Assessing the historical role of credit: Business cycles,financial crises and the legacy of Charles S. Peirce

This paper provides a historical overview of financial crises and their origins. The objective is to discuss a few of the modern statistical methods that can be used to evaluate predictors of these rare events. The problem involves the prediction of binary events, and therefore fits modern statistical learning, signal processing theory, and classification methods. The discussion also emphasizes the need for statistics and computational techniques to be supplemented with economics. The success of a forecast in this environment hinges on the economic consequences of the actions taken as a result of the forecast, rather than on typical statistical metrics of prediction accuracy.     

因子分析中公因子提取方法的比较与选择

近代和现代统计分析方法中，因子分析是最重要的方法之一。因子分析中有7种提取公因子的方法，其中主成分法、极大似然法和主轴因子法是常用的方法。在着重解析这三种方法基本数学过程的基础上，对其适用条件和应用注意事项进行了比较，最后结合实例比较了不同公因子提取方法的结果，并对提取公因子过程中出现的问题给出了可能的解决办法。     

铁路货运站适应能力分析与对策

铁路货运站是铁路货物运输的起点和终点,大力提升铁路货运站适应能力是顺利实施铁路货运改革的重要基础。文章统筹考虑全国主要货运站存在的主要问题,从运转设备能力和货运设施能力两个层面分析铁路货运站的适应性问题即货运站适应能力,提出具体的提升铁路货运站适应能力的对策及建议。     

我国银行理财业务发展趋势研究

对国内商业银行理财业务的发展状况进行了简要概述， 进而对理财业务开展过程中的一些问题进行了分析， 强调指出市场化应该成为银行理财业务转型升级和创新发展的方向， 并提出了实现市场化发展方向的若干具体措施。     

江苏企业“走出去”的模式及财务风险防控研究

随着中国“一带一路”倡议的逐步实施,越来越多的企业开始加入“走出去”的队伍。但是由于不同企业所处行业、资金实力、规模大小、对外投资目的等因素不尽相同,如果选择不恰当的模式往往会导致陷入经营困境。因此本文为江苏“走出去”企业提出相应的财务风险防控措施,旨在促进企业在国际化进程中健康、可持续发展。     

A division of the capitalist class and the market for money capital

In a one‐commodity economy populated by capitalists equipped with equal endowment but with heterogeneous linear production technology, a division of the capitalist class emerges endogenously. The capitalists with relatively weak technology, yielding the profit rate lower than the interest rate, become a money capitalist (lender), whereas the capitalists with relatively strong technology, yielding the profit rate greater than the interest rate, become an industrial capitalist (borrower). The equilibrium interest rate is derived by the associated demand and supply relation. From this setup of the model follow two essential relationships Marx establishes between the average profit rate and the interest rate: (a) that the profit (rate) sets a maximum limit of interest (rate), and (b) that the two rates are correlated in the long‐run. Lastly, the profit rate of financial sector is less than that of industrial sector due to the basic setup of the model where the industrial sector uses leverage to amplify the underlying capital profit rate, whereas the financial sector lacks intermediation technology, which would have enabled it to borrow profitably.     

The construction of a composite index for general satisfaction in Turkey and the investigation of its determinants

The goal of public enterprises is to increase the wealth and happiness of individuals. This target lets them make the investment to fulfill these expectations. However, not all citizens in a country might have the same opportunities. This case requires comparing citizens who live in cities with regard to satisfaction levels. This study consists of two stages. In the first stage, a composite index called the General Satisfaction Index (GSI), which aims to explain the satisfaction levels of citizens living in cities, is obtained by using the Benefit of the Doubt method. Contrary to the previous studies, the satisfaction indicators based on the emotions and senses of citizens are used to construct a composite index. Satisfaction indicators’ contribution to GSI is ensured using the minimum weights. In the second stage of this study, socioeconomic determinants of GSI are investigated in both countrywide and regions by using regularized regression methods. In the result of the regression analyze, it is confirmed that there are different socioeconomic determinants of satisfaction levels for countrywide and each region. For this reason, it is proposed that policymakers should follow different politicizes in each region to increase the satisfaction levels of citizens in the country.     

Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's “The Role of Monetary Policy”

This paper analyzes Milton Friedman's (1968a) article “The Role of Monetary Policy,” via a discussion of seven fallacies concerning the article. These fallacies are as follows: (i) “The Role of Monetary Policy” was Friedman's first public statement of the natural rate hypothesis. (ii) The Friedman–Phelps Phillips curve was already present in Samuelson and Solow's (1960) analysis. (iii) Friedman's specification of the Phillips curve was based on perfect competition and no nominal rigidities. (iv) Friedman's (1968a) account of monetary policy in the Great Depression contradicted the Monetary History’s version. (v) Friedman (1968a) stated that a monetary expansion will keep the unemployment rate and the real interest rate below their natural rates for two decades. (vi) The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates invalidates the natural rate hypothesis. (vii) Friedman's (1968a) treatment of an interest-rate peg was refuted by the rational expectations revolution. The discussion lays out the reasons why each of these seven items is a fallacy and infers key aspects of the framework underlying Friedman's (1968a) analysis.     

Estimating the duration of different seasons and their impact on hotel room prices

The purpose of the study is to accurately measure the span of different seasons and its effect on the fluctuation of the occupancy rate and the average room rates in the hospitality sector. While prior studies have concentrated on measuring seasonality using calendar months, this study takes a different approach by measuring seasons in terms of the date count so that the exact starting and ending date of a season can be identified. This step involves adopting a non-parametric methodology that split the time scale into several small parts to obtain a better fit of the relationship and that can detect the starting and end of the season when given specific dates.     

大数据背景下企业财务管理面临的挑战与变革

随着社会经济的快速发展,市场经济体制在不断地完善,科学技术水平也在不断地上升,这时我国进入了大数据时代。传统的财务管理模式已经无法再适应时代的发展变化,所以企业应该及时转变自身的财务管理模式,更新管理理念。论文针对大数据背景下企业财务管理面临的挑战和变革进行分析,介绍财务部门的主要作用和发展现状,并提出提高财务管理水平的具体方法和策略,希望能够为企业的发展起到一些参考作用。