Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.     

The Impact of Survey Methodology and Context on Central Tendency,Nonresponse and Associations of Subjective Indicators of Government Performance

A comparison is given of (ordinal) measures of trust in government institutions that were collected with the aim of facilitating comparisons between different modes and contexts of data collection. Statistical analyses reveal that the mode effect could amount upto a 10% change of item nonresponse and a 9% change of the level of trust, whereas the context effect could lead upto a 19% change of the bivariate associations of trust. The observed changes of both measures of central tendency and of associations affect conclusions of social scientific research in isolated studies, which implies that comparative studies are seriously hampered by bias related to mode and context, two sources of obscurity adding to the two other threats which are differences of sample source and differences of question phrasing.     

论城市地质工作对城市可持续发展的重大意义——以南京城市地质调查项目为例

总结南京城市地质调查项目的背景、进展、成果与经验,讨论城市地质工作要适应现代城市建设和发展的需求,更好地为经济建设和城市发展服务的必要性,以及南京城市地质工作对促进城市可持续发展、保障城市地质安全的重大意义。     

Current issues and research trends on open-source software communities

Open source software (OSS) projects represent a new paradigm of software creation and development based on hundreds or even thousands of developers and users organised in the form of a virtual community. The success of an OSS project is closely linked to the successful organisation and development of the virtual community of support group. This paper reviews different fields and research topics related to the OSS communities such as collective intelligence, the structure of OSS communities, their success, communities as virtual organisations, motivation, shared knowledge, innovation and learning. The main challenges, results obtained, and the knowledge areas are detailed for each topic.     

基于EM-NB算法的网络调查缺失数据处理方法

将最大期望值算法(EM)与朴素贝叶斯算法(NB)相结合,提出EM-NB算法来填补网络调查中的缺失数据。对比基于处理后的完备数据集的分类统计结果与基于纸质调查得到的分析结果,结果显示,利用EM-NB算法处理缺失数据后的网络调查问卷与纸质调查问卷可得到一致的调查结果。这表明EM-NB算法是一种有效的处理网络调查中缺失数据的方法。     

The persistence of innovation: a panel data investigation on manufacturing firms

This paper represents a contribution to empirical debate on the persistence of innovation in the firm, by exploiting an innovative panel database that, for the first time, links three waves of the Italian Community Innovation Survey with an administrative data source providing economic and financial information for firms in the Italian manufacturing sector, 1996–2003. By using both a dynamic logistic model and a Granger causality approach, we show that in order to innovate successfully it is much more important to have an adequate flow of profits during an appropriate time span rather than high profits only during one period before innovation. Our causality tests prove the existence of a dynamic interaction between innovation and profitability: successful innovation can, in the short run, generate the profitability conditions that can then enhance the financial resources needed to reinvest in new technological opportunities, thus causing the firm to persist in its innovative behaviour. We have also shown that another important source of persistence is represented by past innovative experience. A firm with consolidated innovative behaviour would have a higher probability of future successful innovation with respect to a firm that occasionally (or accidentally) innovates. Persistence in innovation enables a firm to take advantage of substantial technological and organizational learning effects, which improve with time.     

深化事业单位改革问题之我见——基于江苏省事业单位问卷调查的分析

在国有企业和政府管理体制改革已深入进行并取得积极进展的今天,进一步推进事业单位改革已经显得尤为迫切。以江苏省事业单位作为调查对象,全面了解江苏省事业单位改革的情况,在调查问卷数据分析的基础上,对当前体制改革中存在的问题做进一步分析,抓住改革难点,实施重点突破。     

Economic forecasting with evolved confidence indicators

We present a machine-learning method for sentiment indicators construction that allows an automated variable selection procedure. By means of genetic programming, we generate country-specific business and consumer confidence indicators for thirteen European economies. The algorithm finds non-linear combinations of qualitative survey expectations that yield estimates of the expected rate of economic growth. Firms’ production expectations and consumers’ expectations to spend on home improvements are the most frequently selected variables – both lagged and contemporaneous. To assess the performance of the proposed approach, we have designed an out-of-sample iterative predictive experiment. We found that forecasts generated with the evolved indicators outperform those obtained with time series models. These results show the potential of the methodology as a predictive tool. Furthermore, the proposed indicators are easy to implement and help to monitor the evolution of the economy, both from demand and supply sides.     

探究分析GPS技术在地质勘测中的应用

随着科技与时代的发展,GPS技术在各大行业的应用越来越广泛,给交通、运输带来了一定的便利,GPS作为一种全球定位系统,具有较多的优点,其中最值得一提的是其定位的准确性、可靠性,在地质勘测工作中GPS技术是不可或缺的一部分。本文从GPS技术出发,分析了地质勘测工作的特点,对GPS技术在地质勘测中的应用进行探讨。