非战争军事行动装备保障资源调配模型

本文基于对非战争军事行动装备保障问题的研究,对非战争军事行动装备保障资源调配中存在问题和建模的影响因素进行了分析和描述,采用DSCP方法对保障资源调配决策进行建模,并给出了案例分析。     

1986年石油价格战及其对当前市场的启示

1986年石油价格战是最具典型意义的一次"反向石油危机"。这次"反向石油危机"并非沙特阿拉伯及欧佩克增产所致,而是由需求危机所引发。实际上,沙特阿拉伯与欧佩克增产早在1985年四季度就已调整到位,而在1986年,沙特阿拉伯或欧佩克的产量调整与国际油价变化呈现一定的正相关关系。据1986年价格战期间产油国的表现判断,在当前极端市场环境下,产油国集体被动减产不可避免,但在严重的财政赤字压力下,"欧佩克+"减产必然缺乏纪律性,边际油田退出以及需求回暖所带来的市场空间会很快被产油国增产所填补。除非石油需求恢复到危机爆发前的水平,否则产油国的竞争性行为将会把国际油价长期压制在较低水平。     

西方战争伦理的理论体系及当代论争

在国际关系领域,战争伦理是一个带有鲜明西方意识形态色彩的概念。由于历史及现实等多重因素的影响,对战争伦理的纯理想主义、虚无主义以及军国主义认知方式在世界上的影响力皆日渐式微。当代西方战争伦理的主流是务实的和平主义,其体系可划分为战争权利伦理、战争行为伦理和战争责任伦理三个方面,这其中关于人道主义干涉、先发制人、核伦理以及太空军事化等问题已经成为当今世界的热点问题。尽管战争伦理在当前的实际运用中仍然受到现实环境的极大制约,但从长远看,由于战争制约及规范机制的完善、战争观念的转变、战争博弈的推动以及军事技术的发展,战争伦理在未来发挥作用日趋增强具有历史必然性。在当前时代背景下,中国作为负责任的大国,应当扛起国际道义的大旗,积极充当现有伦理秩序的合作者和主要参与者,逐步争取成为规则的制定者和主导者。     

Changing Policies,Shifting Livelihoods: The Fate of Agriculture in Guinea‐Bissau

How do African agricultural livelihoods change under stressful conditions? How do market and agricultural policies and development interventions impact on both agricultural and social change, and consequently on food self‐sufficiency? Which long‐term factors can contribute to ‘depeasantization’? Is the ‘New Green Revolution’ the best and only solution for African food insecurity? These are the main questions this paper sets out to address, using southern Guinea‐Bissau as a case study. On the basis of long‐term ethnographic fieldwork, we look at farmers' responses to external and internal pressures, and analyse how ‘depeasantization’ progresses and livelihoods have been losing their resilience. Chances to reverse this trend, although difficult to implement, may still be feasible.     

The Effect of the Iraq War on Foreign Bank Lending to the MENA Region

This paper examines whether a large geopolitical event, such as the war in Iraq, can affect foreign bank lending from developed countries to emerging markets. Using country-level data, the paper analyzes the effects of economic shocks and the Iraq war on the availability of foreign bank credit to five countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The war has had a nonuniform effect on foreign banks: Although the war has led to higher U.S. lending, it has also discouraged British and Italian banks from lending to the region. Implications concerning the stability and reliability of foreign bank credit in the face of increased geopolitical risks are identified and discussed.     

Visualising defence and war in economic history journals (1989–2018)

ABSTRACT

Economics usually takes for granted a peaceful world with peaceful market transactions, where war and conflict are anomalies to the current state of business life. However, as History shows violence is a pervasive phenomenon. How is the current state of the art of research on war and defence in economic history journals? This paper provides an overview of research published on this topic by a selection of economic history journals since the fall of Berlin wall. By means of bibliometric and cluster analysis, and using visualising analytical tools, we show the production, main topics, authors, sources, etc. on this research area, and compare with the treatment received in economic journals. The main findings are that publications in economic history journals have increased in the last decades; cover a list of themes broader than that in economic journals; give an increasing importance to quantitative techniques; cite sources from the same area as well as from the top economic journals; and show a relative lack of appeal to neighbouring disciplines. Although economics and economic history influence each other, the direction of the scientific knowledge is going mostly from economics towards economic history rather than the opposite.     

Designing wartime economic controls: Productivity and firm dynamics in the Japanese cotton spinning industry, 1937–9

In 1937, the Japanese government accelerated the expansion of its military expenditure and began to impose controls on the economy to maintain the balance of international payments. The controls were developed through trial and error. The cotton spinning industry was one of the industries most deeply affected by these controls. Initially, the government simply reduced the allocation of foreign exchange for raw cotton imports. However, because this measure prevented the export of cotton products, especially to countries outside the yen bloc, a new scheme of control, the ‘export–import link system’, was adopted from the second half of 1938. This scheme was intentionally designed to give firms incentives to export to non-yen bloc countries and to incorporate elements of market mechanisms into the system of economic controls. Analysing firm-level data, we find that under the link system, firms with higher labour productivity (LP) tended to grow faster, as occurs under a market economy. This relationship was not observed during the early stage of the controls. This difference is reflected in the pattern of change in aggregate LP. Under the export–import link system, the positive reallocation effect was substantial, similar to a market economy, whereas it was almost zero under the early controls. These findings indicate that the design of controls matters for the performance of controlled economies.     

Macroeconomic volatility and anti-refugee violence in developing countries: Evidence from commodity price shocks

I investigate the effect of macroeconomic (output) volatility on anti-refugee violence in developing countries. Opportunity cost, rapacity, and state capacity theories predict ambiguous effects. For causal inference I leverage output volatility caused by plausibly exogenous commodity price shocks. I find that adverse commodity price shocks increase both violence of natives against refugees and violence between refugees. My results suggest that anti-refugee violence increases during recessions and decreases during economic booms.     

The Ukraine/Russia conflict: Geopolitical and international business strategies

The Ukraine and Russian conflict is one of the most pressing current global business issues. It has become a political and social issue that is influencing business practices around the world. While the topic is popular in the mainstream business press, there has been relatively little academic work on the topic. To address this gap, this article discusses the impact of the conflict on international business in terms of the perception by society about Ukrainian or Russian business activities. This means highlighting how a conflict can involve direct military intervention but also social interaction. This article reveals that there are many effects on global business stemming from the Ukraine–Russian conflict many of which are currently known, but others will be known in the future. Managerial implications are stated in the article that highlights the cultural and social impact of the crisis as well as future research suggestions for international business researchers that stress the importance of the conflict.     

Cross-category spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty between China and the US: Time and frequency evidence

This study investigates the connectedness among three types of economic policy uncertainties, namely monetary, fiscal, and trade uncertainties, between China and the US. We used the spillover index measurement and the frequency-domain decomposition approach to detect the spillover effects of these categorical uncertainties from both the time- and frequency-domain perspectives. The results suggest that the spillover effects have time-varying characteristics, and some major events could sharply increase the spillover indices. More spillovers are mainly observed in the short-term, whereas the impacts of the medium- and long-term are limited. Furthermore, the leader of the spillover is monetary policy in China, but fiscal policy in the US, the spillovers of all uncertainties mainly exist domestically, apart from the US trade policy uncertainty. These results provide crucial implications for policymakers and investors, who should pay more attention to short-term spillovers and monetary policy uncertainty, which can mitigate their vulnerability to policy uncertainty shocks.