人员流动与城市间商品价格差异:来自高铁开通的证据

本文以中国高铁开通这一自然实验,采用2001-2016年172个地级市的微观商品价格数据,运用倍差法研究人员流动对城市间商品价格差异的影响。研究表明,高铁开通带来的人员流动,能通过促进要素市场一体化和地区间商务往来,显著降低城市间商品价格差异,由此促进地区间产品市场的一体化。通过更换多个代理变量、控制时间趋势、使用基于随机模拟方法的安慰剂检验和事件分析法等多种方法进行稳健性检验,并分别构建了基于最低成本原则和最短距离原则的最小生成树作为两个工具变量来处理内生性问题后,研究结论依然成立。进一步研究表明,高铁开通能推动区域内、区域间以及不同行政级别城市间的经济一体化;高铁站的合理选址与高铁线路的合理设计对充分发挥高铁开通的作用有重要影响。     

基于长短期记忆网络的轨道交通短期OD客流量预测

为了更准确地掌握轨道交通客流在线网中的时空分布,更高效地匹配客流需求与运输能力,实现提高轨道交通运输效率、改善运营服务质量的目的,提出了一种基于长短期记忆网络的短期OD(交通起止点)客流量预测方法。以历史客流数据为基础,定性分析车站间OD客流量的时空相关性,利用回归分析法定量分析客流影响因素,筛选出运营时刻、运营日特征、最低气温3个时间特征。为提高预测精度,以长短期记忆网络为基础,结合时间特征,为每对起讫点单独构建预测模型,形成了基于长短期记忆网络的轨道交通短期OD客流量预测模型。以苏州市为例进行验证,结果表明,加入了时间特征的短期OD客流量预测模型较移动平均模型、仅利用历史客流数据训练的基于LSTM网络的短期OD客流量预测模型,预测结果与真实值之间的误差降低了6.27%～8.58%,所提出的方法和模型可为轨道交通运营部门制定列车运行计划、组织客运工作提供更准确的数据资料。     

地铁服务质量对乘客满意度和忠诚度的影响研究

由于地铁具有安全、快捷的优点,其日益成为人们外出的主要交通工具。文章构建了地铁服务质量对乘客满意度及忠诚度的关系模型,包括8个构面(有形性、可靠性、反应性、保证性、关怀性、舒适性、乘客满意度和乘客忠诚度),提出13条假设。通过实证研究验证了各因素之间的相互作用关系,其中11条假设成立并呈现出不同程度的影响,而舒适性与乘客满意度及忠诚度之间的假设不被支持。基于研究结果,提出一系列改善地铁服务进而持续吸引乘客的建议,旨在促进城市地铁的良好发展。     

Business failures in institutionally weak environments: An examination of Virgin Atlantic’s failed adventure in sub-saharan africa

In view of the paucity of scholarly work on how conditions in weak institutional environments at organizational founding can persist leading to eventual international joint ventures (IJVs), this paper utilizes the case of Virgin Nigeria Airways to illuminate our understanding of the subject. Based on semi-structured interviews, we developed a four-phase model that demonstrates the persistent interactions of internal and external factors. The four phases are as follows: pre-formation resource mobilization, formation and embryonic challenges, decoupling and rebranding, and phasing out. Phase 1 highlights political and non-political activities geared towards venture formation and resource mobilization. Phase 2 focuses on the decoupling of functional activities and the loss of legitimacy in response to changing political and economic conditions in the country. Phase 3 sheds light on triggers for corporate rebranding activities resulting from loss of identity and legitimacy. In Phase 4, we highlight the dispute with the government that typified and culminated in the airline's demise. We identify and examine the implications of these findings.     

Passenger emergency evacuation from bus carriage: Results from realistic data and modeling simulations

One of critical challenges in the development of pedestrian models is the lack of relevant data under emergency conditions. In this paper, we reveal several behavior characteristics of passenger emergency evacuation from a burning bus carriage, by observing and analyzing a video recording, attempting to close the gap between practical observation and theoretical modeling. The analysis results show that there are considerable differences between real emergency evacuation and experimental normal evacuation with respect to the cumulative flows, flows, and time gap distributions. Additionally, the behavior of falling-down, which contributes to the formation of movable obstacles, interrupts the continuity of the evacuation process. Then, we incorporate these behavioral characteristics into a microscopic pedestrian model with a fine lattice space representation. The simulation results indicate that the escape is slowed down by the falling behavior, as well as by the luggage-carrying behavior.