以市场检验推动公共服务型政府建设

20世纪80年代以来,在"新公共管理"运动的推动下,以英国、新西兰、澳大利亚为代表的一些国家普遍实行了"公共服务市场化"改革。这一改革浪潮席卷世界,并逐步发展成为大多数国家转变政府职能的一种主流模式。实践证明,与传统的政府"自给自足"和"垄断供应"模式相比,以市场检验为标志的公共服务改革大大降低了公共服务供给成本,提高了公共服务效率,改善了公共部门运行绩效,并为充分运用市场力量推动政府改革提供了新的机遇和动力。     

促进科技进步的税收政策研究

税收政策对科技进步具有重要影响。我国现行科技税收政策尚有不完善之处,需要根据国家产业政策、科技发展规划和税制改革方向进行适当调整。调整的思路是:扩大增值税抵扣范围;允许工业企业提取研究与开发基金;实行加速折旧或摊销办法;突破区域和内外资企业的限定,对高科技企业实行同一税收政策;对个人科技所得实施税收优惠;等等。     

ON THE CONSISTENCY OF REGRESSION‐BASED MONTE CARLO METHODS FOR PRICING BERMUDAN OPTIONS IN CASE OF ESTIMATED FINANCIAL MODELS

In many applications of regression‐based Monte Carlo methods for pricing, American options in discrete time parameters of the underlying financial model have to be estimated from observed data. In this paper suitably defined nonparametric regression‐based Monte Carlo methods are applied to paths of financial models where the parameters converge toward true values of the parameters. For various Black–Scholes, GARCH, and Levy models it is shown that in this case the price estimated from the approximate model converges to the true price.     

Analysis on Balance Gap between Saving and Credit Account in China

In China, the balance gap of credit and saving account emerged in 1995, and its amount enlarged since then. By the end of Dec. 2005, with 28.7 trillion RMB saving balance and 19.5 trillion RMB gross credit account balance, the gap between saving and credit account was as large as 9.2 trillion RMB, which indicated a 67.8% of credit/saving ratio. Some believed this phenomenon was resulted from on one hand, the rapid growth of saving account; and on the other hand, relatively slower expanding of credit account. Some believed cooling down cash demand was behind the gap, while others claimed the balance gap caused dead capital and inefficiency service of saving account. In fact, the balance gap between credit and saving account might not necessarily relate to dead bank capital. And the phenomenon itself could not indicate the down-tendency of finance power that underlay economy. Nevertheless, it was liquidity not the balance gap should be regarded an index of capital situation in financial organizations. Therefore the balance gap between saving account and credit account could not be viewed as criteria against liquidity position. Solution of this problem should lay in boosting financial innovation among commercial banks, expending capital market and encouraging or permitting commercial banks as well as state-owed funds to enter share market and so on.     

VaR准确性检验的贝叶斯方法

文章对VaR准确性检验的失败检验法进行了分析,提出了一种新的失败检验法,即贝叶斯检验法。并与传统的正态近似法和Kupiec检验法进行了比较,说明了贝叶斯检验法的合理之处。     

HYSTERESIS IN UNEMPLOYMENT REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL LM UNIT ROOT TESTS WITH HETEROGENEOUS STRUCTURAL BREAKS

This paper applies the panel LM unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks in level by Im  et al. ( Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 67 (2005), pp. 393–419) to re-examine the validity of hysteresis in the unemployment rates of 19 OECD countries. Our empirical findings are favourable to the stationarity of the unemployment rates, i.e., the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is strongly rejected. Our results suggest that shocks to unemployment rates are temporary and soon converge when we control for breaks. A major policy implication of the study is that a fiscal or monetary stabilization policy would not have permanent effects on the unemployment rates of the 19 OECD countries.     

Local asymptotic normality for randomly censored models with applications to rank tests

For randomly right censored models we study the asymptotic behaviour of linear (rank) statistics under local alternatives. The results can be used to evaluate the asymptotic power of the corresponding tests. For instance we treat the question how to choose the best scores in order to derive asymptotically optimal (rank) tests under certain alternatives.     

An approximation to the limit distribution of the epps-pulley test statistic for normality

Summary The approach of Epps and Pulley (1983) based on the empirical characteristic function is one of the most powerful tools for detecting any departures from normality. We obtain the first four moments of the limiting null distribution of the Epps-Pulley Statistic. Johnson- and Pearson curve fitting yields excellent approximations to simulated quantiles, and by modifying the test statistic the procedure may be carried out easily without the use of extensive tables for all sample sizes. Research done while the author was on leave at the University of Gie?en.     

中国金融市场与房地产投资的协整和Granger检验

本文通过对中国1985～2005年金融资产和房地产投资的年度数据进行协整和Granger因果关系检验,发现以金融资产为指标的金融市场和房地产投资之间存在长期和短期的均衡关系及单向因果关系,即金融资产的增加极大地促进了房地产投资总额的增加。     

广州市房地产市场投机度实证分析

基于广州市2003～2009年期间的季度数据,本文构建了广州市房地产价格与区域基本经济指标之间的协整方程,测算出了该期间房地产的基础价值,并藉此进一步求解出了房地产投机度,结果表明:广州市房地产市场投机度低,市场总体安全。