基于湘两省货币政策效应的差异性研究

以湖南省和广东省为例,分析了两省经济金融发展的差异,并运用VAR模型和脉冲响应检验了统一货币政策在湘粤两省的不同效果。实证结果表明,在央行统一货币政策的前提下,应结合不同地区经济金融发展的差异制定差异化的货币政策,以提高货币政策的地区效应,达到缩小各地区间经济金融发展差距的目的。     

物价与货币政策调控最优契合的实证研究

本文从货币渠道和信贷渠道对物价与货币政策的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,货币政策与物价水平之间存在稳定的均衡关系,但是货币政策存在滞后性,货币供应量M2的滞后期约为2个月,金融机构各项贷款规模的滞后期约为4个月,并基于此对货币政策调控提出相关建议。     

An investigation of fatigue issues on different flight operations

The influence of various kinds of flight operations on pilot fatigue remains a chronic problem which has a bearing on flight safety. In this study we sampled flight crews from six airlines in Taiwan, asking them to report on their perceptions of both physical and mental fatigue, before and after flight duty. The data were then analyzed with paired t-test and ANOVA. Our research results confirm findings obtained in other studies, namely, that perceived fatigue levels increase after flight duty, with that of oceanic crews being greater than that of crews serving either regional or short-haul operations. A majority of the pilots surveyed reported feeling fatigued or even nodding-off during long-distance flights, and consequently were in favor of a program of scheduled cockpit napping. While these findings are preliminary, they offer valuable information to aviation regulators and airlines regarding the assigning of consecutively scheduled flights to the same aircrews.     

Financial development shocks and contemporaneous feedback effect on key macroeconomic indicators: A post Keynesian time series analysis

In this paper we take into account the role of the banking system, credit and stock market in stimulating aggregate demand in post Keynesian tradition. According to the results of impulse response analysis; it appears all three financial development indicators contributed as expected in improving macroeconomic performance of South Korean economy. Stock market capitalisation and domestic credit availability are strongly responsible for stimulation of investment, saving and productivity Growth in Hong Kong. The UK financial system seems vulnerable to future shocks, whether by shocks in the credit markets or stock markets.     

When Good News Is Not So Good: Economy‐wide Uncertainty and Stock Returns

This paper shows that variation in economy‐wide uncertainty causes asymmetric stock price responses to firm earnings surprises. The uncertainty that attends bad earnings news that arrives during expansions with greater economy‐wide uncertainty occasions larger price declines. This is because news inconsistent with investors’ prior beliefs about the state of the economy increases uncertainty, which amplifies the negative cash flow effects contained in bad earnings news. Asymmetrically, the positive cash flow effect of good earnings news that arrives during recessions is offset by increased investor uncertainty, which results in relatively smaller price reactions to the good news. This is consistent with Veronesi's rational expectations equilibrium model, which shows that investors demand higher expected returns in the face of greater uncertainty.     

Advance booking and hotel price variability online: Any opportunity for business customers?

Is it possible for business customers to effectively adjust their purchasing strategies, as a response to revenue management? We consider daily online best available rates for a panel of 357 hotels in Milan and Rome, up to an advance booking of 29 days.We analyse price trajectories, finding that dynamic pricing strategies with no established trend towards the arrival date are prevalent, with a predominance of decreasing trajectories for lower-scale hotels in Milan during fairs. We show that price levels are explained by a variety of structural determinants. We quantify the effects of advance booking, room quality, services, competition, seasonality and fairs, underlining their different importance on leisure and business destinations. Other features, such as breakfast and refunding options, appear to be used as marketing tools to differentiate rooms, keeping a low pace in price adjustment. Managerial implications are discussed, with reference to both corporate travel departments and hôteliers.     

An analysis of wine and food consumption dynamics in Japan using a vector error correction model

This article provides an analysis of long-term equilibrium relationships between wine and food-related consumptions in Japan through the vector error correction model. Utilizing longitudinal data from 1970 to 2009, the analysis suggests that wine consumptions and food-related consumptions are co-integrated. The investigation of orthogonal impulse response functions suggests that food-related items, such as bread, vegetables and eating out are positive factors for wine consumptions. With the expansion of wine consumption and diversification of food consumption patterns, wine is deemed to have gained its place in Japanese ordinary life, regardless of the general state of economy. The estimated results also provide a supporting evidence for previous cross-sectional study findings by others that wine consumers tend to have healthier diet. Despite the downward forecasts for economic performance and some food items, wine consumption is predicted to grow continuously.     

Currency devaluation and stock market response: An empirical analysis

We study local stock market reaction to currency devaluation by a country's central bank. Devaluations appear to be anticipated by the local stock markets, and there are significant negative abnormal returns even one year prior to the announcement of the devaluation. A negative trend in stock returns persists for up to one quarter following the first announcement, and then becomes positive thereafter, suggesting a reversal. We explore whether changes in macroeconomic variables prior to currency devaluations are related to abnormal stock returns. We find that stock returns are significantly lower if the devaluation is larger and if the country is a developing nation. Furthermore, stock markets decline more around devaluations if reserves are lower, if the real exchange rate has depreciated over the prior years, if the capital account has declined, if the current account deficit has gone up, or if the country credit rating has deteriorated.     

A disaster response model driven by spatial–temporal forecasts

In this research, we propose a disaster response model combining preparedness and responsiveness strategies. The selective response depends on the level of accuracy that our forecasting models can achieve. In order to decide the right geographical space and time window of response, forecasts are prepared and assessed through a spatial–temporal aggregation framework, until we find the optimum level of aggregation. The research considers major earthquake data for the period 1985–2014. Building on the produced forecasts, we develop accordingly a disaster response model. The model is dynamic in nature, as it is updated every time a new event is added in the database. Any forecasting model can be optimized though the proposed spatial–temporal forecasting framework, and as such our results can be easily generalized. This is true for other forecasting methods and in other disaster response contexts.     

Assessing the impacts of aviation liberalisation on tourism: Some methodological considerations derived from the Moroccan and Tunisian cases

At a time when the liberalisation of air transport is increasingly being promoted as a means to induce the growth of the tourism business, it is striking that there is little evidence to suggest that such liberalisation has indeed led to a growth in tourism. Furthermore, the evidence is usually restricted to the impacts of sole low-cost airlines on tourist destinations newly served by such airlines. In contrast to various ideological or naïve statements, this paper shows that assessing the relationship between liberalised air markets and trends in tourism is challenging. On the transport side, aviation liberalisation is rarely considered as a dimension that can be measured accurately; similar protected markets are not considered for comparison; and trends in charter flights are neglected. On the tourist side, broad definitions of so-called tourists are usually considered and include immigrants visiting their home country; nights spent are neglected, despite a possible trend in declining length of stay; and substitution between places is usually disregarded, as are the long-term effects.