The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study

This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs?. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, improving forecasting performance substantially. The results support the third-generation models of currency crises and can assist policymakers on the design of surveillance strategies tailored for heterogeneous levels of risk tolerance and country specificities.     

Technical Analysis as a Rational Tool of Decision Making for Professional Traders

The psychological background of technical analysis usage is investigated to further explain the popularity and common usage of technical analysis as an investment decision tool. Attitudes toward technical analysis of professional futures market traders and neophyte investors, represented by finance students, were examined. Technical analysis is one of the most popular methods supporting investment decisions and it is much more popular among future market traders than among neophyte investors. The concept of processing information was used to explain this phenomenon. Neophyte investors are more experiential and intuition-driven while using technical analysis models, while futures market traders are more rationally driven. Technical analysis methods help professional traders on futures markets, which are less transparent than regulated stock markets, to process information; those methods are perceived by them as rational, cognitive tools supporting their decision making.     

Complex stylized facts of the Mexican economy: a hirschmanian perspective (to attack the “fear of growing”, more and better)

We elaborate some complex stylized facts related to the Mexican economy. The analyzed period runs from 1960 to 2013 with selected subperiods. Our main findings are: 1) there are involuntary idle capacities in the manufacturing industries; 2) the growth of the Mexican economy is not balanced but unbalanced; 3) there is an inflation-free environment. This fact is consistent with the previous ones; 4) there is a mixed of efficient and inefficient sequences of investment; 5) the stimulus of manufacturing exports on macroeconomic performance has been offset by its imports; 6) the deficits in manufacturing balance and in the current account have been financed without difficulty. Of course, this financing capacity constitutes a second best condition; 7) according to a backward linkages analysis, the towing capacity of manufacturing sector over the Mexican economy would be a larger one if the manufacturing imports penetration had not been so intense since the trade liberalization; and 8) the size of the positive effect of the manufacturing sector on the economy and on the non-manufacturing sectors diminished since the early eighties. Our complex stylized facts highlight the need for an upgrading of the current economic policies.     

我国低效资本市场的负面影响及应对策略

长期以来 ,以证券市场为代表的我国资本市场一直处于低效弱效状态 ,这一市场态势已成为当前提升我国金融体系国际竞争力、深化经济体制、社会保障改革与金融市场应对加入WTO的最大障碍。我们的社会各界特别是政府部门应在借鉴外国高效的资本市场监管基础上 ,从立法与政策上采取得力措施进一步完善市场参与主体约束机制 ,改进入市股权所有制成份结构 ,准许国有法人股入市流通 ,健全市场信息披露制度 ,充分发挥市场价值规律 ,形成内在的价格均衡机制 ,降低平均交易成本 ,增强投融资效率 ,从而提高我国的资本市场效率 ,为提高我国金融体系国际竞争力、深化经济体制、社会保障改革 ,为应对加入WTO后的金融环境扫清障碍。     

安防通信工程对智能化小区建设的价值研究

随着科学技术和通信技术的发展,人们不再满足于传统简单的居住条件和居住功能,开始追求更重视人性化需求的高级住宅,智能化小区从而走进我们的生活.安全性作为智能化小区的首要目标,本文通过对安防通信系统的设置原则、安防通信系统的构成与应用的分析,表明了安防通信工程如何在智能化小区建设中发挥它的巨大价值.     

基于WSR基础设施系统管理研究

基础设施系统是经济社会生态持续发展的基础条件,其宏观管理是一项复杂的系统工程。文章分析了基础设施系统及其管理特性,应用物理-事理-人理（WSR）系统方法,研究构建基础设施系统管理WSR模式,并以上海市基础设施项目为例对其进行了WSR系统分析、系统实施和系统评价等研究。基础设施WSR系统管理模式研究可为基础设施管理提供理论基础和指导原则。     

基于现金流量的企业财务预警系统构建

构建科学完善的财务预警系统,完善以偿债能力为核心的长期财务预警指标体系,从定性、定量、定性与定量相结合构建企业长期财务预警方法,将财务分析方法沃尔比重评分法应用到财务预警领域,使其成为一种定性与定量相结合的财务预警方法。     

Overcoming the barriers to successful implementation of information technology in the U.K. hotel industry

This article examines the organisational barriers to successful implementation of information technology in the hotel industry. These are barriers of will, ability, and finance which block the routes to integration of internal systems.     

论发展中国家复杂产品技术能力发展阶段的划分

在对已有的技术能力发展阶段理论评述的基础上,提出以自主知识产权的产品开发平台作为复杂产品技术能力发展阶段划分的标志,将复杂产品技术能力的发展过程分为"起步-自立追赶-领先"三个阶段,并阐明了这种阶段划分的实践意义。     

公共财政框架下的农村养老保险制度建设研究

农村养老保险规定和完善着公共财政的职能范围;公共财政是农村养老保险的制度依托和物质基础,财政主体的权力结构、制度的包容性、法制化决定着养老保险制度的可持续性发展。我国要实现公共财政与农村养老保险之间的制度性耦合,需要根据农村养老保险的产品属性清晰界定公共财政的职责权限,规范公共财政各主体之间的权力资源配置,吸纳多元主体,共同参与农村养老保险事业的建设。