基于羊群效应的滞留旅客转移决策模型及其仿真

针对灾害气候中各重要交通枢纽（汽车站、火车站、机场等）有大面积人群滞留的情况,考虑人群行为的羊群效应,采用贝叶斯网络和影响图作为建模工具,构建滞留旅客转移决策模型,并使用Java语言在Repast平台下建立了考虑羊群效应的滞留旅客转移多主体仿真模型,定量分析了滞留人群存在羊群效应时旅客转移模式的变化及在不同政策环境下羊群效应的系统性能的影响,为政府应对交通枢纽中大面积人群滞留问题提供决策参考。     

Pricing strategies: who leads and who follows in the air and rail passenger markets in Italy

In this paper, we aim at empirically uncovering the existence of price leadership in the passenger transport market, whose oligopolistic structure facilitates the strategic interaction among companies, with price being one of the principal elements of competition. The strategic interaction is particularly favoured by the fact that prices are easily observable online by all competitors. The analysis focuses on selected Italian city-pair markets that differ from one another with respect to the degree of inter- and intra-modal competition and to the characteristics of the transport services provided. We exploit this heterogeneity to study transport operators’ strategic interactions in different competitive environments. We find evidence of the existence of price leadership, even though results differ across city-pair markets. In particular, it emerges that the incumbent operator, in either the air or the rail sector, always holds the role of leader.     

基于支持向量机模型的地铁进站客流量预测

为了更精确地预测短期站点客流量,动态调整城市轨道交通的日常客流方案,采用支持向量机模型对预测地铁客流量。首先,通过对AFC数据分析,利用上周同期进站量、前一天同期进站量、当日前两个时段进站量以及高峰和非高峰时段参数作为模型的输入变量;然后,构造支持向量机预测模型并运用粒子群算法优化模型(PSO-SVM模型),实现地铁站点客流量预测,并进行不同模型预测误差的比较分析;最后,以苏州地铁数据为例,预测汾湖路地铁站的进站客流量。结果表明,优化模型能够有效改善预测误差,预测结果更为准确,证明PSO-SVM方法能有效用于地铁进站客流量的预测研究,为地铁进站客流量预测提供了新的方法。     

基于因果反馈分析的机场旅客吞吐量预测方法研究——以北京首都国际机场为例

为寻求一种预测精度较高的、适应我国民用机场特点的预测方法,在机场供需分析的基础上对机场建设与社会经济发展进行了因果关系分析,提出社会经济和机场供给能力对机场旅客吞吐量的影响同样重要,进而从中提取有效数据,构建BP神经网络模型,实现经济-航空运输需求的转换,从而使预测结果更加精确。通过首都国际机场实例证明,基于因果反馈分析的BP神经网络预测方法更具有独特优势,预测精度得到了大幅提高。     

Service-based capacity strategy for manufacturing service duopoly of differentiated prices and lognormal random demand

Globalization of production has ushered in vibrant manufacturing service industries whose business is to serve the production needs of product engineering firms. In these engineering–manufacturing chains, risk of capacity supply is an important concern for product firms as manufacturers are normally conservative in capacity expansion, especially when demand uncertainty and investment risk are high. To provide quality manufacturing services, this risk must be taken into consideration in formulating a capacity strategy. This paper presents a competition analysis method based on supply risk for a manufacturing duopoly of differentiated prices and lognormal random demand. A novel service-based demand rationing rule is first proposed. Reaction curves and equilibrium of capacity strategy are next derived. Finally, competition behavior of the duopoly is analyzed.     

The impact of COVID-19 on airline passenger travel behavior: An exploratory analysis on the Chinese aviation market

China was the first airline market in the world to be hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been gradually recovering as the pandemic is largely contained domestically. However, with the global pandemic spread and great uncertainty, there has been a remarkable change in airline passengers’ travel behavior. This paper collected air passenger-level data from TravelSky in the Chinese market. In addition to the analyses on aggregate passenger flow patterns, this paper explores changes in airline passenger travel behavior, such as ticket booking time, age distribution of passengers, refunds and ticket changes, and passenger arrival time at airports. This is one of the first studies to focus on micro-level changes in airline passenger travel behavior by using objective passenger-level data. The pandemic-induced psychological changes in air travelers are explored, providing useful managerial and policymaking implications for the normalization of the pandemic and the recovery of the airline market in the post-pandemic era.     

铁路客站建设项目全寿命三维集成管理研究

以铁路客站建设项目为研究对象,针对传统建设项目多个实施主体在管理系统上“组织分隔”、“信息堵塞”、“进程脱节”等引起的效率低下与浪费现象,站在全方位管理视角,以项目管理理论和管理集成理论为基础,依托霍尔提出的逻辑维、时间维、知识维三维体系,结合铁路客站建设项目和铁路行业自身特点,提出铁路建设客站项目管理集成系统的三维结构,并在此基础上,从铁路客站建设项目管理目标、管理进程、管理组织等三个方面进行分析,建立较为完整的铁路客站建设项目全寿命集成管理体系,并提出相关配套措施。     

综合客运交通枢纽分类分级研究

在分析现有研究的基础上,结合城市交通特性和综合客运交通枢纽发展方向,对综合客运交通枢纽定义、分类、分级和规模等问题进行探讨。梳理目前枢纽建设所面临的问题,结合未来城市建设重点以及城市部分功能的调整情况,理清枢纽建设与上述问题之间的内在联系,探讨枢纽的功能定位、分类、分级等问题,为今后综合客运交通枢纽规划建设提供技术支撑,实现不同区域综合客运交通枢纽的差别化布局和规划,促进综合客运交通枢纽系统、区域交通一体化以及社会经济的全面发展。     

First-class airline travelers’ tendency to seek uniqueness: how does it influence their purchase of expensive tickets?

This study explored first-class airline travelers’ need for uniqueness and its impact on their ticket purchase intentions. More specifically, the study investigated the roles of the three subdimensions of the need for uniqueness (i.e. creative choice, unpopular choice, and similarity avoidance) in the formation of travelers’ attitudes toward first-class flights. Consumer attitudes toward first-class flights are hypothesized to increase status value, first-class attachment, and willingness to pay a premium. Based on theoretical relationships between conceptual constructs, the study proposed and tested a model using data from 202 first-class passengers in the United States. The results indicated that all three dimensions of the need for uniqueness positively affect airline travelers’ attitudes toward first-class flights and thus enhanced outcome variables. Furthermore, it was found that materialism moderated the relationship between status value and first-class attachment.     

基于乘客满意度的公交服务水平模糊评价

从乘客的角度出发,建立了公交服务水平评价指标体系,保证了评价结果的客观性。在济南市公交乘客满意度调查的基础上,采用模糊评价方法对每层指标及济南公交的总体服务水平进行评价,济南公交总体服务水平的评价结果为满意。