Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

领导干部在农业结构调整中应强化十种意识

新阶段的农业结构调整,必须适应变化了的新形势.为此,要进一步深化对农业结构调整的认识,牢固树立大农业意识、市场意识、规则意识、品牌意识、科技意识、信息意识、产业意识、工业意识、城镇意识和服务意识.     

Stability and Segregation in Group Formation

This paper presents a model of group formation based on the assumption that individuals prefer to associate with people similar to them. It is shown that, in general, if the number of groups that can be formed is bounded, then a stable partition of the society into groups may not exist. (A partition is defined as stable if none of the individuals would prefer be in a different group than the one he is in.) However, if individuals' characteristics are one-dimensional, then a stable partition always exists. We give sufficient conditions for stable partitions to be segregating (in the sense that, for example, low-characteristic individuals are in one group and high-characteristic ones are in another) and Pareto efficient. In addition, we propose a dynamic model of individual myopic behavior describing the evolution of group formation to an eventual stable, segregating, and Pareto efficient partition. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, H41.     

建立法人股东为主导的股权治理模式

股权结构是公司治理结构的基础,其设置状况是否合理对公司治理结构的效率有着决定性的影响.文章针对当前上市公司股权治理的弊端,设计出一种股权持有者多元化、股权集中程度分散化的股权结构,并提出我国上市公司应建立以法人股东为主导的治理模式.     

城市旅游标志物的确定及其结构化

针对旅游者对将要访问的城市比较陌生、选择旅游对象物时出现茫然的现象，为了更好地服务于旅游者，基于旅游行政管理的立场，提出了城市旅游标志物概念，认为其核心成员的确定需要基于遗产性、规模性、便捷性和公益性4个原则，并给出了核心成员、支持成员和外围成员的认知结构。     

加拿大商业银行风险管理的实践与借鉴

加拿大银行业具有健全的风险管理体系与机制、制度与流程、计量工具与技术以及不良资产处置方式。在开放经济条件下，借鉴加拿大银行业成熟的风险管理经验，对加快我国商业银行风险管理体系建设，推行全面风险管理有着重要的理论和现实意义。     

基于协整分析的东北区域产业结构优化与金融支持关系研究

基于1978—2003年的统计数据,采用协整关系检验法和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验法对东北地区金融发展与产业结构优化之间的关系进行了实证检验。分析结果表明东北区域产业结构优化与金融发展之间存在长期动态均衡关系及单向因果关系,即金融发展对东北区域产业结构优化具有支持作用,从而为政府经济决策提供了政策依据。     

International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper investigates the responses of market interest rates to US monetary policy announcements for the US and two emerging economies, Hong Kong and Singapore which are similar on many respects but have experienced opposite exchange rate regimes in the last twenty years. Our results, based on market expectations extracted from federal fund futures rates, document that FOMC announcements significantly affect the term structure of interest rate in the US and both Asian countries. Further, international interest rate differentials around FOMC meeting dates tend to be negative for short maturities with the impact gradually dissipating as bond maturity increases. Finally, for the case of Singapore, we find that domestic interest rates react to both external and domestic monetary policy announcements with a magnitude that is larger over the full bond maturity spectrum for domestic announcements. These results are robust to time-varying futures risk premia and alternative measures of interest rates expectations.     

论董事会的独立性对上市公司治理结构的完善——独立董事的产生及现状分析

现代公司制度的核心是要建立起完善的公司治理结构,董事会在公司治理结构中起着核心作用。但随着股份公司的股权进一步公众化,越来越多的研究报告揭示了董事会职能减弱的客观事实;同时,董事会日渐形成的内部控制与现代企业的发展形成矛盾。由此,西方在公司治理结构上引入了独立董事制,独立董事的功能已在现代企业法人治理结构中确立。