试论国内区际贸易与对外贸易利益的关系

对外贸易的发展理应建立在国内区际贸易充分开展的基础上。国内区际贸易的开展对对外贸易利益的取得具有重要的意义。我国改革开放过程中的国内市场分割现象,使得国内区际贸易滞后于对外贸易快速发展,并制约了对外贸易利益最大化的实现。本文的政策结论是通过加快改革逐步实现国内经济市场化和一体化以提高外贸利益。     

流量垄断的理论框架与规制路径

数据要素的流动反映了市场供需信号的传递,流量竞争的本质是交易机会的争夺。数字平台的核心功能是流通,其以提高信息撮合效率为抓手进行注意力竞争,这决定了撮合对象的范围可以无限广阔,关注生产的相关市场界定则会因撮合市场跨多个生产领域而难以界定“基准产品”,因此流量代表的注意力相关市场难以测定。基于“联系一结构”视角,本文认为数字生态中存在中心、次中心和外围这三种角色,并从“平台-数据-算法”（PDA范式）三个维度进一步固化中心独占流量入口的格局,形成了中心对次中心,次中心对外围成本依次转移的“中心一外围”依附剥削体系。针对以控制交易机会分配为目的的流量垄断,本文提出三条规制路径：第一,在反垄断分析框架中突出相关时间市场;第二,拓展反垄断法中交易相对人的内涵,实现结构性平台对联系性平台跨生态开放为目标的互联互通;第三,导入开放平台原则,对结构性平台划定必需设施,构建数字平台的寡头竞争规则。     

Can the affordable care act provisions explain the recent wave of acquisitions in the health insurance industry?

This research shows that the ACA health insurance exchanges have generated more merger activity in the health insurance market. The impact is robust to control for an extensive set of factors suggested by both neoclassical and behavioural frameworks. The economic impact of this ACA provision is substantial with 3.8 more months of unusually high merger activity or 52 more merger bids per year.     

Decline of Controlled Foreign Company Rules and Rise of Intellectual Property Boxes: How the European Court of Justice Affects Tax Competition and Economic Distortions in Europe

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has become an influential player in the field of direct taxation in the European Union (EU) in the past 20 years. However, it is unclear whether or not the ECJ's decisions and the corresponding reactions by the member states actually contribute to tax neutrality in economic terms and, therefore, to the achievement of the internal market. In 2006, the ECJ limited the applicability of specific tax rules in the EU that are intended to prohibit the excessive use of low‐tax countries by multinationals. Our counterfactual analysis shows that the court's restriction of so‐called controlled foreign company rules and the related second‐round reactions by some member states – i.e. the introduction of low‐tax regimes for income from acquired intellectual properties (IP boxes for acquired IP) – cast doubt on the seemingly positive effects the ECJ has on reducing tax distortions. In addition, we demonstrate that the restricted applicability of IP boxes as endorsed by the OECD and the European Commission would strengthen tax neutrality in Europe.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

This paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk using data from China. We develop a new index to measure Chinese economic policy uncertainty and find that economic policy uncertainty has a remarkable positive effect on stock price crash risk. However, the effect reverses later. The results also indicate that the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk is more prominent for state‐owned enterprises. Moreover, this effect is more prominent for firms with higher information asymmetry and firms with greater disagreement among investors, indicating that economic policy uncertainty affects crash risk through two mechanisms: managers’ concealment of bad news and investors’ heterogeneous beliefs.     

盈余重述的市场反应及其影响因素研究——基于我国2004-2010年数据的经验分析

本文以2004-2010年盈余重述为样本,检验了我国盈余重述的市场反应及其影响因素。根据重述披露的时点选择特征,首次提出聚合重述和分离重述概念。研究发现,年报的利好消息或非利好消息对盈余重述负面影响的"抵减效应"或"加剧效应"都十分显著;剔除年报影响的分离重述的市场反应显著为-3%。研究还发现,相对于被动重述,主动重述被认为是"主动说真话"的表现,具有"坦白从宽"的效果;重述追溯调整的幅度、公司盈利能力、财务风险和债务水平,都会显著影响重述公告时的市场反应程度。     

Dynamic and asymmetric impacts of macroeconomic fundamentals on an integrated stock market

A large body of evidence indicates that macroeconomic and financial variables are dynamically interrelated. In an international setup, we analyze the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks on the stock market of a small open economy in an increasingly integrated world. We use a time-varying vector error correction model (VECM) that allows analysis of asymmetric impacts that depend on the state of the business cycle. A special focus is directed on monetary policy surprises, where we find that foreign shocks exert a strong influence on an integrated stock market, and that the stage of the business cycle heavily affects the signals of the shocks.     

Lottery mindset,mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This study investigates the MAX effect regarding lottery mindset in the Chinese stock market. The MAX effect significantly affects stock returns through quintile portfolio and cross-sectional regression analyses. The most-overpriced stock groups, as categorized by mispricing index, show more support for the MAX effect. However, the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) effect continues regardless of consideration for the MAX effect, indicating that the MAX effect is not a source of the IVOL effect. Our results suggest that the MAX effect, which is highly relevant for overpriced stocks, might have information for determining stock price, and appears to be independent from information of the IVOL effect in the Chinese stock market.     

发展中国家对外直接投资的新趋势

文章在系统总结发展中国家对外直接投资历程的基础上,结合发展中国家FDI出现的新特点,认为发展中国家的对外直接投资除已出现学习型FDI、竞争策略型FDI以外,极少数发展中国家的跨国公司已开始进入更为高级的市场势力型FDI阶段。     

后危机时期国际信用衍生品市场的调整对我国的启示

此次国际金融危机以来,经过各国监管当局及市场各方的努力变革,全球信用衍生品市场正朝着更成熟稳健的方向发展,简单化产品重回市场主导地位,清算机制的完善降低了市场风险,信用衍生品市场规范和市场自律管理得到加强。当前,我国信用衍生品市场已初步建立起有序的监管体系和制度框架,发展信用衍生品市场具备了较好的市场基础,下一阶段,应充分发挥有利条件,克服不利因素,通过创新促进发展,推动我国信用衍生品市场健康发展。