地方政府公共事业管理的绩效评价与考核

21世纪以来,政府绩效管理作为一种新兴的政府管理机制,不仅继承了传统公共行政对工具和效率的追求,也融合了对公平服务和价值理性的关注。本文立足于我国地方政府公共事业管理的绩效考核,在相关理论的支撑下,对于构建地方政府公共事业管理绩效考核的指标设计、考核现状及存在问题做出了解读,并就如何走出现今地方政府绩效考核的误区做出了应对策略。     

我国遗产税开征的社会情绪、基本常识与共识基础

2013年11月份结束的又一轮关于我国遗产税开征的社会讨论,非常有必要进行梳理、总结和反思。在这次讨论中,我国普通民众对遗产税开征的普遍而强烈的反对声,实质是对我国改革中存在的众多问题和矛盾的紧张、失望、担心、忧虑、不安、不满、厌恶和愤怒等社会情绪的宣泄,但是,各种严重违反当代遗产税基本常识的传言实则起到了乘风放火、火上浇油的作用,而这样的传言之所以能有如此大的影响力,则是因为我国遗产税的开征缺乏坚实的共识基础。因此,必须重视反对我国遗产税开征的社会情绪,普及我国遗产税开征的基本常识,夯实我国遗产税开征的共识基础。     

An economic evaluation of market development programmes for US dairy products

‘This study measured the effectiveness of US dairy export promotion programmes on increasing foreign demand and enhancing producers’ revenues. An import demand equation based on panel data was used to test whether export promotion has a positive and significant impact on US dairy exports. The effects of various promotion scenarios on the dairy market were then simulated, and benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for these programmes were estimated. There were three key findings. First, the combined effort of public and private dairy export promotion expenditures had a positive and statistically significant impact on demand for US dairy products in the world market. The findings indicated that export promotion stimulated total dairy exports by 4.14 billion pounds, on average, per year, which represented 55.8% of total exports. Second, US dairy export promotion has been highly profitable for the nation’s dairy farmers. The calculated BCRs, based on assumed elasticity of supply, ranged from a low of 8.54 for the most elastic assumption to a high of 30.12. Third, from an optimality standpoint, dairy farmers are underinvesting in export promotion. The marginal BCRs ranged from a low of 3.79 to a high of 15.22, which means that, at the margin, increasing export promotion expenditures would be profitable for dairy farmers.     

基于云模型的装备制造业产业链风险评价

将云模型引入风险评价,对装备制造业风险等级进行量化。从产业链的视角,将专家调查法与熵权法相结合识别风险因素,将筛选出的具有显著影响的因素作为评价因子引入云模型,从而降低了风险评估结果的主观性。构建了产业链风险评价指标体系,提出了基于熵权-云模型法的风险评估方法,对装备制造业产业链风险进行了总体评估。通过分析评估结果,提出防范装备制造业产业链风险的对策建议。     

论高校学生社会主义政治文明意识的培养

加强高校学生社会主义政治文明意识的培养 ,是实现社会主义现代化可持续发展的迫切要求 ,应深化“两课”教学改革 ,加强法制教育、党校教育、心理人格培养 ,创新教育和社会实践活动。     

完善我国流通过程评价指标体系的建议

现行流通过程指标体系存在的主要问题是:指标体系不完善;统计制度不健全,设计方法落后;监测体系不完善;与国际统计标准接轨程度低;需要按照与国际惯例接轨的要求,改革与完善流通过程评价指标体系;用新理念、新技术改造流通领域,以信息化带动现代化,实现流通创新;大力推进流通统计制度创新,建立符合国际惯例、适应市场经济要求的流通信息统计机制;加强流通过程评价指标运行的监控,完善多层次的设计和监测体系。     

Exploring the performances and determinants of public service provision in 35 major cities in China from the perspectives of efficiency and effectiveness

The measurement of public service provision (PSP) performance and identification of its influencing variables are of great importance for the government to efficiently utilize public resources and provide more effective public services. However, existing studies have mainly focused on the efficiency to provide public services and ignored the effectiveness to improve public subjective well-being. To fill this gap, this study constructs a two-stage PSP conceptual model from the perspective of service production and consumption and develops a corresponding PSP performance evaluation indicator system to evaluate PSP efficiency, effectiveness, and comprehensive performance. The PSP performances of 35 major cities in China during 2011–2018 are calculated using the super efficiency network slack-based measure model. Moreover, the influencing factors of these performances are identified through the truncated regression model. Results indicate that the comprehensive performance of these cities is relatively low and shows a trend of decrease that is predominantly caused by provision efficiency. Owing to the absolute advantage in effectiveness and the catch-up effect in efficiency, cities in the western region perform the best in comprehensive performance, followed by the eastern region and then the central region. In addition, only seven cities achieve a balance between efficiency and effectiveness. Factors from economy, society, government, and public aspects have different impacts on PSP performances. On the basis of these findings, several policy suggestions are proposed. This study proposes a relatively comprehensive and accurate measurement framework of PSP performance that considers both efficiency and effectiveness and can help policymakers implement appropriate strategies promoting PSP in an efficient, effective, and sustainable manner.     

Forecasting stock prices with commodity prices: New evidence from Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares (FQGLS) with non-linearities

The complexities in modern stock markets make it imperative to unravel the possible predictors of their future values. This paper thus provides insights into the predictability of stock prices of the BRICS countries with large dependence on commodities either for foreign exchange earnings or industrial while accounting for the role of asymmetries. Essentially, empirical evidence abound for the high volatility in world commodity markets, thus making us to determine if positive and negative changes in commodity prices predict stock prices differently. In addition, unlike the traditional forecast models, our choice of forecast models additionally addresses certain statistical features, including conditional heteroskedasticity, serial dependence, persistence and endogeneity, inherent in the predictors, which have the potential of causing estimation bias. In all, we find evidence in favour of the ability of commodity prices to predict stock prices of Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Also, both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecast performances of the predicted models support asymmetries in a number of commodity prices in each of these three countries. Our results are robust to different data samples and forecast horizons.     

我国生物质发电的发展环境分析

论述了国内生物质发电项目的发展情况,根据多项生物质发电工程前期工作研究和评审经验,在国家有关主管机构要求完成相关课题研究和调研的基础上,对生物质发电项目对生态环境的影响进行了分析,对目前亟待重视的问题和政策进行了讨论研究,以期为我国生物质发电产业的健康快速发展提供借鉴。     

知识型服务企业隐性知识管理有效性评价

企业隐性知识的高效管理是企业获得持续竞争优势的关键.企业隐性知识管理是否有效,需要一个科学的评估体系对其进行评估.本文针对知识型服务企业依赖专业知识的知识属性,以及其隐性知识本质,构建了评价指标体系,并利用模糊综合评价方法对隐性知识管理的有效性进行了评价,为知识型服务企业了解隐性知识管理的效果,发现不足,提高本企业的知识管理能力,改进知识管理工作,并对于正确制定企业知识创新政策和战略目标等方面都具有重要的意义.