Estimating daily volatility in financial markets utilizing intraday data

This study proposes a new approach to the estimation of daily realised volatility in financial markets from intraday data. Initially, an examination of intraday returns on S&P 500 Index Futures reveals that returns can be characterised by heteroscedasticity and time-varying autocorrelation. After reviewing a number of daily realised volatility estimators cited in the literature, it is concluded that these estimators are based upon a number of restrictive assumptions in regard to the data generating process for intraday returns. We use a weak set of assumptions about the data generating process for intraday returns, including transaction returns, given in den Haan and Levin [den Haan, W.J., Levin, A., 1996. Inferences from parametric and non-parametric covariance matrix estimation procedures, Working paper, NBER, 195.], which allows for heteroscedasticity and time-varying autocorrelation in intraday returns. These assumptions allow the VARHAC estimator to be employed in the estimation of daily realised volatility. An empirical analysis of the VARHAC daily volatility estimator employing intraday transaction returns concludes that this estimator performs well in comparison to other estimators cited in the literature.     

Contagion Effects from the 1994 Mexican Peso Crisis: Evidence from Chilean Stocks

The contagion, or informational spillover, effects of the 1994 peso crisis from the Mexican market to the Chilean market, and to the Chilean American Depository Receipts (ADRs) trading in the U.S., are examined. Significant excess returns are observed for Chilean stocks for the event dates of the Mexican Peso crisis, providing evidence of contagion effects. Significant excess returns on these Chilean ADRs are also observed for each of the five event dates associated with the Peso crisis, suggesting that the contagion effects spilled over to the ADRs. A multiple regression model shows that the spillover contagion effects were very efficiently transmitted from the Mexican market to the Chilean market to the Chilean ADRs. Multifactor regressions show that the most significant influence on the pricing of Chilean ADRs is the raw Chilean Index, rather than the Chilean Index expressed in U.S. dollars.     

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimummean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model.This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering,forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatilitysettings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate howthe three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters performunder controlled conditions and then we use daily currency andequity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in arisk management application. Although the GARCH models produceless precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations,it is not clear that the performance differences are large enoughto be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, wefind that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in testsof conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.     

Observable Consequences of Trading Structure Differences: On the Use of Variance Ratios in Microstructure Studies

This paper examines the variance ratio tests in studies of transitory volatility and concludes that the variance ratio is an appropriate test of trading structure differences only under certain assumptions regarding the evolution of underlying stock prices and the autocorrelation structure of returns. This result raises caution as to the interpretation of results bases upon the 24-hour variance ratio methodologies in studies of transitory volatility and trading structure effects. A numerical example indicates that errors in inferences can be severe.     

Dynamic analysis of stock return volatility in an integrated international capital market

This paper examines the dynamic behavior of the stock return volatility for Canada, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The evidence indicates that international stock return volatility is mainly influenced by the U.S. stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility, supporting the international capital market integration hypothesis. There seems to be some correlation between stock return volatility and macroeconomic volatility, but the effect is relatively weaker. In addition to the economic fundamentals, the noise component is found to be time varying, confirming the AR(MA)CH specifications in the stock return models.     

R&D Progress, stock price volatility, and post-announcement drift: An empirical investigation into biotech firms

I investigate the effects of R&D progress on the dynamics of stock price volatility and the post announcement drift to provide insights into whether or not and how capital markets react to corporate R&D progress in the context of the biotech industry. I find both stock price volatility and the post announcement drift decrease in R&D progress. More importantly, the decrease is proportional to the increase in the drug development success rate driven by R&D progress. Findings suggest that R&D progress conveys useful risk-relevant information, and plays an important role in explaining stock price volatility change and market anomalies.     

Modelling return and conditional volatility exposures in global stock markets

This article empirically investigates the exposure of country-level conditional stock return volatilities to conditional global stock return volatility. It provides evidence that conditional stock market return volatilities have a contemporaneous association with global return volatilities. While all the countries included in the study exhibited a significant and positive relationship to global volatility, emerging market volatility exposures were considerably higher than developed market exposures. JEL Classification G12     

Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?

We examine the effect of forward sale (pre-sale) activities on the volatility of spot prices in the real estate market. The abundance of pre-sales data and major changes in regulatory control on the pre-sale market during the 90's in Hong Kong allow us to undertake empirical tests using Hong Kong's real estate data. Our results show that the volatility of spot prices increased significantly after forward sales were severely dampened by regulatory control measures introduced in 1994, but decreased again when the measures were partly relaxed in 1998. The results contribute to the long lasting debate on whether the introduction of a futures market reduces the volatility of spot prices. Previous studies were mainly conducted in markets with low transaction costs, notably financial markets. By utilizing the unique regulatory changes in the pre-sale market of Hong Kong, we are able to conduct an experiment on the conditional volatility of spot prices in a high information-cost environment, thereby shedding light on the important role of forward housing contracts in providing price expectation information for spot trading.     

我国煤炭输送方式经济性方面的研究工作

煤炭运输方式的经济性问题是制定能源产业政策的基本理论问题之一,为此回顾了我国五十年代以来的部分有关研究工作,对不同时期的部分研究实例从研究方法、技术方案和研究结论三个方面进行了对比分析,揭示了不同研究工作在基本原理方面的一致性和技术方案方面的差异性,以及由此造成的研究结论的异同。     

加强无功电压管理 降低电网线路损耗

从石河子电网(文中简称石网)无功电压的运行现状及线损率的变化规律出发,分析了无功电压对电网经济运行的影响,并从技术、经济、管理三方面提出如何加强无功电压管理、降低电网线路损耗的建议.