稳字当头的2022年中国宏观经济*

2022年是国际国内超预期事件高发的一年。本文认为，“三重压力”叠加“两大超预期冲击”使上半年中国宏观经济运行严重偏离正常增长轨道，呈现“快速探底”“压力加剧”的特征。但随着近期疫情因素逐渐消退和宏观政策刺激力度加大，核心经济参数的拐点纷纷到来，中国经济运行的底部将充分显现。展望下半年，中国宏观经济必将迎来企稳回升态势，但复苏的进程将比2020年更加脆弱，将呈现非对称的“W型复苏”的运行特征。上半年宏观政策调整及时、靠前发力，但力度不足、效率下降；下半年需要更大力度、更加精准的宏观调控举措，政策效果也必将会有更充分的体现。此外，为保证全年经济目标的基本完成，稳经济一揽子措施需要在中期进行扩容和工具的创新。最后，本文结合当前我国宏观经济面临的机遇与挑战，提出了未来我国经济发展的十大建议。     

Predicting and explaining absenteeism risk in hospital patients before and during COVID-19

In order to address one of the most challenging problems in hospital management – patients’ absenteeism without prior notice – this study analyses the risk factors associated with this event. To this end, through real data from a hospital located in the North of Portugal, a prediction model previously validated in the literature is used to infer absenteeism risk factors, and an explainable model is proposed, based on a modified CART algorithm. The latter intends to generate a human-interpretable explanation for patient absenteeism, and its implementation is described in detail. Furthermore, given the significant impact, the COVID-19 pandemic had on hospital management, a comparison between patients’ profiles upon absenteeism before and during the COVID-19 pandemic situation is performed. Results obtained differ between hospital specialities and time periods meaning that patient profiles on absenteeism change during pandemic periods and within specialities.     

Building resilience for sustainability of MSMEs post COVID-19 outbreak: An Indian handicraft industry outlook

The handicraft business constitutes concept selling rather than mere product selling, which is highly dependent on demand. Handicrafts' Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have an expanding market in developed countries. The impact of the pandemic on this industry is severe due to the industry's informal nature and seasonal demand. The survival and resilience of these handicraft MSMEs face many challenges in the post-COVID-19 outbreak. The focus of the present study is to understand and analyze the key challenges for building resilience in handicraft MSMEs by scrutinizing the existing literature and interactions with stakeholders. EFA and the Grey DEMATEL approach are used to analyze the challenges for the adoption of resilience. EFA is used to categorize the challenges into various dimensions. The study has divided the challenges for the inclusion of resilience into survivable, sustainable, and viable categories using EFA to plan for short- and long-term business growth. Grey DEMATEL is being utilized for understanding these contextual relationships for each resilience dimension. Grey systems theory is a methodology that enables the incorporation of improbability and vagueness into the analysis. Findings of the study revealed the influencing challenges for each of the dimensions such as competition from machine-made products, insufficient government support and incentives for export, and inefficient managerial concern and response to internationalization as the prominent challenges. The results of this study illustrate the causal relationships amongst the identified resilience challenges to the various stakeholders. These findings offer practical insights for the government to allocate resources and impose measures to ensure resilience, as well as understanding the cause-effect relationship. Managerial implications and Policy insights for building the resilience of handicraft MSMEs are discussed in detail.     

Health insurance coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of Medicaid expansion

Using data from the US Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, we analyzed the likelihood of loss of health insurance and enrollment into new health coverage during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Loss of employment was associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of loss of health insurance and, specifically, an increase in the likelihood of employer-sponsored health insurance. However, individuals in Medicaid expansion states experienced a lower likelihood of loss of health insurance compared with individuals in nonexpansion states. At the same time, there was a statistically significant increase in Medicaid enrollment in expansion states, by 3.2 percentage points. Reemployment or acquiring employment was associated with a gain in health insurance coverage. During an economic downturn, eligibility, and coverage gaps leave many without affordable coverage options, and the pandemic will likely bring renewed attention to gaps in Medicaid coverage in nonexpansion states.     

COVID-19 and tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets using a copula-based network method. We document a significant increase in the lower and upper tail contagiousness of commodities following the COVID-19 outbreak. Contagion shows an obvious clustering characteristic, that is, there is higher tail risk connectedness between commodities in the same category. Agricultural commodities are significantly less contagious than metals and energy commodities; soft commodities in particular can offer investors significant diversification benefits. There are several hub commodities in the contagion network, chief among them copper, which are good transmitters of shocks and should be treated with caution by investors and regulators. Although tail risk and contagiousness of individual commodities increase together during the pandemic, we find a negative cross-sectional relationship between tail risk and contagiousness, that is, commodities with high tail risk are not necessarily highly contagious and may even be less so.     

Venture capital financing during crises: A bibliometric review

We present the publication trends in the literature on venture capital financing during crises and highlight the top publishing source with the most contributing authors in their affiliated countries using bibliometric and content analysis of 115 documents retrieved from the Scopus database. This study provides insight into the theme with the help of co-occurrence, co-citation, and bibliographic coupling analysis. The authors’ keyword co-occurrence analysis shows the spatial links among the articles based on venture capital during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The top productive and influential source is the journal Venture Capital, followed by Small Business Economics and the Journal of Business Venturing. The Journal of Business Venturing is the top journal in terms of citations per document. The United States is the most contributing affiliated country having strong links with several nations. The publications on crisis-led venture capital increased significantly after the financial crisis of 2008.     

COVID-19, a blessing in disguise for the Tech sector: Evidence from stock price crash risk

In this paper we document that although COVID-19 has brought uncertainties to the overall economy, the Technology (tech) sector is the systematic beneficiary of the pandemic. Using a quasi-natural setup, we find a significant notion that the Stock Price Crash Risk (SPCR) of firms within the Tech sector decreases during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the recent past and firms belonging to other sectors. Our analyses further reveal that firms in the Tech sector with stronger external monitoring and better information environment receive an even greater advantage from the pandemic. Overall, our study suggests that the higher systemic dependency on the Tech sector during the COVID-19 outbreak results in an economic benefit for this sector.     

Expatriates on the run: The psychological effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on expatriates’ host country withdrawal intentions

Extant research on expatriation in high-stress environments where stress is caused by ongoing and unexpected natural crises remains limited. Drawing on stress theory, in this study, we develop a model to examine the stress-inducing effects of intra-family concerns and workplace discrimination on the intentions to leave the host country among expatriates in the high-stress environment of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We also explore whether gender and the level of work adjustment moderate the propensity of intra-family health concerns and workplace discrimination to induce psychological stress. Based on our analysis of 381 expatriates living and working in the United Arab Emirates, we find the model to be generally supported. We also reveal an intriguing moderating effect of work adjustment on the relationship between intra-family health concerns and psychological stress. Overall, the analysis is among the first ones to shed light on the role of natural crises’ stressors in defining expatriate outcomes.     

The political economy of lockdown: Does free media matter?

This paper studies the role of free media in how governments and the public responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. We first document the presence of policy and behavioural responsiveness during the early phase of the pandemic. Using a panel data of daily COVID-19 deaths, lockdown policies, and mobility changes in 155 countries, we find that governments were more likely to impose a lockdown, and citizens to reduce their mobility, as the initial number of deaths increased. To measure the role of media freedom on responsiveness given endogeneity in death reporting, we simulate deaths from a calibrated SEIR model as an instrument for reported deaths. Using this approach, we find evidence that the presence of free media mattered for the timing of early responses to COVID-19. Responsiveness to deaths was limited to citizens in free-media countries, and accounted for 40% of the difference in lockdown decision and mobility changes between free-media and censored-media countries. In support of the role of free media, we show that differences in responsiveness are not explained by a range of other country characteristics such as the level of income, education or democracy. We also find evidence that citizens with access to free media were better informed about the pandemic and had more responsive levels of online searches about COVID-19, supporting the view that free media served to inform the public on the risks of COVID-19.     

Social determinants of panic buying behaviour amidst COVID-19 pandemic: The role of perceived scarcity and anticipated regret

Panic buying behaviour is inherently undesirable due to its detrimental impact on community's resources and disruptions to supply chain systems. The prevailing COVID-19 pandemic has seen a resurgence of this phenomenon across the world, leaving supermarkets in stockout situations. While panic buying is largely reasoned as a psychological reaction to an extreme event, it is also a socially relevant behaviour as our perception of a crisis can be shaped by our observations and interactions within the society. The social determinants of panic buying behaviour, particularly on how these factors heighten one's perception of scarcity, and trigger panic buying behaviour, are studied. A theoretical model is developed to explain panic buying behaviour in a social context by synthesizing various social and behavioural theories, and the inter-relationship among the latent constructs is analysed using the structural equation modelling approach. Accordingly, an online survey was administered and analysis of the data confirmed that non-coercive social influence, social norm and observational learning directly influence one's perception of scarcity. Additionally, perceived scarcity can motivate panic buying behaviour directly or indirectly through feelings of anticipated regret. This study has contributed to the limited literature on panic buying. Understanding the underlying mechanisms of panic buying will aid policymakers and businesses in developing intervention or support strategies to cope with such behaviour.