Is China Living a Minsky Moment? Between the “Lender of Last Resort” and the Chinese Shadow Financial System

After Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, the Central Bank of China (PBOC) created a big 1.8 trillion dollars package to boost the Chinese economy. It was a necessary key measure not only to prop up the economy, but also to try to preserve the two-digit growth of the GDP that existed before the Great Recession. The financial instability of international financial circuits made necessary the involvement of the central bank. Ten years later, China’s debt explosion went up during the financial crisis, from six to twenty-eight trillion dollars between 2007 and 2016. In other words, it went up from 148 to 260 percent of GDP during the same period. The goal of this article is to analyze whether China is living a “Minsky moment” or not, and what its implications are for international financial markets.     

后危机时期国际信用衍生品市场的调整对我国的启示

此次国际金融危机以来,经过各国监管当局及市场各方的努力变革,全球信用衍生品市场正朝着更成熟稳健的方向发展,简单化产品重回市场主导地位,清算机制的完善降低了市场风险,信用衍生品市场规范和市场自律管理得到加强。当前,我国信用衍生品市场已初步建立起有序的监管体系和制度框架,发展信用衍生品市场具备了较好的市场基础,下一阶段,应充分发挥有利条件,克服不利因素,通过创新促进发展,推动我国信用衍生品市场健康发展。     

Monetary policy and stock valuation: structural VAR identification and size effects

This paper examines the relationship between the US monetary policy and stock valuation using a structural VAR framework that allows for the simultaneous interaction between the federal funds rate and stock market developments based on the assumption of long-run monetary neutrality. The results confirm a strong, negative and significant monetary policy tightening effect on real stock prices. Furthermore, we provide evidence consistent with a delayed response of small stocks to monetary policy shocks relative to large stocks.     

Shareholder Value Maximisation,Stock Market and New Technology: Should the US Corporate Model be the Universal Standard? 1

In 1992 a blue‐ribbon group of US economists led by Michael Porter concluded that the US stock market‐based corporate model was misallocating resources and jeopardising US competitiveness. The faster growth of US economy since then and the supposed US lead in the spread of information technology has brought new legitimacy to the stock market and the corporate model, which is being hailed as the universal standard. Two main conclusions of the analysis presented here are: (a) there is no warrant for revising the blue‐ribbon group’s conclusion; and (b) even US corporations let alone developing country ones would be better off not having stock market valuation as a corporate goal.     

黄浦江游船旅游市场现状及世博后效应分析

黄浦江游船旅游是上海最具特色的水上旅游产品,吸引着众多的国内外游客。由于2010年上海世界博览会选址在黄浦江两岸,更促进了黄浦江游船旅游的快速提升。目前黄浦江游船旅游供给相对不足,需求上升较快,矛盾突出。世博会的召开将使这一现象大为改善,供需矛盾得到缓解,而且后效应更大。建议黄浦江游船旅游行业抓住世博机遇,服务世博;立足本地,区域联动;把握现在,放眼未来,实现持续发展。     

中医综合疗法治疗小儿腹泻40例疗效观察

目的观察中药内服外用等综合治疗措施对小儿腹泻的临床疗效。方法 80例小儿腹泻病例纳入观察,以随机数字表法随机分为对照组和治疗组,各40例。所有患者均给予常规的基础治疗包括补液、纠正水电解质紊乱,对照组给予蒙脱石散,治疗组给予中医综合治疗措施,疗程均为5d。结果对照组止泻时间平均(3.32±0.53)d,治疗组止泻时间平均(2.36±0.38)d,经t检验,差异有统计学意义,P<0.05。治疗组显效16例,有效22例,无效2例;对照组显效11例,有效21例,无效8例,经Ridit分析,治疗组优于对照组,P<0.05。结论采用中药内服外敷、结合饮食调护的综合疗效治疗小儿腹泻疗效较好,值得推广使用。     

我国自愿性审计需求市场缺失的原因及治理

本文通过对我国自愿性审计需求市场缺失的具体原因分析,提出在目前情况下,培育自愿性需求市场的关键环节,完善公司治理结构,展开产权制度改革,完善法律制度等具体措施,以增强高质量独立审计的自愿性市场需求。     

美国生物技术企业市场定价及启示

生命科学和生物技术行业不断凸现出投资价值,其日益受到证券市场的青睐,生物技术公司成为了投资者追捧的对象.由于该产业在我国的发展刚刚起步,企业在获取投资者认可等方面还存在很多问题.通过对美国生物技术行业主要上市公司的数据分析,探索了该类企业在证券市场定价的一般规律.     

国际投资者非理性情绪下的中国国际收支稳定性研究

自2001年以来,经常项目账户和资本与金融项目账户顺差的指数型增长将我国推向了全球国际收支平衡问题的风口浪尖。在国际金融危机频发、跨境流动资金波动剧烈的背景下,我国反常顺差所具有的潜在风险非常值得关注。鉴于此,文章的研究重点在于:(1)采用涉及27个国家股票市场的数据,构建并计算了反映国际投资者情绪变化的风险偏好指数;(2)将国际市场投资者情绪等因素纳入分析框架,实证分析了影响国际资金在我国跨境流动的驱动因素,以辨别跨境资金中的不稳定成分,并给出相应的政策建议。     

Parity reversion persistence in real exchange rates: middle income country case

This article investigates purchasing power parity (PPP) in the specific context of middle income countries. To circumvent the low power of traditional stationarity tests (Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests), it performs variance ratio and fractional integration tests in addition to Perron's test that accounts for potential structural changes in real exchange rate processes. Beyond estimating half-life shocks to PPP, this article attempts to explain these estimates using a set of country specific variables as suggested by economic theory. The evidence suggests that reversion to parity tends to be faster in high inflation countries and that productivity improvement leads to a higher level of persistence. Openness to trade tends to reduce the extent of deviations from parity but this result does not appear to be statistically robust. Evidence shows also that deviations are less persistent under a fixed exchange rate regime and under unrestricted capital mobility.