边疆民族地区人口结构预测及优化对策研究——以云南省为例

人口结构问题对边疆民族地区社会经济发展的制约作用越来越明显。对人口结构进行预测,把握人口结构发展趋势,制定人口结构对策对社会经济发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。优化云南人口结构的对策是：调整生育政策;发挥年龄结构优势使劳动适龄人口充分就业;利用主体功能区划进行人口布局的合理规划。     

沿海地区科技创新和数字经济的耦合协调度研究

选取2013—2020年沿海地区数据,运用熵权法、耦合协调度和灰色预测模型,探究沿海地区科技创新和数字经济的耦合协调关系。研究表明：沿海地区科技创新能力整体呈上升状态,北部沿海地区起点较高,但上升幅度不大;3个地区数字经济发展大体呈稳步上升态势,北部和南部沿海地区2020年有些许下降;3个地区区域科技创新和数字经济的耦合协调度均稳步上升,北部沿海地区为良好协调状态,东部和南部沿海地区为优质协调状态。     

Diffusion of Products with Limited Supply and Known Expiration Date

In this paper, we provide a model for diffusion of products, which are available in limited quantity until a known expiration date, after which the unsold products have no value. We consider the case of a performing arts company. The model development is built on the foundation of classical product diffusion model by Bass (1969) and the psychological effect known as the scarcity principle (Cialdini, 1985). Our empirical analysis results show that the proposed model can provide significant improvement in prediction of the products characterized by the scarcity effect.     

“十一五”我国建筑业发展预测模型建立和应用

基于灰色理论建立建筑业的GM(1,1)发展预测模型,对我国建筑业的发展进行预测,并运用多元回归预测模型进行验证比较,两种不同的预测方法得出的结论是一致的,“十一五”期间我国建筑业将继续保持较快增长。     

An Easily Implemented Framework for Forecasting Ticket Sales to Performing Arts Events

This paper presents an easily used framework for modeling ticket sales to performing arts and entertainment events. Unlike existing efforts in this area, our framework allows us to: (1) model demand for events that consist of more than a single performance; (2) account for the influence of promotional effort on ticket sales; and (3) account for sellouts of some performances. The framework is applied to ticket sales for a university theater company, where it predicts ticket sales well in both an estimation and holdout sample. We discuss how the framework has influenced the company's marketing decisions.     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

Liquidity provision and optimal bank regulation

We extend the set of regulatory instruments for banks' liquidity provision by adding a policy instrument for controlling the fraction of perfectly-liquid accounts. We demonstrate how this instrument induces self-selection on behalf of depositors who are differentiated according to their probability of facing a liquidity shock. This self-selection leads to a market segmentation, which can break the bundling of deposits with liquidity risk and, thereby, enhance welfare. The optimal regulatory policy is explicitly characterized as a function of banks' investment return, and of depositors' gain from early withdrawals to fund a realized investment opportunity.     

中国上市公司业绩增长持续性及市场预测

上市公司的业绩增长能力对公司价值具有非常显著的影响,投资者希望找到市场上具有持续稳定成长性的公司。本文考察了公司业绩的增长水平,业绩增长的持续性以及市场对公司业绩增长的预测能力。本文发现公司业绩增长不具有持续性,呈现较大的波动性,投资者无法通过公司历史业绩增长情况预测未来业绩增长。市场对公司的未来业绩增长的预测能力较弱,只能预测大约未来3年时间的业绩增长情况,对更长时间的业绩增长无法预测。这可能与中国股市政策变动频繁,上市公司存在较多利润操纵行为有关。     

“预测”在英语听力理解中的运用

英语听力是英语学习中的一个难点,本文另辟角度,从几个方面运用“预测”的技巧来提高学生的英语听力理解水平。     

Trust or not: Heuristics for making trust-based choices in HR management

The present two studies examine how the participants (i.e., 150 managers) make trust-based employee selection in hypothetical situations, based on five cues of trustworthiness derived from previous surveys. In Study 1, each executive participant is presented with a pair of candidates with different cue profiles so that the choice would favor one of them based upon each of the four following heuristics: Franklin's rule, likelihood expectancy, take-the-best (TTB), and minimum requirement (MR). Study 2 adopting a within-subject design jointly compares the four heuristics. The results show that simple heuristics (MR and TTB) outperform the more complex strategies (Franklin's rule and likelihood expectancy) in their predictive accuracy. The MR heuristic, a heuristic tallying the frequency of passes against a set of minimal rather than optimal or satisfactory requirements, performs even better than the TTB heuristic, particularly when the number of the cues identified as MRs is small.