国内外关于农机需求的理论与实证研究综述

本文从理论和实证研究两个角度回顾了国内外关于农机需求研究的重点文献，归纳了宏观和微观农机需求研究的共同理论基础，探讨了国内外对农机需求研究的进展，最后指出：农机需求的微观研究是目前国内农机需求研究的空白领域和值得进一步研究的、具有理论创新意义的发展方向。     

IntraLATA long-distance demand: carrier choice, usage demand and price elasticities

Competition in the long-distance market in the US continues to intensify; the 1996 Telecommunications Act has led to increased competition in long-distance telephony especially as the Regional Bell Operating Companies have begun to gain entry to long-haul, long-distance markets. In order to better understand the implications of having increased service offerings, models of how customers choose between carriers (and the impact of this choice on subsequent usage) will be useful. We develop the first publicly available models that simultaneously estimate choice and usage for intraLATA long-distance in the US. Utilizing a generalized Tobit model, the price responsiveness of usage and carrier choice are estimated. The results are generally consistent with expectations both in terms of theory and of practical experience in the industry.     

把握基层管理者执行力提升的关节点

基层管理者的执行力大小直接关系到组织的成败得失,并反映了组织人力资源管理的绩效情况.基层管理者要提高执行力,必须明确目标并制定行动计划,充分认识本组织的资源优势并加以优化配置,协调好本组织与相关组织、上级组织和下级组织之间的关系,让员工拥有梦想,努力将"中游水平"整体提升.     

跨海通道与日本经济

日本由于岛国的独特地理特征，为了促进其经济和社会的发展，在二战之后进行了大规模的跨海桥梁以及海底隧道建设，从而实现了四大主岛陆路交通的联结。日本一系列跨海通道的建设，对促进其经济腾飞、实现地区均衡发展，起到了积极的推动作用。这对我国当前的五大跨海交通工程，具有重要的启示和借鉴。     

峰荷需求、资本配置效率与中国网络型基础产业投融资机制改革——对阿弗奇-约翰逊模型的一个扩展

阿弗奇—约翰逊模型(A—J模型)表明规制对象具有过度使用资本倾向,相应的实证检验中同时存在肯定和否定的结果,但基本的A—J模型、已有扩展和实证检验都忽略了受规制行业的峰荷需求特征。本文从基本的A—J模型出发,假定生产要素单位使用成本与规制机构所认可的单位核算成本不同,考察了峰荷需求特征下受规制网络型基础产业的投资行为,提供了资本配置效率的衡量标准。本文的基本结论在于,峰荷需求条件下受规制企业不一定投资过多,这也解释了为何A—J效应的实证检验存在相互矛盾的结果。     

诚信建设与企业发展

本文认为,诚信建设对企业发展至关重要,无论是要维持正常的经营活动,还是要通过创立品牌做强做大,乃至于要走出国门,参加全球竞争,都离不开诚信。企业缺乏诚信,必然会失去社会的信任,进而导致自身利益的丧失;坚守诚信,必然能赢得社会的信任,并从中获得利益。文章强调,企业不能将诚信建设仅仅作为一种谋取自身利益的手段,单纯从赢得用户的信赖出发,从企业自身的利益出发,而应该培植真正的诚信品质,最根本的是要着眼于提高人的精神追求与道德素质。诚信建设一靠教育,二靠制度。     

股份制取代合作制是历史的必然——对中国农村金融制度选择的思考

目前，合作金融在中国遇到了种种困惑，这不是合作金融本身的错。一方面中国从来就没有建立过真正的合作金融；另一方面合作金融与中国当前的经济环境也不相适应。而那种异化了的合作金融既没有存在的必要，也没有存在的可能。股份制取代合作制是一种历史的必然。     

中国寿险需求实证分析

本文对国内外的寿险需求分析研究进行了简单综述，在此基础上抽取全目30省市1998—2003年的数据．采取面板数据模型就收入、通货膨胀、社会保障、银行利率、死亡率等寿险需求影响因素与保费收入相关性作了Granger因果性检验分析。     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.