The impact of relative residence times on the distribution of heavy drinkers in highly distinct environments

Alcohol consumption is a function of social dynamics, environmental contexts, individuals' preferences and family history. Empirical surveys have focused primarily on identification of risk factors for high-level drinking but have done little to clarify the underlying mechanisms at work. Also, there have been few attempts to apply nonlinear dynamics to the study of these mechanisms and processes at the population level. A simple framework where drinking is modeled as a socially contagious process in low- and high-risk connected environments is introduced. Individuals are classified as light, moderate (assumed mobile), and heavy drinkers. Moderate drinkers provide the link between both environments, that is, they are assumed to be the only individuals drinking in both settings. The focus here is on the effect of moderate drinkers, measured by the proportion of their time spent in “low-” versus “high-” risk drinking environments, on the distribution of drinkers.A simple model within our contact framework predicts that if the relative residence times of moderate drinkers are distributed randomly between low- and high-risk environments then the proportion of heavy drinkers is likely to be higher than expected. However, the full story even in a highly simplified setting is not so simple because “strong” local social mixing tends to increase high-risk drinking on its own. High levels of social interaction between light and moderate drinkers in low-risk environments can diminish the importance of the distribution of relative drinking times on the prevalence of heavy drinking.     

商业银行学习模式与竞争力培育互动关系研究

银行的学习能力对其保持长久的生命力至关重要,而构建与竞争力培育实践相结合的学习模式更是我国银行的现实选择和客观要求.本文首先从理论上分析了银行学习与竞争力培育的互动关系,并从国外银行的实践角度进行了实证分析,认为基于竞争力构建学习模式是银行发展的必然选择;然后,对我国银行基于竞争力构建学习模式的意义进行了阐述,指出其具有较好的应用前景;最后,提出了基于竞争力的三个层面学习模式.本文认为,基于我国银行现有的学习能力,应该采取相关的辅助性策略,以各种支持性措施逐步提高学习能力,从而缩短学习与竞争力培育的距离,渐次推进学习模式的演化.     

The M/M\1 queue in a heavy-tailed random environment

We consider an M / M /1 queue with the special feature that the speed of the server alternates between two constant values s_L and s_H > s_L . The high-speed periods are exponentially distributed, and the low-speed periods have a regularly varying distribution. We obtain explicit asymptotics for the tail of the workload distribution. The two cases in which the offered traffic load is smaller respectively larger than the low service speed are shown to result in completely different asymptotics.     

浅谈心理学的历史形态

在很多人看来,心理学上曾经存在着两种历史形态,即哲学心理学和科学心理学;但近年来,也有学者从多角度考察,认为心理学在自身的演变和发展过程中,存在着不同的和多样的历史形态,包括常识心理学、哲学心理学、宗教心理学、类科学心理学和科学心理学。     

家电企业逆向物流的运作模式研究

随着各国纷纷制定更加严格的环境保护法规，加强对环境的保护和管理，家电企业构建绿色供应链已是刻不容缓，这对提高产品竞争力、实施可持续发展具有重大意义，而废旧家电的逆向物流体系的构建是实施绿色供应链管理的关键一环。文章对家电企业逆向物流的基本运作模式做了分析，并提出了相关的对策。     

Predicting multi-faceted activity-travel adjustment strategies in response to possible congestion pricing scenarios using an Internet-based stated adaptation experiment

This paper reports the estimation of several discrete choice models describing reactions of individuals to congestion pricing scenarios. The models were estimated on data obtained in a stated adaptation experiment that was administered through the Internet and designed to examine how individuals adjust their activity-travel patterns. An activity-based approach is used meaning that all choice facets of activity patterns are taken into account as well as a complete set of activities. Estimates of price elasticities of travel demand are in line with other findings reported in the literature. Results of the stated adaptation experiment suggest that changing route or departure time is the most important way of adapting work trips, whereas public transport and working at home play a more limited role. For non-work activities changing route and switching to bike are the dominant responses.     

“黄-蓝经济区”区域差异及互动发展探究

本研究分析了“黄-蓝经济区”互动发展存在的问题,探讨了其互动发展的机制（包括内部机制和外部机制）。对利用基尼系数方法对“黄-蓝经济区”1980年以来的区域发展差异进行了分析,得出其互动发展的最大问题是区域差异系数过小,即区域内发展过于均衡。然后基于空间分析理论,提出了“黄-蓝经济区”互动发展的空间模式,即按照发展时间依次为增长极模式、轴线模式和网络发展模式。     

郑州市城市农业发展现状与创新发展模式策略研究

[目的]城市农业与城市的经济、生态、社会、文化融为一体,是解决目前我国城市发展过程中面临的资源紧缺、劳动力问题、生态环境恶化和可持续发展等问题的有效途径之一,集生产、生活、生态、示范等多种功能于一体。郑州市人口众多,对城市农业的需求强烈,政府高度重视城市农业发展,将其确定为"十三五"规划发展的重点内容之一。[方法]文章通过现场调研、访谈调研和文献调研等形式,分析了郑州市中心城区各种城市农业类型的发展现状,在补充市民食物供给、改善市民生活环境、丰富市民生活和促进农业文化传承四方面的发展需求。[结果]计算了平面和立体上的城市农业发展空间,包括平面空间上的2.5万hm2耕地和58.35km2公共绿地,立体空间上的115万m2阳台农业发展空间、230万m2屋顶农业发展空间、2 300万m2墙体垂直农业发展空间。[结论]提出了"十三五"期间郑州市应大力推进阳台农业和农业主题公园模式,引导规范休闲农园、屋顶农业和庭院农业模式,适量引进垂直农业、社区农园、植物工厂和公共绿化农业模式的建议,为促进郑州市城市农业发展提供决策参考。     

浙江渔业发展与可持续发展研究

浙江是我国重点渔业省份,其发展海洋渔业经济具有得天独厚的经济区位优势,浙江渔业在全国具有举足轻重的地位。论文在回顾浙江渔业发展的历史进程并总结浙江渔业发展取得的成绩与经验基础上,探讨了浙江渔业发展规律,提出浙江渔业可持续发展的战略选择。     

山东省海岛渔业板块空间布局及发展模式分析

海岛渔业是山东省海洋渔业的一个重要组成部分,由于山东海岛布局分散,发展模式混乱,海岛渔业生产效率低下。重构海岛渔业板块的空间布局,根据海岛空间特征重新配置渔业资源,创新渔业发展模式,对海岛的空间结构和产业结构进行整合,已经成为山东省海岛渔业可持续发展的重要路径。需从提升综合效益、完善基础设施、重构开发次序等角度对海岛渔业板块进一步优化。