农村合作金融组织的发展及对其草根性的规制

当前在我国农村信用社发生异化、农村合作基金会被取缔后,农民专业合作社的蓬勃发展促使农村资金互助社这种新型农村合作金融组织得到了快速的发展,但由于农村合作金融组织天然的草根性特点,使得其在拥有社员基础广、社员互信度高、管理成本低等优势的同时,不可避免地也存在着合作组织松散化、资产弱、合作凝聚力不强的问题。文章在分析国外成熟的草根性规制经验的基础上,提出了规制我国农村合作金融组织草根劣势的“正反向规制模式”,以期达到维系和激发我国农村合作金融组织强大活力的目的。     

Deregulation of the Australian Wheat Export Market: What Happened to Wheat Prices?

ABSTRACT

This report investigates whether deregulation of the Australian wheat export market induced a structural change in the price data generation process. We analyze the unit root properties of Western Australian wheat price series by testing for the possibility of single and double structural breaks. Daily spot prices for the period of May 20, 2003, to September 14, 2010 are used. We find the wheat price series has a unit root with two structural breaks but neither breaks coincides with the time when the Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008 came into effect on July 1, 2008. The implication of our results is that deregulation was not the main cause of structural breaks in the price series in the sample period.     

中国实际利率平价的KSS非线性单位根检验

中国一直在进行资本和金融项目的渐进改革,通常描述和刻画这一经济规律变化的是利率平价理论。由于近十几年限制我国利率平价的制度约束条件均得到缓解,所以,本文利用基于ESTAR结构的KSS非线性单位根检验分析法,并连同ADF和PP检验一起对我国实际利率平价进行了实证,检验结果表明,实际利率平价假说成立,并遵循非线性稳态过程,利率的非对称调整导致信贷市场和金融市场的信息不对称。这说明短期内实际利率的调整特征是平滑转移的,在长期内,双边国家均无法实施相对独立的货币政策。     

中国金融发展与外贸关系的面板协整检验和因果分析

基于跨省面板数据,运用面板协整理论和面板因果检验方法分析了中国金融发展与对外贸易之间的关系.多种协整检验方法一致表明,金融发展与出口贸易、金融发展与进口贸易之间都存在长期均衡稳定关系;而基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果检验则表明金融发展与对外贸易之间同时存在长、短期双向因果关系.这意味着在金融深化改革和贸易增长方式调整的特殊历史时期,保持金融和贸易政策的有效组合具有十分重要的意义.     

Asymmetric Behaviour of Spanish Regional House Prices

In connection with the housing market, which is presently raising a great deal of concern among the general public, this paper investigates regional housing prices in Spain using variable co-integration techniques. It analyzes the asymmetric behavior in real house prices among the Spanish regions focusing on the study of the long-term relationships over time. This paper raises an important question of the national averages masking important regional asymmetries. Results indicate evidence of co-integration, which suggests a broad grouping of regions based on physical proximity or similar economic characteristics.

Does the Law of One Price Hold within the EU? A Panel Analysis

This paper empirically tests the law of one price by applying unit root tests to three panels consisting of data on 90 consumer price indices for the EU-25, the EU-15 and the 10 new EU member countries that joined the EU in 2004. The four major findings of this paper are: (1) panel unit root tests find evidence of price convergence for about 70% of all product groups, (2) the results are sensitive to the choice of the numeraire country implying that any conclusions must be based on all bilateral combinations, (3) the average half life across all product groups is 2.0 years, (4) the overall evidence for the law of one price is weaker in the 10 new EU member countries than in the EU-15.

新农村建设的品牌策略分析

新农村建设是全面建设小康社会的重要步骤,此项工程的高效实施需要新思路和新策略,各项工作需要落到实处,为此需要围绕以下几个方面展开工作:农民各方面的素质要发生质的变化;基层领导要以独到的视角发展经济;农村的经营策略新;农民成为农村致富的生力军;运作农村经济的制度要新;创建健康向上的农村文化;锻造新农村经济持续发展的政策基础。     

政府支出结构的居民消费效应：1985—2006——基于中部省际数据的实证分析

运用1985--2005年中部省际面板数据对我国地方政府支出结构对居民消费的影响进行实证分析。研究结果显示,中部地方政府支出结构有着不同的消费效应。最后根据我国地方政府支出结构与居民消费关系提出经济建设支出要注意结构上的调整,进一步加大社会文教支出的投入,合理控制行政管理支出,继续推进行政机构改革等政策建议。     

Spatial Nonstationarity and Spurious Regression: the Case with a Row-normalized Spatial Weights Matrix

Abstract

This paper investigates the spurious regression in the spatial setting where the regressant and regressors may be generated from possible nonstationary spatial autoregressive processes. Under the near unit root specification with a row-normalized spatial weights matrix, it is shown that the possible spurious regression phenomena in the spatial setting are relatively weaker than those in the nonstationary time series scenario. The regression estimates might or might not converge to 0. The divergence might occur only when the regressant has a near unit root much closer to unity than that of the regressor. For the t and F statistics, there could be over-rejection of the null of uncorrelatedness under certain situations, but they do not diverge. However, the coefficient of determination R ² converges to 0, which provides strong evidence of the spurious regression even when t and F statistics are large. Simulation results about different statistics are in line with the theoretical results we derive in this paper.

Non-stationnarité spatiale et fausse régression: l'argument pour la matrice de pondération spatiale à normalisation ‘row-normalized’

RÉSUMÉ?La présente communication se penche sur la fausse régression dans les cadres spatiaux, o[ugrave] des variables dépendantes et des variables explicatives peuvent être produites par d’éventuels procédés autorégressifs spatiaux non stationnaires. Dans le cadre de la spécification de la racine quasi-unitaire, avec une matrice de pondération spatiale normalisée ‘row-normalized’, il est démontré que les phénomènes de fausse régression dans les cadres spatiaux sont relativement plus faibles que ceux du scénario à série chronologique non stationnaire. Pour les statistiques t et F, on pourra assister à une sur-réjection du néant de la non corrélation dans certaines circonstances, mais aucune divergence. Toutefois, le coefficient de détermination R² converge vers 0, en apportant ainsi une preuve substantielle de la fausse, même en présence de statistiques t et F élevées. Les résultats des simulations sur différentes statistiques sont en accord avec les résultats théoriques que nous dérivons dans la présente communication.

No estacionariedad espacial y regresión falsa: el caso con la matriz de pesos espaciales standardizada por filas

RÉSUMÉ?Este trabajo investiga la regresión falsa en el ámbito espacial donde la variable dependiente y las variables independientes pueden generarse a partir de posibles procesos autorregresivos espaciales no estacionarios. Bajo la especificación de raíz unitaria con una matriz de pesos espaciales estandarizada por filas, se muestra que los posibles fenómenos de regresión falsa son relativamente más débiles que los del caso de la serie de tiempo no estacionario. En las estadísticas t y F, podría producirse un sobrerrechazo de la hipótesis nula de incorrelación bajo ciertas situaciones, pero no son divergentes. No obstante, el coeficiente de determinación R² converge a 0, lo que ofrece una evidencia fuerte de la regresión falsa incluso cuando las estadísticas t y F son amplias. Los resultados de simulación sobre diferentes estadísticas se mantienen en línea con los resultados teóricos que obtenemos en este trabajo.

     

Re-examining the Fisher Effect: An Application of Small Sample Distributions of the Covariate Unit Root Test

Abstract

This article employs the covariate unit root test proposed by Elliott and Jansson to investigate the stationarity properties of real interest rates. Instead of blindly trusting the asymptotic distribution of the test, we extend Rudebusch's method to estimate its finite sample distributions under the null and alternative hypotheses. With these distributions, we can obtain the probabilities that the test statistic comes from the null and alternative hypotheses, and quantify the asymptotic size as well as the test power for each specific series. Our simulation experiments show that first, due to the higher power raised by the inclusion of covariates, the test can overwhelmingly reject the unit root null for the 16 industrialized countries; secondly, the Ng and Perron tests deliver lower powers in most countries, and thus lead to the false conclusion of non-stationary real interest rates. Finally, allowing for multiple endogenous breaks in the real interest rates provides only stationary evidence in half of the 16 countries.