Combination of long term and short term forecasts, with application to tourism demand forecasting

Forecast combination is a well-established and well-tested approach for improving the forecasting accuracy. One beneficial strategy is to use constituent forecasts that have diverse information. In this paper we consider the idea of diversity being accomplished by using different time aggregations. For example, we could create a yearly time series from a monthly time series and produce forecasts for both, then combine the forecasts. These forecasts would each be tracking the dynamics of different time scales, and would therefore add diverse types of information. A comparison of several forecast combination methods, performed in the context of this setup, shows that this is indeed a beneficial strategy and generally provides a forecasting performance that is better than the performances of the individual forecasts that are combined.As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we consider 33 individual source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel combination strategy also produces a generally improved forecasting accuracy.     

Internet Adoption by Travel Agents: a Case of Egypt

Current collaborative and rapid developments in tourism and information and communication technologies (ICTs) make it difficult to imagine that tourism existed before ICTs. Communication technology is one main reason for the existence of the Internet. Travel agents (TAs) are among service providers whom their Internet adoption could be the best marketing device for their business and a tool for their competitive advantages. The study explores the Internet adoption of the Egyptian TAs, patterns of usage and perceived benefits and barriers of e‐commerce adoption. It is found that the majority of TAs use the Internet to provide TA's information, find out about customers and competitors. Sales and revenue growth, increasing competitive advantages and marketing activities are the agents’ perceived benefits of adopting e‐commerce. Limited resources, unskilled labour, lack of readiness of public infrastructure and customers are among the main obstacles for not adopting the Internet technologies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sectoral FDI,absorptive capacity and economic growth – empirical evidence from Egyptian governorates

Using a novel panel dataset of Egyptian governorates for the period 1992–2007, we investigate the effects of aggregate and sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) on Egypt’s economic growth. We distinguish between FDI in the manufacturing, agriculture and service sector. The similarity of governorates in terms of institutional characteristics like culture, language and legal framework and the consistency of the data collection process enables an effective estimation of the effect of FDI on Egypt’s economic growth. Employing General Methods of Moments (GMM) panel estimations, we find that neither aggregate nor sectoral FDI has an unconditional effect on economic growth. We also reject human capital as a channel of absorptive capacity, but reveal an interesting effect of FDI in the service sector on economic growth in interaction with domestic private investment (DPI). Service FDI promotes economic growth only if the host governorate has a minimum threshold of DPI to absorb foreign knowledge and technology.     

The influence of demographic characteristics of hospitality alumni on entrepreneurship factors in Egypt

The purpose of this article is to study the effect of demographic characteristics of hospitality alumni on entrepreneurship factors, and determine which factors are the most important for the alumni to become entrepreneurs. A questionnaire had been developed and distributed online using Google Forms. Data were collected from 314 hospitality alumni. All the hypotheses have been supported, proving that the investigated demographic characteristics have a significant effect on entrepreneurship factors, particularly motivation, innovation and personal skills. The study’s sample was limited to alumni of faculties of tourism and hotels in governmental universities only. Policy-makers implication, practical implication, and social implication are discussed based on the results of this study. This is one of the first studies in Egypt to study the effect of demographic characteristics of hospitality alumni on entrepreneurship. Moreover, it provides significant findings that can enhance the overall status of entrepreneurship in Egypt’s hospitality industry.     

A budget impact analysis of lenalidomide in multiple myeloma Egyptian patients

Abstract

Introduction

The aim of this study was to estimate the budget impact of lenalidomide and dexamethasone (RD) versus bortezomib, cyclophosphamide and dexamethasone (VCD) in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) and relapsed refractory (RR) MM patients, from the perspective of the Egyptian Ministry of health (MoH).     

Inequality of opportunity in earnings and assets in Egypt

ABSTRACT

By most available measures, the level of inequality in the MENA region, including Egypt, is considered relatively low. This regularity applies to both inequality of outcomes as well as inequality of opportunity. This paper challenges this view. It argues specifically that circumstances beyond the control of individuals account for a larger share of inequality of opportunity when asset distribution is considered rather than the distribution of earnings, essentially because earnings are subject to measurement errors and idiosyncratic shocks. The paper tests this proposition by estimating the extent to which factors related to the circumstances a person is born into contribute to inequality of opportunity in earnings as well as asset ownership. The results show that circumstances account 26–32% of inequality of asset distribution, compared with only 8–10% of inequality of opportunity in earnings. The analysis further shows that the area of birth and fathers education level are the two most important circumstance factors contributing to inequality of opportunity, for both assets and earnings.     

Cost-effectiveness of sorafenib versus best supportive care in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in Egypt

Background: In light of constrained budgets and the need to fund efficient treatment options, this study set out to assess the cost-effectiveness of sorafenib as a first-line treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) compared to best supportive care (BSC) from the military hospital perspective in Egypt.

Methods: A decision analytic Markov model simulated disease progression with clinical parameters and utility values derived from published data. Data on direct medical costs were collected from the local healthcare system or payer. Costs and effects were discounted at 3.5% annually and reported in USD using purchasing power parity adjustments. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results: Mortality occurred less frequently in the sorafenib group (sorafenib group: 99.96%, BSC group: 99.99%). The total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the sorafenib cohort were estimated to be 46.24 compared with 42.27 for the BSC cohort, which resulted in an incremental gain of 3.96 QALYs. The total costs for the sorafenib and BSC cohorts were USD 4,229,940 and USD 3,092,886, respectively (incremental cost = $1,137,054), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD 286,776 per QALY gained for the sorafenib cohort. One-way sensitivity analyses that addressed the uncertainty of the BSC estimates indicated that the progression-free survival for BSC and utility value of progression had the greatest effects on the results.

Conclusion: This study concluded that sorafenib does offer increased survival and quality-of-life at an increased cost but at an ICER that exceeds the nationally accepted cost-effectiveness threshold. The findings support healthcare decision-making of the efficient allocation of healthcare system resources to improve the health of the Egyptian population. Whether sorafenib is cost-effective in specific sub-groups with additional risk factors needs to be addressed in future studies.     

The COVID-19 pandemic: The mitigating role of government and hotel support of hotel employees in Egypt

We investigated the effect of government support of hotels on hotels' employee support (namely, health support, staff retention, and staff training) and consequently on employee job satisfaction and organizational commitment, through the moderating role of perceived overall organizational justice and ethical climate, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a quantitative approach and a framework that drew on the stakeholder and organizational support theories, we collected data from 669 employees in Egyptian hotels through a web-based survey. The results support the proposed framework and show a positive effect of government support through the strengthened perception of perceived overall organizational justice. Surprisingly, findings indicated that the association between job satisfaction and organizational commitment is significantly and negatively influenced by hotel ethical climate. Furthermore, job satisfaction partially mediates the association between hotels’ support of employees and organizational commitment. The study holds important implications for both theory and practice.     

The Egyptian Government's Role in Re-Establishing the Hotel Industry in Cairo (1953–1957)

This article analyzes the role of the Egyptian Government in reviving and improving the Egyptian hotel industry in the revolutionary period. It provides a case study of a country with large political problems, but at the same time pursuing a dream—a dream that was expensive and demanding. Tourism was understood to be an important tool in promoting political stability and providing some legitimacy to a political system opposed by the major powers in the world. This study will examine the Egyptian Government's role in re-establishing the hotel industry as an important economic sector in Egypt during the period from 1953 to 1957, which was considered a critical political period. The year 1953 marked the beginning of the official plans to increase the hotel facilities in Cairo with the establishment of the Tourism Department; and 1957 marked the end of Suez Crisis of 1956. The study utilized unpublished U.S. Department of State documents that show that the hotel industry was used as tool to put pressure on the Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser (1952–1970) to accept U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and was one of the main issues negotiated between the two countries after the Suez Crisis.     

The mystique of macro‐boycotting behaviour: a conceptual framework

In spite of the aim of the World Trade Organization and other international organizations to foster international trade and development by lessening protectionism agendas worldwide, there has been a rise in consumer‐boycotting behaviour at a macro level involving campaigns directed against foreign products from countries embroiled in conflicts in international relations, rather than against products from individual companies perceived to have engaged in a domestic egregious act. While campaigning at this level is becoming a more effective tool for consumer protest, as it negatively affects both the boycotted countries' macroeconomics and companies' micro‐competitiveness, consumer motivation to participate in macro‐level boycotts has so far been overlooked in the boycotting literature. This paper examines consumers' behavioural intentions to participate in macro‐boycotting campaigns within the context of an Arab country, which has recently witnessed a number of campaigns of this nature. Using the theory of planned behaviour, the findings of an exploratory qualitative study of Egyptian consumers offer insights into the motives and barriers to individual macro‐boycott participation. Findings are discussed together with managerial implications.