Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

We investigate the role of international trade and proximity to war in international stock markets during the invasion of Ukraine by employing DiD designs and panel data comprising 70 stock markets. We find that differences in trade exposure to warring countries (trade effect) have a substantial and negative impact on non-European equity markets but are irrelevant for European markets. In contrast, differences in the distance to warring countries (proximity effect) have a significant and negative impact on European markets but have no bearing on non-European markets. We find that the relevance of rent from mineral, natural gas, and oil resources and the relevance of metals, ores, and fuels in exports operate as mitigators of the trade effect. Our paper provides valuable empirical evidence regarding the importance of mitigating the vulnerability of financial markets to international trade when a major war breaks out.     

自愿出口限制的性质与成因分析

本文以存在剩余劳动的大国和存在政治压力的小国为背景,分析了自愿出口限制(VER)的性质和成因。VER对出口国总是被迫的,是进出口双方力求回避贸易摩擦成本的结果,而厌恶风险的政府对贸易限制结果确定化的要求是VER采取数量限制形式的原因。     

Designing wartime economic controls: Productivity and firm dynamics in the Japanese cotton spinning industry, 1937–9

In 1937, the Japanese government accelerated the expansion of its military expenditure and began to impose controls on the economy to maintain the balance of international payments. The controls were developed through trial and error. The cotton spinning industry was one of the industries most deeply affected by these controls. Initially, the government simply reduced the allocation of foreign exchange for raw cotton imports. However, because this measure prevented the export of cotton products, especially to countries outside the yen bloc, a new scheme of control, the ‘export–import link system’, was adopted from the second half of 1938. This scheme was intentionally designed to give firms incentives to export to non-yen bloc countries and to incorporate elements of market mechanisms into the system of economic controls. Analysing firm-level data, we find that under the link system, firms with higher labour productivity (LP) tended to grow faster, as occurs under a market economy. This relationship was not observed during the early stage of the controls. This difference is reflected in the pattern of change in aggregate LP. Under the export–import link system, the positive reallocation effect was substantial, similar to a market economy, whereas it was almost zero under the early controls. These findings indicate that the design of controls matters for the performance of controlled economies.     

Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

Using ex post tariff schedules for the first time, it was found that the global gains provided by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are not enough to overcome the negative impacts of the United States–China trade dispute. While trade tensions cause China's welfare loss to be more than twice as large as the United States, they provide some trade diversion to RCEP members. But of concern is if India successfully delays the conclusion of the RCEP even by a year, there will be a global loss of US$17.7 billion. The RCEP is also beneficial for the emerging economy of Vietnam and the high‐tariff‐imposing Korean economy. The results obtained here are, however, conservative as reduction in non‐tariff barriers and other positive spillover effects of trade liberalisation related to investment and productivity improvements due to competition or increased intra‐industry trade could not be accounted for.     

How beer created Belgium (and the Netherlands): the contribution of beer taxes to war finance during the Dutch Revolt

ABSTRACT

The present-day border between Belgium and the Netherlands can be traced back to the separation of the Low Countries after the Dutch Revolt (1566–1648) against Spanish rule. The capacity to finance the escalating cost of war determined the outcome of this conflict. As Spain struggled to provide regular pay to its troops, its war efforts were often plagued by mutiny. In contrast, the Dutch Republic managed to raise large sums for its war budgets. As we show in this article, excise taxes on beer consumption were one of the largest income sources in Holland, the leading province of the Dutch Republic. Over the course of the Revolt, Dutch beer taxes brought in the equivalent of 29% of Spanish tax revenues on silver from America. Beer taxes thus played a crucial role in financing the Dutch Revolt which led to the separation of the Low Countries and, eventually, the creation of Belgium.     

Enhancing youth's attitudes towards microcredit in the bottom of the pyramid markets

The bottom of the pyramid (BOP) market comprises a huge customer size of approximately 4 billion globally; hence, segmentation is necessary within this market. The BOP market refers to an aggregate of customers who survive on relatively low‐income levels. In this respect, youth in war‐affected regions can be considered to be a segment of the BOP market. However, there is scant research on customers' attitudes and purchase behaviours in the BOP markets or segments therein. Hence, the purpose of this research is to investigate war‐affected youth's attitudes towards microcredit and the related drivers of these attitudes. The literature revealed four types of attitudes towards microcredit: positive affect, perceived benefits, perceived deterrents and default risk perceptions. Also, knowledge of microcredit and entrepreneurial desire were considered to be the drivers of these attitudes. A total of 795 valid completed surveys were collected from youth aged 18 and above who live in the Northern Province of Sri Lanka. The findings revealed that positive affect enhanced intentions to obtain microcredit, whereas perceived deterrents reduced them. Knowledge of microcredit enhanced attitudes towards microcredit. Also, entrepreneurial desire enhanced the association between positive affect and intentions to obtain microcredit and it decreased the negative association between perceived deterrents and intentions to obtain microcredit. The implications to theory and practice have been discussed which will go a long way in enhancing the attitudes towards microcredit among war‐affected youth and possibly those in the other segments of the BOP market.     

War and economy. Rediscovering the eighteenth-century military entrepreneur

Abstract

The detrimental effects traditionally assigned to warfare in the development of pre-industrial economies have obscured the prominent role that military entrepreneurs played in economic development in this period. Historiography minimises the extent to which war and the concomitant strengthening of the central state provided a whole new range of opportunities for capital investment, a tendency that has been strengthened by the paradigm of Redlich’s ‘decline of the soldier-entrepreneur’ and the technological determinism of the debate on the Military Revolution among others. The aim of this introduction is to look into the background of this relative lack of interest and to reaffirm the mutual dependence of eighteenth-century state-formation and the business of war.     

Propaganda strategies of Korean war-era leaflets*

ABSTRACT

This study employs an interpretive historical analysis of the themes presented in the leaflets produced by South and North Korea during the Korean War. The themes are analysed into four categories: appeals of ideology, personal gratification, communal values, and information dissemination. The most prominent themes of the ideology appeal are those of toadyism, social system criticism, and attacks on the leader of the opponents. Of the personal gratification appeal, themes include persuading opponents to surrender for personal safety, health, and to gain a sense of belonging. Communal value appeal emphasized the Korea's unique characteristics of one blood, one nation, and one ethnicity mentality to promote the authenticity of each side. Information dissemination contained warnings of bomb attacks, claims of superiority in firepower, and assertions intended to disguise the real situation of the war.     

加强信息化战争军事交通运输能力建设

随着科学技术的飞速发展,信息化已经成为这个时代的显著特征之一。而信息化战争也必将成为未来战争中的主要形式之一。为适应新军事变革的需要,加快我军信息化的建设已刻不容缓,而信息化条件下军事交通运输能力的建设就成为摆在我们面前的一个极为紧迫而又重大的课题。