International Spillovers of Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Evidence from the G7

This paper examines the transmission of GDP growth and GDP growth volatility among the G7 countries over the period 1960Q1 – 2010Q4, using a multivariate GARCH model and volatility impulse response functions (VIRFs) to identify the source, magnitude and the duration of volatility spillovers. Results indicate the presence of positive own-country GDP growth spillovers in each country and cross-country GDP growth spillovers among most of the G7 countries. In addition, the large number of significant own-country output growth volatility spillovers and cross-country output growth volatility spillovers indicates that output growth shocks in most of the G7 countries affect output growth volatility in the other remaining countries. An additional finding is that the duration of output growth volatility spillovers has increased over time from some seven quarters in the 1970s to some ten quarters during the recent crisis, which is likely to be due to the increased integration of goods and financial markets.     

Public trust and corruption perception: disaster relief

Public trust in government and nongovernment organizations is essential to the public’s willingness to donate and to support those organizations. We measure public trust in disaster aid using people’s perception of these organizations’ effectiveness in delivering aid relief to the victims of two recent major earthquakes in China. Based on the survey data collected in 2013 from about 2100 residents in Hong Kong, we document the vulnerability of these residents’ trust perceptions in aid delivery. We find that the sharp decline in trust perception is highly negatively correlated with their perception of corruption of local governments in China.     

Impulse response analysis and Orcutt’s hypothesis in trade: evidence from developing countries

Orcutt’s hypothesis in international economics implies that trade flows respond to exchange rate changes faster than to changes in relative prices. Most previous studies used import and export demand models and tested the hypothesis by imposing and comparing lag lengths on the exchange rate and relative prices. One recent study, however, employed impulse response of trade flows to one SD shock to the nominal exchange rate and one SD shock to relative prices and tested the Orcutt’s hypothesis for several industrial countries. In this article we follow this study and test the hypothesis for six developing countries using impulse response analysis. Like the other study for industrial countries, we do not find much support for the hypothesis.     

Minimising emergency response time of ambulances through pre-positioning in Dhaka city,Bangladesh

This study conducted a large-scale survey in Dhaka, Bangladesh; the survey involved 95 major hospitals, more than 3000 emergency room patients, and 2 of the largest ambulance operators. Currently, most ambulances are parked within the vicinity of hospitals and are either dispatched or fetched by the acquaintances of the patient on demand, resulting in lengthy round trips. Reducing the response time of ambulances would certainly improve the emergency service, and pre-positioning of the ambulances could be a solution to reducing the response time. This study used two approaches to address the problem. First, the location-allocation problem was solved to find the optimal number of ambulance locations by maximising the demand coverage. Second, separate location-allocation for the peak and off-peaks, using K-means clustering, was applied to systematically optimise the ambulance positioning in small clusters near demand points. These approaches could substantially improve the existing emergency response time. Distributing ambulances near demand points yielded greater improvements in response time than when the ambulances are stationed near hospitals.     

心理干预复合咪达唑仑对腔镜手术心理应激反应的影响

探讨心理干预复合咪达唑仑对腹腔镜全宫切除患者术前心理应激反应的影响。择期行腹腔镜全宫切除术患者90例,ASAI或Π级,随机等分为3组：对照组（C组）,不用术前用药;咪达唑仑组（M组）,术前30 min肌注咪达唑仑0.05 mg/kg;心理干预复合咪达唑仑组（PIM组）,按照心理干预方法进行术前访视,术前30 min肌注咪达唑仑0.05 mg/kg。术晨8时及入室后即刻测定3组患者的血清ACTH、Cor、AT-Π与IL-6水平,记录术前一日访视时及入室后即刻的MAP、HR和SpO2值,并行S-AI、AVAT评分。心理干预复合咪达唑仑能明显减轻腹腔镜全宫切除术患者术前的心理负担和焦虑程度,不失为一种调控手术患者术前急性不良心理应激反应的简便易行而又切实有效的方法。     

Emergency preparedness in Romania: Dynamics,shortcomings and policy proposals

Romanians were exposed in the last century to a range of natural or man-made disasters, mainly earthquakes and floods. The transition of the country from a Communist authoritarian pattern of emergency preparedness to a democratically civilian emergency system challenges the assessment of emergency preparedness and adds more complexity in designing a better and efficient system. The aim of this paper is to briefly describe the risks and institutions dealing with disasters, to assess the emergency preparedness, the uses of Knowledge Management Systems and Foresight Methodology approaches and to discover the shortcomings of the Romanian Emergency System. The empirical study designed as a reality check focuses on the perception of the local leaders of the emergency system regarding the most probable risks, and the uses and utility of long term strategic planning and foresight methodologies, using the Delphi technique. Lessons drawn from the Romanian transition could provide an interesting case study for other emerging democracies.     

Using Electronic Response Systems in Economics Classes

College instructors and students participated in a pilot project at the University of Akron to enhance student learning through the use of a common teaching pedagogy, peer instruction. The teaching pedagogy was supported by the use of technology, an electronic personal response system, which recorded student responses. The authors report their experiences in using this technology-enhanced teaching pedagogy and provide another example of an active and collaborative learning tool that instructors can use to move beyond “chalk and talk.” Preliminary survey results from students participating in this pilot project are also reported.     

投资与通货膨胀-紧缩的联系:来自中国的经验证据

基于Toda-Yamamoto长期因果检验程序和广义脉冲反应技术,本文首先研究了全社会实际固定资产投资与零售价格水平变动之间的长期因果及其冲击-动态反应关系,然后进一步考察了货币供给量M1和贸易依存度在促成上述关系中所扮演的角色.其研究结论为:(1)货币供给量M1是唯一的外生变量,其增长不是价格水平变动的直接因,而是通过全社会实际固定资产投资间接地成为价格水平变动的因;(2)贸易依存度和全社会实际固定资产投资之间存在双向因果联系,前者只能通过后者间接地成为价格水平变动的因;(3)中国对外开放既消化又强化了中国生产能力过剩,但消化胜于强化;(4)投资一个单位正向冲击在开始的2-4年左右导致相对温和的通货膨胀,但后五年左右将导致相对严重的通货紧缩.     

论废弃产品问题与生产者责任延伸制度的回应

产品在消费后阶段所凸显的环境污染与资源浪费问题,即废弃产品问题,源于产品的资源性和潜在污染性,自然处置方式的不能和焚烧、填埋处置方式的不当。生产者责任延伸制度概念的提出为废弃产品问题的解决找到了合理的责任承担主体,减轻了政府在此方面的责任,为通过立法建立具体的生产者责任延伸制度提供了雏形。建立生产者责任延伸制度,施行回收处置方式是破解废弃产品问题的制度回应。     

低碳发展视角下交通业能耗效率及与经济增长关系的动态分析——以广东为例

本文从节能减碳的角度分析了广东交通业能源消耗和交通业增加值与全省经济增长、能源消耗总量的相互关系,并与全国数据进行了对比分析,结果发现：（1）交通业增加值对广东经济增长的直接贡献不明显;（2）交通业能源消耗量变动是全省能源消耗总量变动的单向格兰杰原因,说明交通业能耗量在全省能源消耗总量中占据重要地位,预示广东交通业节能降耗的空间很大、任务很重;（3）能源消耗量增加并不必然导致广东经济增长;（4）广东交通业的单位增加值能耗高于全省单位GDP能耗平均水平,而且远超过全国交通业的平均能耗水平,高能耗特征依旧严重;（5）广东的交通业增加值、交通业能耗、全省GDP和全省能耗总量的互动关系与全国的表现略微不同,原因可能是由于地区交通业增加值统计方法的缺陷造成。