国内外关于农机需求的理论与实证研究综述

本文从理论和实证研究两个角度回顾了国内外关于农机需求研究的重点文献，归纳了宏观和微观农机需求研究的共同理论基础，探讨了国内外对农机需求研究的进展，最后指出：农机需求的微观研究是目前国内农机需求研究的空白领域和值得进一步研究的、具有理论创新意义的发展方向。     

IntraLATA long-distance demand: carrier choice, usage demand and price elasticities

Competition in the long-distance market in the US continues to intensify; the 1996 Telecommunications Act has led to increased competition in long-distance telephony especially as the Regional Bell Operating Companies have begun to gain entry to long-haul, long-distance markets. In order to better understand the implications of having increased service offerings, models of how customers choose between carriers (and the impact of this choice on subsequent usage) will be useful. We develop the first publicly available models that simultaneously estimate choice and usage for intraLATA long-distance in the US. Utilizing a generalized Tobit model, the price responsiveness of usage and carrier choice are estimated. The results are generally consistent with expectations both in terms of theory and of practical experience in the industry.     

峰荷需求、资本配置效率与中国网络型基础产业投融资机制改革——对阿弗奇-约翰逊模型的一个扩展

阿弗奇—约翰逊模型(A—J模型)表明规制对象具有过度使用资本倾向,相应的实证检验中同时存在肯定和否定的结果,但基本的A—J模型、已有扩展和实证检验都忽略了受规制行业的峰荷需求特征。本文从基本的A—J模型出发,假定生产要素单位使用成本与规制机构所认可的单位核算成本不同,考察了峰荷需求特征下受规制网络型基础产业的投资行为,提供了资本配置效率的衡量标准。本文的基本结论在于,峰荷需求条件下受规制企业不一定投资过多,这也解释了为何A—J效应的实证检验存在相互矛盾的结果。     

中国寿险需求实证分析

本文对国内外的寿险需求分析研究进行了简单综述，在此基础上抽取全目30省市1998—2003年的数据．采取面板数据模型就收入、通货膨胀、社会保障、银行利率、死亡率等寿险需求影响因素与保费收入相关性作了Granger因果性检验分析。     

城市旅游标志物的确定及其结构化

针对旅游者对将要访问的城市比较陌生、选择旅游对象物时出现茫然的现象，为了更好地服务于旅游者，基于旅游行政管理的立场，提出了城市旅游标志物概念，认为其核心成员的确定需要基于遗产性、规模性、便捷性和公益性4个原则，并给出了核心成员、支持成员和外围成员的认知结构。     

论中国旅游可持续发展战略选择与生态旅游的实施

文章阐述了我国实施旅游可持续发展战略的必然性,指出生态旅游是实现我国旅游可持续发展战略目标的必然形式。在分析我国生态旅游发展现状的基础上,提出了若干大力发展生态旅游的应对之策。     

The Nested PIGLOG Model: An Application to U.S. Food Demand

A new demand system is introduced, the Nested PIGLOG model, nesting thirteen other demand systems including five that are also new. This new model and its nested special cases are applied to models of U.S. food demand that include food-at-home (FAH), food-away-from-home (FAFH), and alcoholic beverages. Although nested tests and out-of-sample forecasting performance favor generalizing models to a certain degree, statistically insignificant improvements to in-sample-fit and even poorer out-of-sample forecast accuracy undermine further generalizations. Based on a subset of preferred models, FAFH is found to be price and income elastic compared to FAH which is price and income inelastic.     

Impacts of Declining U.S. Retail Beef Demand on Farm-Level Beef Prices and Production

A systems model was estimated to determine the effects of declining U.S. retail beef demand on farm-level beef prices and production. Retail beef demand declined by nearly 66% from 1976 to 1999. Results indicate autonomous shifts in retail demand significantly impacted farm-level demands and production. Based on equilibrium multipliers, the 1976–99 reduction in beef demand decreased real slaughter cattle prices and production by 32.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Real feeder cattle prices and production decreased by 8.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Combining the decreases in farm prices and production, slaughter and feeder cattle producers experienced a real revenue reduction of $13.3 billion (61%) due to the long-term decline in demand.     

Diffusion of Products with Limited Supply and Known Expiration Date

In this paper, we provide a model for diffusion of products, which are available in limited quantity until a known expiration date, after which the unsold products have no value. We consider the case of a performing arts company. The model development is built on the foundation of classical product diffusion model by Bass (1969) and the psychological effect known as the scarcity principle (Cialdini, 1985). Our empirical analysis results show that the proposed model can provide significant improvement in prediction of the products characterized by the scarcity effect.     

谈旅游服务理念在旅游企业中的确立

当今旅游企业面临国内、国外双重竞争压力,从现实来看确立旅游服务理念已经成为旅游企业的一致选择,其实确立旅游服务理念是很多客观因素促成的必然结果,这些因素既有宏观的又有微观的,首先确立旅游服务理念的客观必然性和它增强企业核心竞争力的重要作用,然后确定服务理念的内容,使旅游企业健康地发展。