循环经济建设探索

通过对国际循环经济实践的认识和对我国循环经济建设现状的思考以及对江苏省循环经济建设案例的分析，揭示了循环经济的实质和循环经济的本质内涵，提出了循环经济建设的时策。     

Aid Effectiveness,Debt Relief and Public Finance Response: Evidence from a Panel of HIPC Countries

Substantial amounts of debt relief have been granted to a set of low-income countries, as an alternative aid modality. Although the theoretical case for debt relief is firmly established, only empirical analysis can show whether debt relief is indeed a (more) effective mode of aid delivery. We investigate the linkages between debt relief and other fiscal variables such as current expenditure, government investment, taxation and domestic borrowing, in comparison to the effects of grants and concessional loans. We find that the fiscal impact of HIPC debt relief follows fairly complex dynamics. For example, debt relief initially reduces government investment, but the effect becomes positive after two years, well outperforming other modes of aid delivery. JEL no. F34, F35, O11, O19     

Dual sourcing of a newsvendor with exponential utility of profit

Dual sourcing strategies supplement inflexible, low-cost country sourcing with quick response manufacturing. Due to short product life cycles, combined with uncertain demand, dual sourcing strategies are very common in several industries, in particular in the sporting goods or fashion industries.Even though scholars have given some attention to the analysis of dual sourcing strategies, the importance of the decision-maker’s risk preferences has not been covered yet.In this paper we analyse dual sourcing strategies using an extended single-product newsvendor model with two order points. Different risk preferences will be modelled using an exponential utility function. Within realistic parameter ranges, the optimal order quantities can only be numerically computed. The findings of this paper show that dual sourcing strategies are always preferable to an exclusive offshore approach, as long as the onshore ordering costs are smaller than the selling price of the considered product. The more risk-averse the decision-maker, the smaller the offshore order quantity will be.     

Alternative Approaches to Multilevel Modelling of Survey Non‐Contact and Refusal

We review three alternative approaches to modelling survey non‐contact and refusal: multinomial, sequential, and sample selection (bivariate probit) models. We then propose a multilevel extension of the sample selection model to allow for both interviewer effects and dependency between non‐contact and refusal rates at the household and interviewer level. All methods are applied and compared in an analysis of household non‐response in the United Kingdom, using a data set with unusually rich information on both respondents and non‐respondents from six major surveys. After controlling for household characteristics, there is little evidence of residual correlation between the unobserved characteristics affecting non‐contact and refusal propensities at either the household or the interviewer level. We also find that the estimated coefficients of the multinomial and sequential models are surprisingly similar, which further investigation via a simulation study suggests is due to non‐contact and refusal having largely different predictors.     

Catalytic defiance as a crisis communication strategy: The risk of pursuing long-term objectives

In 2014, Dairy Khoury, a medium-sized family dairy located in Lebanon, was accused of using a health-threatening carcinogenic substance as a preservative in its products. The news created an immediate food safety concern and a product harm crisis, resulting in dramatic reputation loss and operational risks to Dairy Khoury. In this article, we analyze Dairy Khoury’s response to the product harm crisis through an examination of the communication strategies used to address internal and external stakeholders. We then introduce traditional corrective action response strategies from the crisis communication literature. In the Dairy Khoury case study, the company opted to defend its reputation and clarify the misunderstanding using catalytic defiance, a long-term crisis response strategy. Our analysis provides insight regarding the risks and benefits of pursuing long-term versus short-term strategies during crisis recovery. This article contributes to crisis communication theory and practice and sheds light on the dynamics of crisis management in family businesses.     

人民币新汇制改革的贸易效应之谜——基于我国对外经济贸易特征视角的协整研究和脉冲分解

关于人民币汇制改革在我国贸易均衡方面的表现,文章运用Johansen模型揭示出:人民币升值是近两年贸易顺差形成的主要推动因素,马歇尔-勒纳条件在我国并不适用;依托于我国现行的经济贸易特征,未来一段时间我国仍将唱响贸易顺差的主旋律;在人民币加速升值的今天注重升值节奏对于保持我国贸易收支的稳定不容忽视,这一观点通过脉冲响应函数与方差分解得到了有效印证.     

我国通货膨胀的国际影响因素分析——基于结构向量自回归模型的实证研究

全球金融危机爆发以来,美元持续贬值引起国际原材料价格上涨和国际资本流动扩大.在全球流动性泛滥的背景下,我国通货膨胀屡创新高.文章从美元贬值导致的国际原材料价格波动、国内外利率因素、人民币预期升值三个角度,分别结合国内经济增长,探讨了国际因素对我国通货膨胀的影响.研究发现,国内经济的过热增长是我国通货膨胀的主导因素,但外部冲击特别是国际原油价格对我国通货膨胀的影响也不容忽视.我国不完善的汇率和利率机制,推动了外部因素对我国通货膨胀的冲击,国际因素对我国工业领域通货膨胀的影响相对消费领域而言偏高.     

基于感知与响应的柔性军事供应链理论基础——美军最新供应链理论解读之二

介绍了基于感知与响应的柔性军事供应链所依赖的理论基础,包括网络中心战、客户导向理论、复杂适应系统理论、价值链理论。指出基于感知与响应的柔性军事供应链既有坚实的理论基础,又适应了现代信息化战争的要求,是目前和未来世界各国军事后勤建设追求的重要目标之一。