我国沿海地区渔业发展的收敛特征研究

我国沿海地区渔业的加速发展伴随着渔业区域差异的相应变动.借鉴经济增长区域差异的研究思路,分别采用变异系数和傅里叶单位根检验方法对沿海地区渔业发展的σ收敛和β收敛趋势进行检验.研究结果表明,我国沿海地区渔业发展的σ收敛趋势较弱,而β收敛特征集中于渔业发展水平较高的省份,呈现“俱乐部收敛”态势.因此,沿海各省份应根据自身实际情况采取相应措施,提高渔业发展水平,同时推进渔业的区域协调发展.     

DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN GHANA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the factors accounting for inflation dynamics in Ghana using the bounds test and other econometric approaches. We find that real output, nominal exchange rate, broad money supply, nominal interest rate and fiscal deficit play a dominant role in the inflationary process in Ghana. To the extent that output growth by far has the strongest impact on inflation, targeting supply‐side constraints will help moderate price inflation. The paper concludes that inflation in Ghana is explained by a combination of structural and monetary factors consistent with prior studies.     

The inflation rates may accelerate after all: panel evidence from 19 OECD economies

The stationarity of inflation has many important economic implications. Most panel-based empirical studies do not handle cross-sectional dependence, which will result in power distortion. This paper applies a nonlinear IV estimator to calculate the test statistic of panel unit root (Chang in J Econom 110:261–292, 2002), which accounts for general cross-sectional correlation. Using monthly inflation rates, two statistics proposed by Im et al. (J Econom 115:53–74, 2003) reject the unit root; however, the nonlinear IV statistic accepts the unit root. That is, the ignored cross-sectional correlation may lead to over-rejection of the unit root null. In a nutshell, unlike current literature, the inflation rates may accelerate after all.     

Unemployment persistence in OECD countries after the Great Recession

The 2008 economic downturn in the United States resulted in a wave of contractionary effects across many OECD countries. This paper investigates the pattern of the unemployment persistence in the United States and other 28 OECD countries before and after the Great Recession. To detect possible changes in the pattern of unemployment persistence, we employ a mean bias-corrected estimation of the persistence parameter with a rolling window of five years. In addition, we estimate the most likely date of change in the trend function of unemployment to test whether there was any significant change in the pattern of unemployment persistence after the Great Recession. We find significant evidence of a structural break and hysteresis in unemployment rates, with a persistence parameter close to unity, across the United States and other 28 OECD countries. Besides, bootstrap permutation tests show that all half-lives and impulse response functions have significantly changed after the Great Recession. Therefore, our findings call for structural reforms aimed at improving labor market performance, to prevent upward shifts in unemployment across OECD countries from becoming permanent.     

Accounting Regulation,Financial Development,and Economic Growth

It is argued that the sustainability of external debts depends on the stationarity of the current account balance. This study tests for the stationarity of current account deficits for a sample of sixteen Latin American countries, employing a new test, advocated by Breuer et al. (2002), that allows one to test for unit roots in heterogeneous panel data sets. This version of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test involves estimating ADF regressions within a seemingly unrelated regression (SURADF) framework. The benefits of creating a panel to overcome low test power are well known, but this particular test also offers key advantages over existing alternative panel data unit root tests. Unlike previous tests, this one identifies which members from within the panel are responsible for rejecting the null hypothesis of joint nonstationarity. In addition, the SURADF test does not presume disturbances that are independently and identically distributed. Using annual data covering the period 1979-2001, this study finds strong evidence in favor of current account mean-reversion for at least twelve Latin American countries.     

Assessing economic convergence in the EU: is there a perspective for the ‘cohesion countries’?

This article analyses the stochastic income convergence within the EU-15. The empirical analysis uses per capita GDP, in PPP and in constant prices of 2005 for the period 1950 to 2010. Apart from the traditional DF type tests we also account for possible structural changes. In this direction, we employ the Zivot-Andrews (1992) and the Lee-Strazicich (1999, 2003) testing procedures, for one and two breaks, endogenously determined. Furthermore, we apply the Carlino and Mills (1993) methodology proposed for the detection of β-convergence. The overall evidence supports the existence of two discrete clubs, the first by the ‘cohesion countries’ (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) and the second by the remaining members. In particular, there is a clear evidence of convergence within each club, whereas between clubs there is a luck of catching-up effects. Furthermore, investigation of correlation between relative per capita GDP of each country and several factors that are often identified as growth stimulants, namely Total Factor Productivity, FDI, investment and openness confirm, with the exception of Greece, a strong association between these factors and the convergence process. However, progress in the convergence has not been uniform across countries and over time, reflecting the specific interactions between domestic and international factors and their impact on the convergence process of individual countries.     

Sustainability Analysis of Ecotourism on Yao Noi Island,Thailand

International visitor arrivals from Malaysia's 10 major source markets are examined using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain whether shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The LM unit root test with one break is able to reject the unit root null for between 60% of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and 90% of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and slope. The LM unit root test with two breaks is able to reject the unit root null for all source markets, irrespective of how the break is specified. This result suggests that the effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Malaysia from its major markets are only transitory and that Malaysia's tourist sector is sustainable in the long run. Although the effects of shocks are not permanent, we do find that following shocks the growth in tourist arrivals from Malaysia's source markets has generally slowed. This result suggests there is a need to reduce the negative effects of slower growth in the recovery phase.     

树根桩在高压输电线路塔基础加固工程的应用

通过对树根桩在某高压线路塔基础加固的工程实例分析,证明了树根桩在塔基础加固、堤防护坡及冲淤积层较厚的三角洲地区的民宅基础等有广泛的应用前景。     

Cross‐sectional Restrictions on the Spot and Forward Term Structures of Interest Rates and Panel Unit Root Tests

In this paper we examine the stationarity of all the rates comprising the USD, GBP, DM and JPY spot and forward term structures. Instead of focussing on short maturity interest rates, as most other papers do, we perform a detailed analysis of the whole range of spot and forward interest rates of the 4 main currencies. We investigate the issue of stationarity within the framework of an equilibrium interest rate model such as Vasicek (1977), that defines the cross-sectional and time series properties that interest rates of various maturities must satisfy. We show that within a one-factor interest rate model, such as Vasicek, all interest rates are restricted to exhibit the same mean reverting behaviour. This restriction allows us to apply more powerful panel unit root tests. This methodology increases considerably the number of observations available and as a result the power of the unit root tests. The higher power of these tests allows us to demonstrate that there does exist mean reversion on the spot and forward US interest rates and the forward DM and GBP interest rates.     

Cointegration Analysis of Audit Pricing Model: A Panel Unit Root Test Approach

In this study, we provide evidence on the stationarity of real audit fees and the major explanatory variables frequently used in the audit pricing models from a pooled data set, using panel unit root tests developed by Im et al. (1997). The panel unit root test supports the hypothesis of non‐stationarity of audit fees and their major determinants. We demonstrate that variables in the audit pricing model that were previously found to have impact on audit fees may turn out to be useless when more powerful tests like panel tests are applied to these variables. Our evidence implies that failing to employ appropriate procedure to test cointegration and to specify the appropriate model for audit fees and their determinants would generate results that may have exaggerated the effects of some variables on audit fees.