“五化”视角下鹤壁市土地利用动态变化研究

中共中央提出的"五化"发展战略有助于促进土地资源的可持续利用。鹤壁市作为河南省的粮食生产核心区同时又处于河南省中原经济区的发展之列,肩负着保证粮食安全和实现中部崛起的双重重担,基于"五化"视角对鹤壁市过去20年土地利用动态变化进行研究具有现实意义。文章使用包括RS和GIS在内的"信息化"手段,运用ENVI、Arc GIS及Fragstats软件方法,对鹤壁市建设用地基于"工业化与城镇化"、对耕地基于"农业现代化"、对林地基于"绿色化"进行具体分析。主要结论有:工业化与城镇化下,鹤壁市建设用地实现了扩张与集聚,城市建设向"一核双星"模式发展;农业现代化下,耕地资源丰富且变化日益趋向集中连片,但近年有减少趋势;绿色化下,鹤壁市由前10年的林地减少,变为净增加8.558km2,但仍存在工程设施侵占的问题。为实现土地资源的可持续发展,建议应在未来利用中以节约集约为核心,以生态环境保护为主导对土地资源进行挖潜。     

Integrated Management of Land Use Systems under Systemic Risks and Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model

Interdependencies among land use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relationships. Disruption of this network may catalyse systemic risks affecting food, energy, water and environmental security (FEWES) worldwide. We describe the conceptual development, expansion and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analysed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of scenario‐dependent outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust outcomes that leave the systems better‐off, independently of which scenario applies. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimisation model that is critical for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex‐ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex‐post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. As an example, the model is applied to the question of optimal storage facilities, as buffers for production shortfalls, to meet regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relationship with Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value‐at‐Risk (CVaR) risk measures. A Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to illustrate the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model approach.     

自主参与式农地休养政策：模式和启示

研究目的：梳理自主参与式农地休养政策进展,为中国开展“耕地休养”提供政策启示。研究方法：文献综述法。研究结果：农户自主选择是否参与农地休养项目的实施机制能够一定程度上弥补传统强制实施模式下农户抵触、成本过高等不足;自主参与式农地休养政策的具体实施模式是多元的,各具不同特点;这种实施方式下可能会出现一些新的问题,但可以采取措施加以应对。研究结论：自主参与式农地休养政策的实施方式充分体现了对农户意愿和产权的尊重,具有重要借鉴意义。     

闽侯棋磐寨森林人家游客忠诚影响因素研究

顾客忠诚对于消费者的重复购买具有决定性的作用。棋磐寨森林人家是福建省"十佳森林人家"之一,调查问卷有效样本的探索性因子分析识别出游客忠诚独立由1个维度组成。多元线性回归分析结果揭示:游客感知吸引力的3个维度均对忠诚度不具有显著直接影响,但其中的乡村特色和景观与设施2个维度可以通过满意度对忠诚度产生间接显著影响;游憩体验的2个维度和满意度的2个维度均对忠诚度具有直接显著影响。研究结果显示,游客对景区的满意度和景观与设施的评价均处于较低水平。根据研究结果提出推动多元发展,提供深度体验;完善旅游设施,提高服务质量;加强文化创意,巩固游客忠诚等建议。     

Primary and secondary pest management in agriculture: balancing pesticides and natural enemies in potato production

Natural enemies (NEs) provide an important ecosystem service by preying on variety of pests in agricultural crop production systems. Current management practices of both primary and secondary pests in agricultural production principally rely on the use of pesticides with associated negative social and environmental consequences/externalities. Excessive use of pesticides against primary pets can remove NEs from the agro‐ecosystem and amplify susceptibility of the system to outbreaks of secondary pests. The combined effect of NEs on primary and secondary pests has received limited attention. This study uses an intraseasonal bioeconomic model to explicitly take into account biological interactions among primary pests, secondary pests, and NEs assuming decision makers’ profit maximizing behavior. The model explicitly captures the opportunity cost of injury to NE in terms of both primary and secondary pest suppression by NE. The results show that in the context of the green peach aphid (primary pest) and two‐spotted spider mite (secondary pest) in potato production, inclusion of NE into pest mitigation strategy can increase returns by 2%.     

The evolution of global farming land: facts and interpretations

Although land plays a crucially important role in economic development and structural transformation, the causes and consequences of the evolution of farming land have received scant attention in recent decades. In this article, I document global and regional changes in aggregate agricultural land use, per capita land use, and average farm sizes. The spatial distribution of global farming land has changed dramatically, with developed countries substantially reducing their share of global agricultural land, and land‐abundant developing countries substantially increasing their share. In per capita terms, we see a rather different pattern, with average farm sizes increasing in rich and more commercialized agricultural systems, and generally declining or staying constant in poorer and less commercialized systems. These outcomes are the result of complex processes that are not always well understood. I conclude the article by suggesting new, or neglected, areas of research that would facilitate a better understanding of these critically important developments.     

移民安置区农户土地利用与生计变化研究

研究目的:分析移民易地安置区不同类型农户生计多样性及其土地利用变化,为区域土地优化与自然资源可持续利用提供参考。研究方法:问卷调查、半结构访谈及数理统计等方法。研究结果:移民政策实施以来,研究区纯农户比例急剧下降,不同类型农户的兼业行为趋势明显,农业生计多样化指数增加,但非农生计方式单一;移民兼业行为和非农生计行为明显,但原驻民的农业生计多样性指数更高;不同类型农户土地利用变化表现出,农户兼业程度越高,耕地面积减少越快,林地扩张程度越高,农用地面积变化越明显等特点;移民政策实施以来,研究区土地利用集约度明显提升,且表现出非农程度越高,耕地利用集约度水平越高的趋势,但因林地大面积扩张导致农用地集约度总体水平较低且呈现下降趋势。研究结论:移民安置区不同类型农户面临的生计压力不同,应优化配置土地资源,帮助农户发展多样化的非农生计活动,提高农户生计多样化和土地集约化水平。     

空间视角下生产性服务业集聚对城市土地集约利用的影响研究

研究目的:从空间视角研究生产性服务业集聚对中国城市土地集约利用的决定作用,为新型城镇化建设进程中合理安排城市产业布局、促进土地利用方式转变、实现城市经济和土地集约利用协同发展提供新思路。研究方法:空间计量分析法。研究结果:中国城市间生产性服务业集聚和土地集约利用在地理分布上具有显著空间关联性;全国层面,生产性服务业通过专业化集聚、多样化集聚产生的技术外溢效应和集聚规模产生的规模经济效应显著提高了城市土地集约利用水平;分板块层面,生产性服务业多样化集聚和集聚规模对城市土地集约利用的正向效应呈现东、中、东北、西部板块依次递减现象,而专业化集聚对城市土地集约利用的技术外溢效应在西部地区更明显。研究结论:提升生产性服务业集聚水平、促进产业结构优化和人口集聚有利于中国城市集约利用土地资源。     

长江中下游地区耕地后备资源空间分布及影响因素研究

研究目的:揭示长江中下游地区耕地后备资源的分布变化特征及其影响因素,以指导耕地后备资源开发。研究方法:重心模型、标准差椭圆等空间统计方法。研究结果:(1)相比2003年,2014年长江中下游地区耕地后备资源重心呈现向西南移动的趋势,耕地后备资源空间分布范围扩大,空间分布方向性减弱,主趋势方向呈顺时针旋转;(2)在长江中下游地区耕地后备资源分布变化的影响因素中,自然条件奠定了基本格局,人口分布的影响力逐步显现,经济发展是近年来变化的主导因素。研究结论:重心模型、标准差椭圆等空间统计方法能够从多视角揭示并可视化长江中下游地区耕地后备资源的空间分布特征并分析部分影响因素,可为耕地后备资源的开发政策提供理论指导。     

基于 GlobeLand 30 的耕地资源损失过程研究 —— 以环渤海地区为例

研究目的:认识和理解耕地资源损失过程。研究方法:基于中国成功研制出的世界上首套30 m分辨率2000—2010年GlobeLand 30数据,利用GIS空间分析方法,综合分析环渤海地区耕地资源损失流向、质量和空间特征。研究结果:2000—2010年,环渤海地区土地利用/覆盖变化剧烈,耕地资源明显减少,主要损失流向为人造覆盖、草地、水体和森林;耕地资源损失区域主要位于降水量较少、海拔较高等耕作条件较差的地区;耕地资源重心总体向东南方向移动,破碎化程度日趋严重。研究结论:基于GlobeLand30数据的耕地资源损失过程研究能有效揭示耕地资源损失流向、质量和空间特征,为区域耕地资源利用与保护提供了积极借鉴和参考。