自然垄断产业规制改革过程中的风险研究

我国在社会主义市场经济体制建立过程中,逐步开始了以引入竞争、提高效率为目标的自然垄断产业规制改革.但是,在规制改革过程中,要面临许多不确定的风险.国内外对自然垄断产业的规制经验、教训表明,能否有效地控制规制过程中引发的风险在很大程度上决定了规制改革的绩效,甚至影响到对规制改革本身的评价.引发规制风险的因素很多,但总的来看,主要集中在规制本身、市场、政府规制行为不规范这三个方面.分析了上述三方面所引发的规制风险产生的原因,并根据我国目前自然垄断产业规制现状提出了若干建议,以化解规制改革中面临的风险.     

新时期我国金融安全面临的挑战及对策

金融全球化、自由化、电子化三大发展趋势,一方面是金融业务高速增长的重要动力,另一方面是金融风险不断增大的主要诱因.由于国内金融体系的薄弱环节较多,国际金融规则存在严重缺陷,新时期我国金融安全面临的挑战相当严峻.为此,我国必须深化金融机构体制改革,改进金融监管体制,构建多层次的金融市场体系,适度控制金融市场开放的进程,完善金融监管法律体系.     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

关于食品安全问题的几点思考

食品安全从社会层面来看,不仅是公共卫生问题,而是社会问题、政治问题,甚至是社会安定团结问题。因此,食品安全问题科学管治意义重大。针对目前的治理现状,笔者从立法、市场行为价值取向、执法监管及媒介引导四个角度进行了思考,并对这些问题提出了建议性意见。     

基于BP神经网络的房地产项目前期风险评价研究

本文从开发商的角度,在分析房地产项目前期风险因素的基础上,构建其指标体系,建立基于BP神经网络的风险评价模型,然后选取若干组样本作为训练集在MATLAB7.0环境中对模型进行训练,最后用测试集验证模型在房地产项目前期风险评价方面的可行性。     

输变电工程质量管理探析

输变电工程项目属于资金技术密集型项目,同时,项目施工的工程环境相对较差。如何保证项目的合理实施,是对输变电工程项目管理的重要考验。本文针对相关的质量风险体系和层次方法进行阐述,供同行参考。     

基于股利偏好角度的证券市场协整关系研究

运用协整分析方法对混合股利投资组合指数、现金股利投资组合指数、无股利投资组合指数三类指数与上证指数之间的长期均衡关系进行分析,并利用误差修正模型对三类指数从短期偏离向长期均衡恢复的动态调整速度进行检验,研究结果显示：具备市场偏好的混合股利投资组合指数与上证指数之间的协整关系最弱,从短期偏离向长期均衡修复的时间最长;不具备市场偏好的现金股利投资组合指数与上证指数之间的协整关系最强,从短期偏离向长期均衡修复的时间最短;不具备市场偏好的无股利投资组合指数与上证指数之间的协整关系较强,从短期偏离向长期均衡修复的时间较短。     

Regret theory and the banking firm: The optimal bank interest margin

This paper examines the optimal bank interest margin, i.e., the spread between the loan rate and the deposit rate of a bank, when the bank is not only risk-averse but also regret-averse. Regret-averse preferences are characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that the presence of regret aversion raises or lowers the optimal bank interest margin than the one chosen by the purely risk-averse bank, depending on whether the probability of default is below or above a threshold value, respectively. Regret aversion as such makes the bank less prudent and more prone to risk-taking when the probability of default is high, thereby adversely affecting the stability of the banking system.     

Development of a Fuzzy optimization model,supporting global warming decision-making

An increasing number of models have been developed to support global warming response policies. The model constructors are facing a lot of uncertainties which limit the evidence of these models. The support of climate policy decision-making is only possible in a semi-quantitative way, as presented by aFuzzy model. The model design is based on an optimization approach, integrated in a bounded risk decision-making framework. Given some regional emission-related and impact-related restrictions, optimal emission paths can be calculated. The focus is not only on carbon dioxide but on other greenhouse gases too. In the paper, the components of the model will be described. Cost coefficients, emission boundaries and impact boundaries are represented asFuzzy parameters. TheFuzzy model will be transformed into a computational one by using an approach of Rommelfanger. In the second part, some problems of applying the model to computations will be discussed. This includes discussions on the data situation and the presentation, as well as interpretation of results of sensitivity analyses. The advantage of theFuzzy approach is that the requirements regarding data precision are not so strong. Hence, the effort for data acquisition can be reduced and computations can be started earlier.     

加强医院财务管理的对策分析

随着医疗改革的逐步深入,医院市场化竞争越来越激烈,财务管理作为医院管理的重要组成部,其重要作用越来越明显。在市场经济条件下,医院应当通过各种有效途径强化医院财务管理,如加强成本核算、降低消耗水平,使医院得到可持续发展。