Equity Risk Premium Puzzle: Evidence from Indonesia and Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the equity risk premium puzzle in the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets in order to identify the relationship between the volatility of excess returns and the equity risk premium. The asymmetric impact of negative shocks on the equity risk premium is also examined using threshold and exponential GARCH-M models. We analyse data on the excess returns of the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets from 2004 to 2013, and we find that the impact of the conditional volatility of excess returns on the equity risk premium is not significant in either country. Instead, we find an impact from negative return shocks on the equity risk premium only in Sri Lanka. Therefore, we conclude that investors are not compensated for the conditional volatility of the excess returns in these two markets, while Sri Lankan investors are compensated for the risk of negative shocks.     

基于生态位理论的弱势旅游地发展态势及开发策略研究 ——以粤北山区为例

为优化粤北山区产业结构调整,促进区域旅游经济均衡协调发展,收集2013—2017年粤北山区5个城市旅游资源、旅游市场、社会经济、生态环境四大维度的统计数据,运用生态位理论,对其旅游生态位发展态势、生态位扩充程度进行评测与排序。从分析结果可见,韶关综合生态位排名第一,为粤北山区旅游城市中的双核心城市。韶关、梅州旅游业发展态势良好,处于扩充状态,其区域旅游业影响力日益增强。通过粤北山区旅游生态位综合分析,可见要实现区域协调均衡发展,重点在于搭建区域旅游一体化合作平台,致力于产业集聚与优势互补,注重旅游经济投入与产出比优化,从而实现弱势旅游地的突围与转型。     

The visible hand: the role of government in China’s long-awaited industrial revolution

China is undergoing its long-awaited industrial revolution. There is no shortage of commentary and opinion on this dramatic period, but few have attempted to provide a coherent, in-depth, political-economic framework that explains the fundamental mechanisms behind China’s rapid industrialization. This article reviews the Embryonic Economic Development theory put forth by Wen (2016a). This article reviews the Embryonic Economic Development theory put forth by Wen . It illuminates the critical sequence of developmental stages since the reforms enacted by Deng Xiaoping in 1978: namely, small-scale commercialized agricultural production, proto-industrialization in the countryside, a formal industrial revolution based on mass production of labor-intensive light consumer goods, a sustainable ‘industrial trinity’ boom in energy/motive power/infrastructure, and a second industrial revolution involving the mass production of heavy industrial goods. This developmental sequence follows essentially the same pattern as Great Britain’s Industrial Revolution, despite sharp differences in political and institutional conditions. One of the key conclusions exemplified by China’s economic rise is that the extent of industrialization is limited by the extent of the market. One of the key strategies behind the creation and nurturing of a continually growing market in China is based on this premise: The free market is a public good that is very costly for nations to create and support. Market creation requires a powerful ‘mercantilist’ state and the correct sequence of developmental stages; China has been successfully accomplishing its industrialization through these stages, backed by measured, targeted reforms and direct participation from its central and local governments.     

A robust VaR model under different time periods and weighting schemes

This paper analyses several volatility models by examining their ability to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) for two different time periods and two capitalization weighting schemes. Specifically, VaR is calculated for large and small capitalization stocks, based on Dow Jones (DJ) Euro Stoxx indices and is modeled for long and short trading positions by using non parametric, semi parametric and parametric methods. In order to choose one model among the various forecasting methods, a two-stage backtesting procedure is implemented. In the first stage the unconditional coverage test is used to examine the statistical accuracy of the models. In the second stage a loss function is applied to investigate whether the differences between the models, that calculated accurately the VaR, are statistically significant. Under this framework, the combination of a parametric model with the historical simulation produced robust results across the sample periods, market capitalization schemes, trading positions and confidence levels and therefore there is a risk measure that is reliable.

Regulatory Capital Arbitrage and the Potential Competitive Impact of Basel II in the Market for Residential Mortgages

U.S. banking regulators have proposed a bifurcated system of capital regulation where the largest, internationally active banking organizations would be subject to significantly more risk sensitive regulatory capital requirements than are currently in place, while most others would remain subject to the current rules. The proposed new capital regime has the potential to affect the competitive landscape among banking institutions, particularly in the area of residential mortgage lending. We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed, bifurcated regulatory capital system on competition in the residential mortgage market from the perspective of the theory of regulatory capital arbitrage. We then apply the theory and available evidence to perform some benchmark calculations that suggest a significant, potential shift of market share and income to the largest banking institutions in the mortgage market.

The optimal asset allocation of the main types of pension funds: a unified framework

The existing literature deals with the optimal investment strategy of defined benefit (DB) or defined contribution (DC) pension plans. This article’s objective is to compare the optimal policies of different types of pension plans. This is done by first defining an original framework, which is based on the distinction between the nature of the guarantee—which can be internal or external—offered by or to a pension fund. This framework allows to establish links between optimization programs of DC, DB and targeted money purchase schemes. The case of an internal guarantee appears as a standard portfolio insurer’s problem. The second kind of guarantee, not analyzed in the literature yet with regard to the resulting optimal policy, is characterized by the existence of an option in the final wealth definition. Four funds are present in the internal guarantee optimal allocation: the speculative component, the preference independent guarantee- and contribution-hedge terms and the preference dependent state variable-hedge fund. The external guarantee program, solved with an original method using the principles of standard options theory, yields an optimal policy incorporating the delta of the option embodied in the final wealth definition. The conclusion is that the resulting optimal portfolio policy becomes riskier.

企业非相关多元化经营的战略路径与风险规避——基于春兰集团多元化经营战略案例研究

春兰集团是中国较早走上多元化之路的大型企业集团,先后进军摩托车、卡车、高能动力镍氢电池、投资贸易等领域,形成了产品多元化经营的格局。春兰集团实施非相关多元化经营的战略路径是:以掌握产业核心技术为战略核心;以企业并购为战略重点;以整体绩效为战略目标。企业非相关多元化经营的风险甚大,必须采取相应措施予以规避:科学选择多元化经营的进入领域;确保企业的核心竞争力不受削弱;注意"协同效应";保持合理的负债水平;要注重规模经济的效应。     

交叉销售视角下企业多元化战略风险研究

交叉销售在服务业和高科技行业的兴起,使得越来越多的企业开始从事基于交叉销售的多元化战略.这类多元化战略同时具有多元化战略的一般性特征,又带有交叉销售背景下的特殊性.本文在对多元化战略的风险及交叉销售相关研究加以逐一回顾的基础上,对基于交叉销售的多元化战略与一般性多元化战略的差异进行了比较,并对其所具有的风险进行了深入的探讨.     

商业银行内部控制低效的成因及模式重构

我国商业银行金融风险的产生多是由内部控制低效造成,而内部控制低效又源于控制模式的不规范.因此,研究这一课题具有重要的理论价值和现实意义.为探索提高内部控制效果的有效途径,本文在分析我国商业银行内部控制低效成因的基础上,根据COSO报告和ERM的要求,构建了要素式动态控制的立体模式,并对这一模式的构成及其运行方式等进行了深入研究,为商业银行规范内部控制行为和降低金融风险提供了一种行之有效的管理手段.     

Value at Risk and Economic Growth

The improvement of data statistics as well as the econometrician methods have facilitated the introduction the new variables and factors I the economic growth analysis. In this sense, real variables have mainly been considered in the economic growth studies, but not financial or risk management aspects. In this sense, it is interesting to analyze the relationship between economic growth and value at risk and the feed-back process. The goal of the paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth and risk management and the feed-back process. We will consider economic variables, including economic growth, rule of law, human capital, fiscal policy and monetary policy, among others, in our analysis. We will analyze the theoretical relationships between these variables and risk and the effects of risk on economic growth. We will also develop an empirical analysis considering the case of 15 European Union countries.