Inference for large financial systems

We treat the parameter estimation problem for mean‐field models of large interacting financial systems such as the banking system and a pool of assets held by an institution or backing a security. We develop an asymptotic inference approach that addresses the scale and complexity of such systems. Harnessing the weak convergence results developed for mean‐field financial systems in the literature, we construct an approximate likelihood for large systems. The approximate likelihood has a conditionally Gaussian structure, enabling us to design an efficient numerical method for its evaluation. We provide a representation of the corresponding approximate estimator in terms of a weighted least‐squares estimator, and use it to analyze the large‐system and large‐sample behavior of the estimator. Numerical results for a mean‐field model of systemic financial risk highlight the efficiency and accuracy of our estimator.     

Changes in airport operating procedures and implications for airport strategies post-COVID-19

Covid-19 is demanding a lot of changes in the realm of our daily lives. The aviation industry is also facing unprecedented changes in the management environment. Financial tensions across the sector are rising. This study suggests that the airport strategy's direction focusing on commercial revenue management. After Covid-19, safety and hygiene will be the top priority. As a result, changes in airport operating procedures are inevitable. The most noticeable difference will be the strengthening of the verification process for passengers' health conditions. Dwell time increase can be the by-products. This study identifies a dwell time increase has a more significant impact on increasing the existing purchasers' spending than creating new buyers. Airport operators can introduce a service differentiation perspective, such as a dedicated service, to utilize the current buyers' dwell time more faithfully. Also, the rise of online channels requires airport operators to change sales strategies, reinforcing emotional promotion to stimulate impulse buyers' willingness-to-buy. Before Covid-19, there was little effort to reconcile operation policies and commercial revenue despite the growing importance of revenue management. However, now it is time to change. Pre-Covid-19, passengers were advised of using off-airport processes, such as online check-in and mobile boarding passes. Now, getting passengers to the airport quickly and securing their dwell time can be financially more beneficial. It is necessary to incorporate the commercial revenue perspective into operation policies post-Covid-19 actively. Our finding indicates that even a passenger with solid purchasing power may lose the purchasing intention when assigned to an unfavorable gate or terminal. Airport operators need a better understanding of passenger and flight characteristics when determining operation policy, such as gate allocation or membership services.     

基于离散选择模型的推荐系统改进算法

准确地预估用户的点击率,并根据该概率对商品排序以供用户选择在推荐系统领域有着重要的意义。推荐系统中常用的因子分解机等机器学习模型一般只考虑用户选择单个商品的概率,忽略了候选商品之间的相互影响,离散选择模型则考虑将商品候选集作为整体进行考虑。提出了使用深度学习模型来改进离散选择模型,模型使用相对特征层、注意力机制等网络结构帮助深度学习模型进行不同商品间的特征比较,研究结果表明引入离散选择模型的深度学习模型表现优于梯度提升决策树、因子分解机等模型。     

Does gender matter? The association between gender and the use of management control systems and performance measures

Literature shows that female (male) managers are more likely to adopt a transformational (transactional) leadership style, as well as make greater (lesser) use of information for decision-making. We draw on this research to investigate whether gender is related to a manager's use of management control systems (MCS) and performance measures. We surveyed the head of school of all schools across all Australian public universities. Our results indicate that females use MCS in an interactive manner to a greater extent than their male counterparts and make greater use of non-financial performance measures. We conclude with contributions to theory and practice.     

Unconscious Processes of Organizing: Intergroup Conflict in Mental Health Care

A critical but overlooked issue in Weick’s seminal work, The Social Psychology of Organizing (1969/1979), concerns ‘the heat’ of organizing processes, namely, the underground emotional processes underpinning the organizing of conflictual work relationships. We present a qualitative case study of psychiatric agencies mandated by public policy to collaborate but instead engaged in persistent conflict despite its deleterious effects on their working relationship and on the wellbeing of the clients they intended to serve. To explain these conflictual features of organizing, we integrate Weick’s organizing theory with systems psychodynamics to deepen the understanding of emotions in organizing, specifically the motivational forces underpinning sensemaking and actions between interacting psychiatric agencies. This integration of theories reveals a critical feature of the relationship between the conscious and unconscious organizing processes: When a threat is involved, sensemaking and action are overtaken by social defences, resulting in dysfunctional organizing of the primary task. Drawing on these findings, we enrich Weick’s seminal work by developing a model that portrays organizing as the ritualized interaction of emotions, sensemaking and behavioural responses.     

Analyzing passenger behavior in airport terminals based on activity preferences

Airport terminals are facilities that provide a variety of activities related to both the preparation of the passengers for their air trip (aeronautical) and their free time inside the terminal (non-aeronautical). In the last years, the number of non-aeronautical activities has substantially increased and significantly diversified both before and after the security checkpoint. The established role of non-aeronautical activities forces planners and managers to better understand passenger behavior. The potential of discrete choice models for the exploration of passenger behavior is analyzed in this paper. For the demonstration of the methodology, Lisbon Humberto Delgado International airport is used as a case study. Data is collected through a revealed and stated preference survey inside the terminal at the area before the security checkpoint. Activity-choice models are developed to identify the factors that affect the choices of the passengers over the area where they conduct non-aeronautical activities. Forecasts show that when increasing the percentage of passengers who conduct the check-in online and have planned their activities before arriving at the airport, the passengers’ preferences to conduct non-aeronautical activities only after the security checkpoint increase. This paper shows the contribution of developing discrete choice models in the better comprehension of passenger decisions over the activities they perform in an airport terminal.     

Airport efficiency in the dawn of privatization: The case of Greece

Until recently, all airports in Greece were owned and managed by the state; however, the recent economic crisis led the Greek government to privatize 14 regional airports. This paper evaluates the performance of the 38 Greek airports open to civil aviation just before the privatization was concluded. It also aims to highlight that the majority of airports with high efficiency were selected to be privatized. The analysis was performed applying Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) using 2011 and 2015 operational and financial data. Results showed that, despite the economic crisis, overall efficiency improved between 2011 and 2015, mainly due to the spectacular increase in incoming international passenger traffic. Changes in efficiency can be attributed by and large to exogenous factors such as operations of low-cost carriers and charter operators along with the seasonal operations of established carriers at individual airports. Findings confirm that the majority of high efficiency airports were offered to private investors.     

Expanding airport capacity of cities under uncertainty: Strategies to mitigate congestion

Airport capacity constraints are increasingly challenging the growth of air traffic. At the same time, decision-making about airport capacity investments is extremely complex, involving trade-offs. This paper’s objective is to optimise a privately owned airport system’s capacity investment decision in a city under demand uncertainty. Next to the investment size, our real options model incorporates the timing of the investment, as well as the cost of congestion. The results reveal that the larger a city’s initial airport capacity, the smaller its investment will relatively be and the lower the occupancy rate threshold at which investment will take place. We also show that, in case of a higher demand growth combined with more demand uncertainty, the city will benefit from a significantly larger investment, but made later at a higher occupancy rate. In this case, cities with a small initial capacity will sometimes even more than double current capacity. Higher airport charges and an increase in non-aeronautical revenues both lead to a later investment in more capacity, due to the increased project attractiveness. An increase in congestion costs results in a larger investment made earlier, in order to eliminate delays. Airport operational cost and capacity holding cost increases both lead to smaller investments.     

Key drivers of passengers' overall satisfaction at klia2 terminal

The purpose of this study is to examine the airport service quality dimensions based on the ASQ survey and investigate the best predictor for overall satisfaction. The context of this study is the klia2 terminal passengers, which are predominantly users of the low-cost carriers at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. Secondary data obtained from the airport operator on the 2016 ASQ survey for the klia2 terminal was analysed using the PLS-SEM method. The grouping and impact of the thirty-three service quality elements from the ASQ survey were tested against the overall satisfaction element. The findings indicated that twenty-two out of the thirty-three elements were valid measures for the klia2 terminal users which forms the eight dimensions i.e. access, airport environment, airport facilities, arrival services, check-in, finding your way, passport and security. Airport environment was found as the best predictor in determining passengers’ overall satisfaction at klia2 terminal and should be given particular focus by the airport operator for continuous improvements.     

Pathways for a future cadastral system: A socio-technical approach

A vast array of trends and innovations, such as drones and person-to-person trust solutions, have been proposed to revolutionize the task of recording land and property rights. There is, however, a gap in current research regarding how to approach systematically the future(s) of cadastral systems. This paper introduces socio-technical transitions theory and multi-level perspective (MLP) framework in particular as a way to structure potential pathways for cadastral systems. The approach emphasizes the role of institutional rules of the game – the regulative, normative and cognitive institutional elements – in socio-technical transition processes. Using the Finnish cadastral system as a case study, we illustrate the approach by forming three alternative transition pathways: (1) a cadastral system under digital transformation, (2) differentiating urban and rural cadastral systems, and (3) a cadastral system facing new data management challenges. After describing each transition pathway with a narrative storyline, we reflect them in light of previous discourses of the cadastral domain. Thereby, the study provides new insights into discussions about the future of cadastral systems and land administration in general.