Friends like this: The impact of the US–China trade war on global value chains

This paper considers the indirect impact the recent tariff increases between the United States and China can have on third countries through links in global supply chains. We combine data from input–output relationships, imports and tariffs, to calculate the impact of the tariff increases by both the United States and China on cumulative tariffs paid by third countries. We show that the tariff hikes increase cumulative tariffs for other countries and thus hurt trade partners further downstream in global supply chains. We also show that this is particularly important for tariff increases on Chinese imports in the United States. These are likely to be used as intermediates in production in the United States, which are then re-exported to third countries. The most heavily hit third countries are the closest trade partners, namely the EU, Canada and Mexico. We estimate that the tariffs impose an additional burden of around 500 million to 1 billion US dollars on these countries. China's tariffs on US imports have less of an effect.     

Trade configurations in Asia: Assessing de facto and de jure regionalism

Given the backdrop of significant uncertainties largely propelled by the ongoing trade spat between the United States and China, to what degree can the Asian region move forward in terms of de facto trade integration? Drawing on the new economic geography literature, this paper offers new insights into the literature on trade regionalism in Asia by empirically illustrating how Asian economies can tap into the regional market potential. Specifically, the paper examines the scope for further de facto integration among the Asian countries engaged in the negotiation for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement by estimating foreign market potential (FMP) indices. To preview the main findings, the empirical analysis demonstrates that the share of intra-regional trade in total RCEP trade flows and, consequently, the ratio between within- and outside-RCEP trades are significantly lower than what they could potentially be. The paper makes a case that the enhancement of de jure integration among these economies through the RCEP must be accompanied by efforts to improve de facto integration.     

Changing Policies,Shifting Livelihoods: The Fate of Agriculture in Guinea‐Bissau

How do African agricultural livelihoods change under stressful conditions? How do market and agricultural policies and development interventions impact on both agricultural and social change, and consequently on food self‐sufficiency? Which long‐term factors can contribute to ‘depeasantization’? Is the ‘New Green Revolution’ the best and only solution for African food insecurity? These are the main questions this paper sets out to address, using southern Guinea‐Bissau as a case study. On the basis of long‐term ethnographic fieldwork, we look at farmers' responses to external and internal pressures, and analyse how ‘depeasantization’ progresses and livelihoods have been losing their resilience. Chances to reverse this trend, although difficult to implement, may still be feasible.     

The Effect of the Iraq War on Foreign Bank Lending to the MENA Region

This paper examines whether a large geopolitical event, such as the war in Iraq, can affect foreign bank lending from developed countries to emerging markets. Using country-level data, the paper analyzes the effects of economic shocks and the Iraq war on the availability of foreign bank credit to five countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The war has had a nonuniform effect on foreign banks: Although the war has led to higher U.S. lending, it has also discouraged British and Italian banks from lending to the region. Implications concerning the stability and reliability of foreign bank credit in the face of increased geopolitical risks are identified and discussed.     

中美集装箱航运网络格局演化与脆弱性评估

中美两国有着非常紧密的航运贸易联系,中美贸易战引发了人们对中美集装箱航运网络和航运贸易的再思考。基于中美集装箱航运贸易数据、中美航线O-D数据和全球18家船公司的航线数据,采用随机和蓄意攻击两种方式对航运网络进行攻击,通过网络平均度、聚类系数、孤立节点比例、平均路径长度等特征值变化来衡量中美集装箱航运网络脆弱性变化并结合中美贸易数据分析重要港口的影响。结果表明:1995—2017年,中美集装箱航运网络结构呈现出单中心—三中心—多中心的转变;蓄意攻击节点数为7个和22个时,网络开始崩溃和崩溃成诸多子网络;奥克兰港的失效对上海港的影响最大,纽约港和长滩港的失效造成深圳港的平均变化率较大;釜山港、新加坡港、东京港、巴生港和曼萨尼约港等中介港口对中美集装箱航运网络的正常运营至关重要。     

郁达夫爱国思想发展脉络初探

郁达夫以现代文学家著称,但其爱国思想和行动却更为珍贵。郁达夫一生才高八斗,形骸放浪,思想行踪扑朔迷离,但理其脉络,我们依然可以发现他那颗金子般发光的拳拳爱国心。     

Modeling cause-of-death mortality using hierarchical Archimedean copula

Studying changes in cause-specific (or competing risks) mortality rates may provide significant insights for the insurance business as well as the pension systems, as they provide more information than the aggregate mortality data. However, the forecasting of cause-specific mortality rates requires new tools to capture the dependence among the competing causes. This paper introduces a class of hierarchical Archimedean copula (HAC) models for cause-specific mortality data. The approach extends the standard Archimedean copula models by allowing for asymmetric dependence among competing risks, while preserving closed-form expressions for mortality forecasts. Moreover, the HAC model allows for a convenient analysis of the impact of hypothetical reduction, or elimination, of mortality of one or more causes on the life expectancy. Using US cohort mortality data, we analyze the historical mortality patterns of different causes of death, provide an explanation for the ‘failure’ of the War on Cancer, and evaluate the impact on life expectancy of hypothetical scenarios where cancer mortality is reduced or eliminated. We find that accounting for longevity improvement across cohorts can alter the results found in existing studies that are focused on one single cohort.     

日本军工产业规模分析

20世纪90年代以来，伴随日本实现向海外派兵、强化美日同盟、共同研究与部署TMD、修改防卫计划大纲等政策与策略的实施，日本军工产业的发展问题被提上新的议事日程。战后以来形成的“军产复合体”推动日本强化军事实力的同时，也将修改、撒消武器出口三原则和开拓武器生产的国际市场作为长期维持产业基础的核心政策。日本长期奉行的“寓军于民”的政策使其军工产业具备了一定的规模，今后武器生产能力与出口意愿之间某种结合，可能会对日本安全政策与地区军备竞赛的态势产生很大的影响。     

抗战时期中华全国美术会活动情况透视

中华全国美术会在配合抗战的同时以建设、发展常规的美术教育和美术活动为立足点,在战时中国美坛发挥了重要影响.虽然中华全国美术会在以自身力量影响社会,支援抗战方面,做得并不尽人意,但正是作为官方美术机构表现出的这种艺术包容性,使得当时的很多艺术家可以相对从容地进行艺术探索,没有使中国绘画的现代化进程因为要服从于抗战的时代任务而完全中断.     

信息化战争通用装备物流保障模式浅析

针对信息化战争对通用装备物流保障提出的新要求,从模式角度研究入手,对信息化战争通用装备物流保障模式的概念、模式构想等问题提出新的思路,并以研究信息化战争通用装备物流保障模式的体系结构与运行方式两方面为基础,深化了对信息化战争通用装备物流保障模式的理性认识。