风险与社会保障：一个解释性框架

当今世界正经历着一个充满各类风险而个体普遍无力应对的风险社会时期。现代社会保障制度在应对工业化风险,保障社会成员基本生活,提升社会福利方面成效显著,但自福利国家危机以来,社会保障制度也正经历着深刻的变革。通过对人类不同发展阶段的社会风险和风险保障机制的考察,我们试图厘清和解读风险与社会保障的互动与变迁过程,建立起社会保障作为风险管理的社会机制的解释性框架,从而揭示其带给当代中国社会保障制度改革的启示意义。     

Gaps in the IFRS Conceptual Framework

Abstract

The stated purpose of the IFRS Conceptual Framework is to assist the IASB to develop Standards that are based on consistent concepts, and also to assist preparers to develop consistent accounting policies when Standards either do not apply or allow a choice of accounting policy. Yet, the Framework actually does surprisingly little to help the IASB (or preparers) determine which assets, liabilities, income and expenses should be recognised, and how they should be measured. The Framework’s focus on assets and liabilities implies that the accounting can, and should, be determined from the balance sheet. Yet, many current financial reporting requirements focus initially on the income statement, and so they are not so much derived from the Framework as instead in need of being reconciled back to it. At its heart, the problem here is that, while the Framework states that accrual accounting provides a better basis for assessing past and future performance than cash-based information, it does not explain why. To do so would require a conceptualisation of how entities’ business models are employed to create value, and of the strengths and limitations of accounting data in enhancing investors’ understanding of that value-creation. The lack of explanation of the purpose and informational objectives of accruals, how they relate to business models and how they cause the income statement and the balance sheet to interact are gaps in the Framework. Filling those gaps would provide a more robust, and natural, way for the IASB to develop recognition and measurement requirements in its Standards.     

加拿大政府绩效评价制度及其启示

本文从制度框架、组织构架和实施方式三个方面介绍了加拿大政府绩效评价的制度设计。并在此基础上总结出该国政府绩效评价制度高效运转的四大经验启示:以政府绩效管理的先进理念统摄整套绩效评价制度的设计,立意高远;三大管理制度环环相扣,将绩效评价功能发挥到极致;从内阁到具体项目管理者上下联动,使得绩效评价工作一气呵成;绩效评价类型全面,工具得力,步骤流程合理。     

Uncertainty on survival probabilities and solvency capital requirement: application to long-term care insurance

In this paper, we focus on uncertainty issues on disabled lives survival probabilities of LTC insurance policyholders and its consequences on solvency capital requirement. Among the risks affecting long-term care portfolios, special attention is addressed to the table risk, i.e. the risk of unanticipated aggregate mortality, arising from the uncertainty in modeling LTC claimants survival law. The table risk can be thought as the risk of systematic deviations referring not only to a parameter risk but, as well, to any other sources leading to a misinterpretation of the life table resulting for example from an evolution of medical techniques or a change in rules of acceptance. In fine, the idea is to introduce the risk of systematic deviations arising from the uncertainty on the disabled lives death probabilities directly. We analyze the consequences of an error of appreciation on the disabled lives survival probabilities in terms of level of reserves and describe a framework in an Own Risk and Solvency Assessment perspective to measure the gap between the risk profile from the standard formula to the risk analysis specific to the organism.     

小型物资保障体系的构建分析

分析了小型物资保障体系的形态架构及其物流驱动与管理结构，介绍了库存控制的三种基本方法和仓储管理应注意的问题。     

论以系统思考促进学习型组织建设

文章主要分析系统思考与学习型组织的相关要义及其相互关系,并阐述以系统思考促进学习型组织形成的过程。     

北京市非典型四合院的保护方略

四合院是北京的传统民居,是反映老北京文化、历史和传统风貌的基本单元,也是公共政策关注的焦点。分析了非典型四合院的概念和本质,指出对待非典型四合院应采取恢复其文物本来面貌的政策思路,并在此基础上提出落实政策思路的具体途径是赎买和置换使用权。     

因地制宜发展区域物流

分析了发展区域物流对地区经济发展和城市功能提升的意义，同时指出了目前我国区域物流发展中存在的问题和不足。在了解发展区域物流的意义和了解不足的基础上，提出了因地制宜，发展区域物流的对策。