Relative Valuation with Machine Learning

We use machine learning for relative valuation and peer firm selection. In out-of-sample tests, our machine learning models substantially outperform traditional models in valuation accuracy. This outperformance persists over time and holds across different types of firms. The valuations produced by machine learning models behave like fundamental values. Overvalued stocks decrease in price and undervalued stocks increase in price in the following month. Determinants of valuation multiples identified by machine learning models are consistent with theoretical predictions derived from a discounted cash flow approach. Profitability ratios, growth measures, and efficiency ratios are the most important value drivers throughout our sample period. We derive a novel method to express valuation multiples predicted by our machine learning models as weighted averages of peer firm multiples. These weights are a measure of peer–firm comparability and can be used for selecting peer-groups.     

Decomposing the changes in poverty: Poverty line and distributional effects

When measuring poverty in developed countries, the poverty line used to identify the poor is usually relative and set as a percentage of the median (or of the mean) of the total income. In consequence, when poverty is analyzed over a period of time, changes in the poverty level depend on the impact of evolving standards. To eliminate this effect, sometimes, an anchored poverty line is used. Furthermore, changes in the mean of the distribution and in the inequality among the poor may also affect the poverty levels. This note proposes a decomposition of the changes in poverty as the sum of four terms. The first two reflect the impact in poverty of changes in living standards and the other two measure the effect of the distributional growth and redistribution. This decomposition will help policymakers in the implementation of a more specific antipoverty agenda. An application with data from the European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions shows the potential of the decomposition proposed.     

西北民族地区产业结构变迁的减贫效应模型分析

[目的]随着我国社会经济发展进入新时代,在新的发展理念下解决相对贫困和区域深度贫困问题成为扶贫工作重点。在此背景下,探讨产业结构变迁对缓解民族地区相对贫困的影响,具有重要的理论与现实意义。[方法]文章以"相对农民人均纯收入增长率"作为相对贫困的表征指标,对2006—2014年西北民族地区61个国家级扶贫重点县相对贫困变动情况进行了测算。在此基础上,利用面板数据,对产业结构变迁整体效应进行逐步回归分析,并通过构建工具变量对回归结果进行稳健性检验。[结果]西北民族地区的经济增长主要依靠第二产业的快速发展,虽然所有地区都表现出第二产业的不足或定位不高的现象,但是对于拉动整体经济和构建产业链仍然具有不可替代的作用。受传统因素的影响,第二产业的从业人员数量很少,大量从业人员仍然集中于第一产业。[结论]由于扶贫体制机制存在的问题,贫困人口由第二产业发展的直接获益有限。贫困人口的主要获益方式仍然是政府主导的国民收入再配,所以财政支出对于贫困变动始终具有明显的正向效应。做好西北民族地区的扶贫工作,应当加大扶贫政策的倾斜力度,加强扶贫对象和措施的精准性,着重智力扶贫和技能扶贫措施。     

A Canadian Response to the Pursuit of Global Sustainability Reporting Standards*

As business, government, and society continue to emphasize the importance of sustainability—both of individual organizations and of the natural world—accounting standard-setting bodies want to be part of the process. In September 2020, in response to “urgent and growing demand” for more “consistent and comparable” sustainability reporting, the IFRS Foundation (the Foundation) released for comment a Consultation Paper on Sustainability Reporting. In the paper, the Foundation proposed the creation of a Sustainability Standards Board (SSB), which it would oversee alongside the IASB. The SSB would become, de facto, the global sustainability reporting standard setter. The Foundation received 577 responses to its proposal. These responses came from around the world and from a wide range of stakeholders. Thirty-eight of the responses came from Canada. This study profiles the Canadian responses, contrasting them with the wider set of worldwide responses. Some uniquely Canadian features include user responses from a large number of pension funds and preparer responses solely from the energy sector. There was also a significant response from the Canadian accounting community, including from the full set of Canadian standard-setting organizations. Five auditors general also responded. Overall, Canadian respondents supported both globalized sustainability reporting standards and the Foundation's creation of the SSB. This support aligns Canada's response with the worldwide response.     

Relative deprivation,time preference,and economic growth

We study the growth process among a large group of economies where consumption relative to a reference group determines the discount factor of the household agents. We characterize all possible balanced growth paths and their stability properties. The model can explain why two economies having similar production technologies, preferences, and total factor productivity growth rates can differ in labor supply behavior and have diverging growth paths depending on their initial conditions. Numerical analysis of the model suggests that growth path divergence is plausible based on cross-country differences in savings rates. History dependence on time preference also generates realistic transitional dynamics.     

客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的影响研究

基于资源依赖理论和信号传递理论，利用手工收集的供应商企业-客户对均为上市公司的数据，系统考察客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的影响。研究发现，客户盈余表现越好，越能促进供应商企业的创新投资。调节作用研究发现，供应链关系越稳定、越趋于良性，供应链企业的协同效应越明显，即高盈余客户对供应商企业创新投资的正向影响越强；企业与客户的产品多元化程度越低，客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的正向影响越显著；高盈余客户通过降低供应商企业经营风险促进了供应商企业创新投资。进一步分析发现，供应商企业市场竞争程度越高、融资约束程度越高、客户相对议价能力越强，客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的正向影响越会显著增强。研究结论拓展了客户盈余表现经济后果的理论边界，对推动供应链整合及供给侧结构性改革具有重要的启示意义。     

Can China's new rural pension scheme alleviate the relative poverty of rural households? An empirical analysis based on the PSM-DID method

Based on five-period panel data from the China Family Panel Studies 2010–2018, this paper uses the propensity score matching difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) method to comprehensively evaluate the effects of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on alleviating rural households' relative poverty. At the same time, based on the theory of sustainable livelihoods of rural households, the mediating effects model is applied to analyse the mechanism of rural households' livelihood capital. The results of the study are as follows. (1) The NRPS helps alleviate the relative poverty of rural households. (2) The livelihood capital of rural households is an important mechanism for the NRPS to alleviate the relative poverty of rural households, and social capital, financial capital, and human capital all play a part in the mediating effect. (3) The results of the heterogeneity tests based on the stage of rural households' participation in the NRPS and the region of participation in the NRPS indicate that the governance effects of the NRPS on rural households' relative poverty are more significant among households in the contributory stage and the central and western regions. Additionally, the results are supported by robustness tests, such as replacing the dependent variable and the PSM method. The findings of this paper have important implications for the establishment of a long-term mechanism to address relative poverty and the construction of a more efficient and inclusive rural social pension insurance system in China and other developing countries.     

Herbal Pharma Inc.: Conducting an Effective Group Audit*

As the relative weight of global economic activity continues to shift toward non-OECD countries (OECD 2018), audit firms are more likely to encounter clients with significant business operations in foreign jurisdictions. The associated need to engage and oversee local component auditors in these jurisdictions can lead to challenges arising from different business cultures and the resulting intra-audit miscommunications. Audit deficiencies related to these challenges have been detected by regulators (PCAOB 2011, 2010; CPAB 2012, 2015). Standard setters such as the IAASB and the Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (AASB) have responded by issuing an exposure draft proposing revisions to ISA 600 (IAASB 2020) and CAS 600 (AASB 2020) to strengthen the auditor's approach and provide enhanced guidance to practitioners. In light of this evolving area of assurance, this case was developed to deepen students' understanding of both group and component audits in an international context. The case takes the perspective of the group auditor and features an audit senior in a specialized role overseeing the component audit of a client's increasingly material Chinese subsidiary. Deficiencies in the prior year component audit, along with a change in the component auditor, further underlines the importance of robust risk analysis for the upcoming engagement.     

基于熵权TOPSIS模型的农业绿色发展水平评价与障碍因素分析以江西省为例

目的 通过揭示特定区域的农业绿色发展水平及其影响因素,为提升江西省农业绿色发展水平提供理论依据。方法 文章以首批国家生态文明试验区的江西省为研究对象,从资源利用、环境影响、生态保育以及经济效益等4个维度,选取契合江西省农业发展的特色指标构建了农业绿色评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS组合模型以及障碍度模型对江西省农业绿色发展状况进行了实证分析。结果 2008—2017年江西省农业绿色发展水平总体呈现上升的趋势,优化程度属于中水平及以上;各一级指标整体上也表现出上升的趋势;对江西省农业绿色发展起阻碍作用的为资源利用、环境影响与经济效应,而生态保育起到较大的支撑作用。结论 推动江西省农业绿色发展要转变传统农业发展理念,加快农业绿色发展创新,建立农业生态环境综合治理机制,强化农业生态环境保护与修复,实现农业经济与生态协调发展。     

城乡建设用地市场一体化测度及实证分析

研究目的：基于2015—2020年浙江省德清县与广东省南海区的城乡建设用地市场交易数据，实证分析产权的市场分割效应，定量测度城乡建设用地市场一体化水平并进行对比分析。研究方法：OLS回归，时空地理加权回归，倾向得分匹配与相对价格法。研究结果：（1）产权的市场分割效应显著且存在地区差异，集体产权在南海区正向影响建设用地价格,而在德清县反之；（2）地区间城乡建设用地市场一体化进程不一，集体建设用地市场发育更为成熟的南海区城乡建设用地市场一体化水平为1.707，相较于德清县的0.880领先；（3）同一地区不同区域的城乡建设用地市场一体化水平也存在分化，集体经营性建设用地以异地调整入市为特色的德清县相较于政府整备入市的南海区城乡建设用地市场一体化的内部差异更小。研究结论：产权依旧是城乡建设用地市场一体化面临的主要制度性壁垒，不同地区及其内部城乡建设用地市场一体化分异明显。未来在深入推进土地权利权能平等，改善集体建设用地区位劣势的同时，也需进一步关注城乡建设用地市场一体化在区域协调发展中的作用。