The Economics of Lockdown

In this paper, we suggest an approach to analysing policies relating to the COVID-19 pandemic. We discuss the formulation of policy and sketch how the approach can be applied to different specific challenges as policymakers try to make difficult choices for managing the pandemic and protecting the economy and society.     

The 2020 Presidential election: A race against mortality

A year from the inauguration, four of the top five Democratic 2020 U.S. Presidential election candidates in the polls are in their seventies. Using actuarial data and the history of Presidential assassinations, the top two contenders, Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, have a 24–29% chance of not surviving to the end of a hypothetical first term. The 77 and 78‐year‐old men's chances of dying before the end of a second term as President of the United States are between 46 and 56%.     

Effects of COVID-19 restrictions on mechanization service providers and mechanization equipment retailers: Insights from phone surveys in Myanmar

Agrifood sector mechanization service providers (MSP) and mechanization equipment retailers (MER) have increasingly become the providers of mechanical technologies for smallholders in developing countries, including Myanmar. Evidence remains scarce on the effects of COVID-19 on these MSPs and MERs. This study provides insights into the effects of COVID-19 restrictions on MSPs and MERs in Myanmar, using unbalanced panel data from five rounds of phone surveys. Direct responses to COVID-19 involving movement restrictions, market disruptions, and growing financial challenges had significant negative effects on revenue prospects, service delivery, and sales of machines and equipment. Negative revenue prospects during a particular period can further hurt revenue prospects in subsequent periods. This is consistent with the hypotheses that MSPs who had incurred high sunk costs in machines can engage in more desperate and, thus, potentially suboptimal business practices to recover the sunk cost. Overall, policies to minimize movement restrictions and various financial struggles and mitigate any pessimism at the beginning of the production season are all important to make sure MSPs and MERs continue to function effectively under COVID-19.     

The choice between business travel and video conferencing after COVID-19 – Insights from a choice experiment among frequent travelers

COVID-19 has accelerated the substitution of videoconferencing for business travel. However, little research exists about the decision-making behavior of business travelers considering virtual alternatives. We fill this gap by reconceptualizing the decision-making process and investigating the fundamental choice between face-to-face (FtF) and virtual communication (VC) using an adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis. We argue that the process of decision making of business travelers is distinct to that of leisure travelers, as the fundamental decision between FtF and VC occurs prior to subsequent travel decisions. We show that the purpose of the meeting, the character of the message, and the location of the meeting are the decision attributes of greatest importance. Using a novel methodology we present a holistic decision model that increases the theoretical understanding of business traveler decision-making and provide practitioners with comprehensive insights relevant to travel policy development, and executives in the business travel market with guidance with management decisions.     

Elections and COVID-19 benefit payments

This study examines the political factors associated with the implementation of a benefit payment policy in Japan during the COVID-19 crisis. The Japanese government announced a universal cash payment program in April 2020, but the payment date differed across localities. This study estimates the correlation between this timing and local politicians’ characteristics, finding that local governments with mayors elected unopposed tended to start making payments comparatively early. As such, mayors elected uncontested may be able to mobilize resources within government offices to execute programs such as the Special Fixed Benefit program in Japan, which attracted public attention.     

Employee turnover dynamics in the hospitality industry vs. the overall economy

High employee turnover is a widely known reality for the hospitality industry. However, the extent to which employee turnover in the hospitality industry depends on overall economic activities or idiosyncratic characteristics of the hospitality industry is not clear. The purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which the employee turnover rate in the hospitality industry is sensitive to the overall US economy. Also, the COVID-19-pandemic has further exacerbated an already convoluted issue of employee turnover for hospitality businesses. Therefore, we further investigate the extent to which employee turnover rate in the hospitality industry are sensitive to the overall US economy during the pandemic period. The results show that employee turnover in the hospitality industry has the highest sensitivity to the economy. However, employee turnover in the hospitality industry decreases the most in the overall US economy when economy-wide turnover increases. The theoretical and practical implications are extensively discussed.     

Post pandemic aviation market recovery: Experience and lessons from China

China was the first aviation market in the world hit hard by COVID-19 and has been recovering gradually as the pandemic became largely under control within mainland China. This study reviews the recovery pattern influenced by the Chinese government's aviation policy choices, in the hope that our discussions and findings will help improve aviation policy responses elsewhere. While the domestic market in mainland China has enjoyed a quick recovery to about 80% of the pre-crisis level by July 2020, the recovery of international services has been much slower, due to the bilateral route and flight frequency/capacity control and strict requirements for health check and quarantine. China's domestic aviation market was recovered by about 80% in two months after the pandemic became under good control. Most other countries with a “curve flattening” strategy, instead of full pandemic control, may not expect the fast recovery path China has achieved. A British “travel corridor” approach may be more practical for Western countries to follow, albeit more likely to be subject to serious setbacks and disruptions. The aviation fee reductions and cost support China and many other countries have been using are helpful by reducing airlines' marginal costs, but not sufficient for carriers to return to profitability or sustainable operations. Capital injection and/or credit guarantee may be needed for many airlines to survive. With various, often uncoordinated, regulations imposed in international markets, airlines based in open economies that have small domestic markets will face particularly serious challenges during the recovery process.     

COVID-19 pandemic and prospects for recovery of the global aviation industry

The COVID-19 pandemic ushered a wave of economic decline across the world due to disruptions in the supply and demand chain for the travel market. This study examines potential recovery pathways from the global aviation industry following the severe negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using archival and secondary data mainly from Flightradar24, ICAO, IATA and EUROCONTROL, the study found that the pandemic inflicted a heavy toll on global aviation, which resulted in ratings downgrades, liquidation and bankruptcy of several airlines and airports due to severe cash burn instigated by travel restrictions. Although the industry is opening up, the recovery process seems much slower than anticipated, which could see more jobs and airlines failing in the absence of relevant support. The study recommends that as the sector opens up, it does so in a responsible manner, which puts measures that protect travellers, reduce costs, increase efficiency, and ensure a quality customer experience anchored on employees' health and customer safety. Recovery should also occur with the view to build back better in line with the provisions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and at the same time responding to the dictates of Agenda 2030 on sustainable development goals (SDGs).