Are the BRIC countries overtaking intermediate countries in the race for international R&D? The case of Spain

The emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) as international locations for foreign direct investment in R&D is a sign that multinationals are relocating their technological activities to new territories. This trend may weaken the supremacy of the developed countries until now considered leaders in innovation, and may mean the loss of the competitive advantages enjoyed by the countries considered intermediate innovators. This paper examines the situation of Spain as a typical intermediate economy and compares it to its main competitors among the BRICs. Based on eight case studies of subsidiaries with R&D centres in Spain, we conclude that the policies adopted by certain emerging economies to develop their national innovation systems are proving effective and that these countries now pose a threat to intermediate economies. However, the BRICs still lag behind in terms of the security of their institutional framework; this situation leaves intermediate countries in an advantageous position.     

Parameter estimates comparison of earnings functions in the PSID and CPS data, 1976–2007

Comparing earnings equations in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Current Population Survey, we find that the PSID considerably underestimates the returns to education during the 1992–2007 period. Non-random selection in the PSID sample appears to be the reason.     

Optimal Retirement with Increasing Longevity

We develop an optimizing life‐cycle model of retirement with perfect capital markets. We show that longer healthy life expectancy usually leads to later retirement, but with an elasticity less than unity. We calibrate our model using data from the US and find that, over the last century, the effect of rising incomes, which promote early retirement, has dominated the effect of rising lifespans. Our model predicts continuing declines in the optimal retirement age, despite rising life expectancy, provided the rate of real wage growth remains as high as in the last century.     

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900 to 2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009).We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree.Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts – including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.     

Bribery,corruption and bureaucratic hassle: Evidence from Myanmar

Corruption has been found to be the most severe obstacle to business operations, according to a recent survey of over 3000 firms in Myanmar. This paper sets out to understand the structure of corruption through an econometric analysis of this survey. It finds that firms with higher ‘ability to pay’ (proxied by sales revenue and employee growth) are more likely to pay bribes. While firms with lower ‘refusal power’ (i.e. those dependent on bureaucratic permissions to export and import) are more likely to find corruption to be an obstacle. A distinct but related question is whether bribes act as ‘efficiency grease’ by allowing firms to circumvent red tape. No evidence is found to support this hypothesis; in fact, firms that pay bribes report greater bureaucratic hassle compared to firms that do not. This result fits in more closely with the view that red tape could be used to extract bribes from firms.     

Scale effects of R&D as reflected in earnings and returns

Using returns to scale as a conceptual foundation, we explore how R&D-related earnings performance and earnings variability depend upon firm size. We find that the positive association between the level of future earnings and R&D intensity increases with firm size, and that the positive association between the volatility of future earnings and R&D intensity decreases with firm size, consistent with R&D productivity increasing with scale. We also show that R&D scale is associated with lower market returns, consistent with the idea that R&D investment risk declines with scale.     

Granular institutional investors and global market interdependence

We study the propagation of global investment risk across markets through the granular view of institutional investors. Applying the conditional value-at-risk estimation to micro-level weekly observations of international mutual funds between 2003 and 2011, we find that idiosyncratic shocks to large institutional investors explain both aggregate market risk and cross-market risk interdependence. Conditional on the US capital markets being in financial distress, idiosyncratic shocks to the top 10% largest funds investing in the US explain about 40% of the risk fluctuations in other non-US markets. The findings are also economically and statistically significant for the top largest funds investing in non-US markets, with the effects becoming especially large during the global financial crisis of 2007–09. These results are robust after controlling for common risk factors and applying alternative measures of idiosyncratic shocks.     

Exporting,R&D investment and firm survival in the Indian IT sector

This paper examines the effect of exporting and R&D investment on firm survival for a panel of Indian IT firms. We show that exporting has competing effects on firm survival. On the one hand, exporting and investing in productivity are complementary activities, while, on the other, exporting activity is an additional source of uncertainty for the firm. We show that both effects influence survival, but operate at different points in time. Specifically, the hazard facing exporters is higher than non-exporters in the initial phase following entry into the export market, reflecting the fact that exporters are particularly vulnerable to shocks in the start-up phase. However, over time, exporters benefit more from productivity gains than non-exporters and the hazard facing exporters falls below that confronting non-exporters.     

Live and let die: A survival analysis of foreign R&D units in Swedish MNEs

This paper develops and tests a set of hypotheses regarding factors that influenced the longevity of foreign research and development units in Swedish multinational enterprises over the period 1992–2012. The results reveal an underexplored aspect of the R&D internationalization—the volatility of foreign R&D laboratories. During the investigated period, more than 40% of the R&D units in the sample had been terminated. The results substantiate earlier research regarding the negative effects of mergers and acquisitions on R&D in acquired units but show that these effects are not immediate. They appear – if at all – with a time lag of several years. The hazard of closure for an individual unit seems to be more strongly related to its role and position within the MNE than to local country characteristics. It was smaller for strongly locally embedded units and units with global mandates, but – contrary to expectations – the hazard was greater for units highly integrated with the rest of the MNE.     

The concept of near money in loyalty programmes

Loyalty reward schemes often have their own currency, for example, frequent flyer miles, which is a form of near money or quasi money. In a variation of earlier work by Snelders et al. (1992), when examining both New Zealand (Study 1) and Hong Kong (Study 2) residents, respondents provided typicality ratings, similarity ratings, and answers and reaction times to the question “Is X a type of money?” for examples of money, near money and objects of value. The results from both studies showed that near money is conceptualised in a way that is like but distinct from legal tender. Two further studies investigated implications of this conceptualisation. Study 3 found that preferences for spending near money were influenced by the ostensible purpose of the currency, and Study 4 showed that near money seemed to be placed outside of regular legal tender mental accounts.