Accounting-Based Valuation with Changing Interest Rates

This paper generalizes Ohlsons [Contemporary Accounting Research Vol. 11 No. 2. 661–687 (1995)] equity valuation framework to allow for stochastic interest rates. Much of this analysis initially deals with the specialized setting in which earnings suffice for cum-dividend value. In such a case, the beginning-of-period (lagged) rate determines the capitalization factor, not the current rate. The underlying earnings dynamic modifies the traditional random walk model via an additional term, namely current earnings multiplied by the percentage change in interest rates. The general model retains these basic aspects of the earnings-sufficiency setting. Empirical implications bear on the returns-to-earnings regression: The earnings-response coefficient decreases as the beginning-of-period rate increases.JEL Classification: M41, G12     

Noninterest income mix and bank performance: Generalized propensity score fractional dose–response function evidence

This paper investigates the impact of different levels of noninterest income on the risk-adjusted profitability and financial stability of banks in the Middle Eastern and North African banking industry from 1988 to 2020. We apply a program impact evaluation analysis, using the generalized propensity score-fractional dose–response function method, and assess the effect of each level (or dose) of noninterest income mix on bank performance (the dose–response function). Splitting the sample into Gulf Cooperation Council- and non-Gulf Cooperation Council-based banks reveals that while higher levels of revenue diversification are beneficial for the former, a focus on traditional banking activities is preferable for the latter to achieve the best performance. The findings could serve as an early warning flag for bank managers, policy-makers, and regulators in dealing with these strategic shifts.     

如何防范住房公积金风险

本文在阐述我国住房公积金的主要风险类型及其成因的基础上,在建立有效监督系统、发展住宅储蓄信贷与融资机制、提高公积金运行质量、加强个人住房贷款信用风险管理等方面对防范住房公积金风险进行了思索.     

Interactions of stock markets within the greater China economic bloc

This paper investigates what types of mutual relationships exist among the stock markets of the Greater China economic bloc, which include stock markets in Hong Kong and Taiwan, as well as stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Using the unit root test, co‐integration analysis, and vector error correction model (VECM), this paper analyzes interrelationships among daily stock indices for the period from the beginning of 1992 to the end of 2001. Test results indicate the existence of one co‐integrating vector, implying that a long‐run equilibrium relationship holds among the four stock indices. Variance decomposition of forecast errors provides evidence that the Shenzhen stock market is the market most heavily influenced by the unexpected variations of other markets in the Greater China economic bloc.     

Less speed more haste: The effect of crisis response speed and information strategy on the consumer−brand relationship

This paper investigates the relationship between firm crisis behavior and the resulting consumer–brand relationship (CBR) response. Drawing from theoretical traditions in brand transgressions, service failure, and crisis communications, we use longitudinal survey data combined with archival social media data to empirically test the effect of crisis response speed and crisis information strategy on the short-term consumer crisis response evaluations (1 month after crisis response), and the long-term CBR (1 year after crisis response). Results show that, contrary to intuitive expectations, a faster firm response is not always better, as a slower response was found to result in higher crisis response evaluations. We also show that this effect depends on the consistency of the communication strategy with the first active response. Specifically, when a firm prioritizes safety information (instructing strategy), a faster response is better. Whereas, when the firm prioritizes well-being information (adjusting strategy), a slower response is better. We argue the counterintuitive finding that a slower response is better implies that reacting too quickly may signal rashness and unpreparedness to the customer, leading to more negative evaluations. We term this distinction the difference between being responsive (fast but considered) and reactive (faster but rash).