The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry

This paper analyses the role of global land management alternatives in determining potential greenhouse gas mitigation by land-based activities in agriculture and forestry. Land-based activities are responsible for over a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet the economics of land-use decisions have not been explicitly modeled in global mitigation studies. In this paper, we develop a new, general equilibrium framework which effectively captures the opportunity costs of land-use decisions in agriculture and forestry, thereby allowing us to analyse competition for heterogeneous land types across and within sectors, as well as input substitution between land and other factors of production. When land-using sectors are confronted with a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, we find significant changes in the global pattern of comparative advantage across sectors, regions, and land types. Globally, we find that forest carbon sequestration is the dominant strategy for GHG emissions mitigation, while agricultural-related mitigation comes predominantly from reduced methane emissions in the ruminant livestock sector, followed by fertilizer and methane emissions from paddy rice. Regionally, agricultural mitigation is a larger share of total land-use emissions abatement in the USA and China, compared to the rest of the world, and, within agriculture, disproportionately from reductions in fertilizer-related emissions. The results also show how analyses that only consider regional mitigation, may bias mitigation potential by ignoring global market interactions. For example, USA-specific analyses likely over-estimate the potential for abatement in agriculture. Finally, we note that this general equilibrium framework provides the research community with a practical methodology for explicit modeling of global land competition and land-based mitigation in comprehensive assessments of greenhouse gas mitigation options.     

Use of derivatives in public sector organizations

The present paper develops and tests a model explaining public sector derivative use in terms of budget discrepancy minimization. The model is different from private sector models. Private sector models do not readily translate into the public sector, which typically faces different objectives. Hypotheses are developed and tested using logistic regression over a sample of Australian Commonwealth public sector organizations. It is found that public sector organization derivative use is positively correlated with liabilities and size consistent with the hypotheses concerning budget discrepancy management.     

基于物元分析的土地利用系统健康诊断

研究目的:弥补已有土地利用系统健康诊断中指标体系及评价方法的不足,构建基于PSR模型的评价指标体系并进行实证研究。研究方法:物元分析法和实证研究法。研究结果:(1)2000—2010年四川省土地利用系统健康水平呈逐步改善态势,但2010年"亚健康"等级关联度很弱;(2)人均耕地面积、土地垦殖率、工业固体废物综合利用率、固定资产投资增长率和水土流失程度是土地利用系统健康水平提升的关键制约因素。研究结论:应进一步转变经济发展方式,降低经济增长对土地资源的过度消耗,加大环境治理力度,提高工业固体废物综合利用率,有效控制水土流失程度,促进土地利用系统健康水平不断提升;基于PSR模型的评价指标体系能更准确地反映土地利用系统健康的各要素之间的关系,物元分析可以揭示单个评价指标的分异信息、挖掘土地利用系统健康存在的具体问题,适合用于土地利用系统健康的评价。     

城市建设用地规模预测方法与应用研究

合理确定城市用地规模,是衡量城市理性发展的重要依据。将灰色关联度引入城市建设用地的预测中,通过对双因素理论模型进行改进,建立建设用地规模的预测模型,通过对哈尔滨市2010年以及2020年城市建设用地规模进行预测,得知哈尔滨市的建设用地规模将会急剧扩张,这样势必会占用宝贵的耕地。抑制用地规模急剧扩张的势头,应采取挖掘城市存量土地的潜力,注重城市内涵发展,正确处理保护耕地与城市发展的关系,在加强土地用途管制的同时增加规划控制的灵活性与弹性。     

试论土地利用工程的学科属性、体系和发展方向

研究目的:推进土地利用工程学科的发展,完善土地科学的学科体系。研究方法:理论分析法、文献查询法、专家征询法。研究结论:(1)土地利用工程对人类生存与发展有着重要的长远影响和现实意义。(2)土地利用工程是改善土地质量、提升土地效能和优化土地生态环境的工程技术措施总和。(3)土地利用工程可续分为土地开发工程、土地整理工程、土地复垦工程、土地防护工程、土地整治工程。(4)土地利用工程的发展方向包括理论体系、技术标准、可持续性工程模式、多元化融资模式、后评价、公益性项目效益评价、景观和生态环境修复技术等16个方面。     

基于GIS城镇土地节约集约利用潜力评价研究——以湖北省鄂州市段店镇经济开发区为例

城镇土地合理利用需要正确处理与自然条件限制、生态环境质量、国民经济发展等的协调关系,充分发挥土地要素在城市功能中的作用,为在构建和谐社会的同时,获得最佳的社会、经济、生态效益提供科学依据.在土地绝对量已定的前提下,如何对有限的土地资源实现合理和有效利用,保证土地相对增量,一直是解决人地关系的核心问题.充分发掘城镇内部闲置土地、未利用土地以及土地立体空间利用的潜力,提高土地利用强度和经济效益,实现城镇土地集约利用.同时通过对不同确定权重方法的比较研究,分析方法的特点和适用方向,提供土地利用决策服务.