中国房地产泡沫风险的多维分析

由于中国缺乏可靠的房价指数,判断房价合理性的难度较大。鉴此,本文采用定性与定量分析相结合的方法,综合多个角度的分析,认为我国存在或正在形成住房价格泡沫风险,应当引起宏观经济决策者和市场的警惕。     

国内价格的汇率传递性——基于VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用VAR模型研究了我国国内价格的汇率传递性。VAR模型的脉冲反应函数显示,存在人民币汇率对国内价格的不完全传递性,但是,传递弹性极低,进口价格指数的汇率传递弹性要强于消费价格指数的汇率传递弹性,且进口价格指数向消费价格指数传导逐渐衰减。因此,通过汇率升值来抑制通胀效果并不理想,从紧的货币政策才是医治通胀的良药。     

国际大宗初级产品价格波动对中国的影响

文章通过分析以美元计价的铁矿石和原油等大宗初级产品价格波动的特征和原因,研究了初级产品价格波动对中国的影响机制和渠道,同时提出了应对初级产品价格波动的对策。     

中国农产品补贴的经济效应分析

面对我国小农生产和农产品市场发育不足的现实,借鉴国外经验,遵守WTO规则,调整我国农产品补贴政策,构建新型农产品补贴体系势在必行。本文主要借用经济学的分析工具,对补贴产生的经济效果进行分析和对比,提出应建立以直接补贴为主,价格补贴为辅的农产品补贴体系。     

产业结构调整的汇率驱动路径:价格穿越模型的解释

汇率作为宏观经济调节变量,在受到其它经济条件或经济因素影响的同时,其变动对国民经济也有着广泛而复杂的作用。通过对中国汇率制度历史演进的分析,可以发现人民币汇率的变动始终与中国产业结构的调整息息相关。文章以价格这一中间变量作为动力因素,建立价格穿越模型,分析汇率变动引起产业结构调整的传导路径与作用机理。     

零售商低价格保证策略研究述评

低价格保证策略是零售商的一种整体价格宣传策略,对树立零售商低价格水平形象以吸引消费者有重要影响。文章对低价格保证策略的相关文献进行了回顾,梳理了该策略对零售商价格竞争和市场结构的影响、对消费者影响的理论诠释以及其对消费者各方面影响的主效应及考虑调节变量的效应。最后在对现有文献评论的基础上,展望了未来的研究方向。     

The market under-and-overreaction story

Using non-overlapping historical monthly returns from 1963 to 2007, this study shows that a trading portfolio that goes long on past winning stocks and short on prior losing stocks earns an average monthly return of 0.88 percent over the ensuing 12 months. However, this momentum profit is entirely wiped out by subsequent return reversals, particularly in the second and third post-formation years. A result of the three-factor Fama and French regression extended by the market momentum effect shows that the Year 1 return and the long-term price reversal （returns in Year 2 through Year 5） move in diametrically opposing directions. This evidence indicates that the market under-and-overreaction anomalies are a manifestation of a market overreaction.     

On estimating Armington elasticities for Japan's meat imports

By fully accounting for the distinct tariff regimes levied on imported meat, we estimate substitution elasticities of Japan's two-stage import aggregation functions for beef, chicken and pork. Although the regression analysis crucially depends on the price that consumers face, the post-tariff price of imported meat depends not only on ad valorem duties but also on tariff rate quotas and gate price system regimes. The effective tariff rate is consequently evaluated by utilising monthly transaction data. To address potential endogeneity problems, we apply exchange rates that we believe to be independent of the demand shocks for imported meat. The panel nature of the data allows us to retrieve the first-stage aggregates via time dummy variables, free of demand shocks, to be used as part of the explanatory variable and as an instrument in the second-stage regression.     

‘Because it matters’

Basic economic logic, which often simplifies assessments and explanations of agricultural policy issues, is vitally important in communicating with policy-makers. Resources are limited, and there is a premium on getting decisions at least approximately right first time. Examples from southern Africa illustrate the importance of parity pricing, and its links to household food security (Lesotho), price risk, the emergence of an agricultural futures market, and its central role in allocating scarce agricultural resources (South Africa). Insights derived from an appreciation of parity pricing are relevant in other national contexts and also help explain how international grain markets operate. The parity pricing concept provides a framework for sense-checking complicated debates relating to two issues that have been prominent in recent years; first, whether and to what extent speculation in futures markets has been a driver of agricultural price spikes, and second, how far indirect land use change (ILUC), triggered by the use of agricultural feedstocks to produce renewable energy, is a material issue. These issues are likely to be of heightened importance in the face of climate change. Each emphasises that agricultural economics matters, and that it matters that we get the economics right.     

划拨土地使用权益基准地价评估方法探析

本文先简要介绍了几种常用的评估方法,并对划拨土地使用权权益基准地价评估进行研究,从而提出了基于土地增值收益分配理论的评估方法思路.