基于需求冲击分析的产业集群治理机制

本文立足于对产业集群组织特性的再认识,分析了产业集群与网络组织的相互关系,指出产业集群中的核心组织类型是应对需求冲击的实体企业和虚拟企业,并通过对需求冲击的分析,重新划分了产业集群的类型,提出了产业集群治理机制的新思路,从而解决了经典公司治理理论对于产业集群治理研究的适用性问题.     

人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响及政策挑战——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

人工智能的发展是生产力进步的表现,但广泛使用人工智能技术的经济效应尚待深入研究。基于人工智能对劳动的替代作用,将人工智能投资引入动态随机一般均衡模型,通过比较静态分析和短期动态分析考察人工智能发展对通胀动态的影响。稳态分析表明：人工智能投资效率提高和使用范围扩大均会提升劳动生产率进而提高产出水平,但对长期或趋势通胀没有影响;在人工智能发展初级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资下降,而在相对高级阶段人工智能的发展会引起实际工资上升。短期动态分析显示：人工智能发展水平的提高,无论是投资效率的提高还是使用范围的扩大,都会导致通胀及实际边际成本对偏好冲击和技术冲击等外生冲击的反应变弱。人工智能的发展会使通胀动态与实际经济活动变化间的联系减弱,其原因是人工智能对劳动的替代作用使工资调整不再是应对外生冲击的必然选择,进而改变了外生冲击通过影响工资来影响通胀的传导机制。因此,发展人工智能在促进生产率提升和产出增长的同时,还会改变宏观经济变量间的传导机制,进而对通胀等政策调控目标变量的准确预测以及政策调整和实施的有效性带来新的挑战,也为金融理论研究提出新的课题。     

基于调控方向差异的货币政策区域效应研究

实证研究结论表明:我国货币政策的作用真实表现为正向或负向货币供给冲击;正向或负向货币供给冲击对我国东部地区、东北地区、西部地区和中部地区的影响是不一样的,即存在紧缩性与扩张性货币政策区域效应;我国货币供给冲击是东部地区、东北地区和西部地区经济增长率的Granger原因,不是中部地区经济增长率的Granger原因;我国紧缩性与扩张性货币政策区域效应主要是与不同地区金融机构分布和货币政策传导渠道的不同有关。     

盈利能力、环境执法与环保法律实施的股价冲击——基于新《环境保护法》出台的事件研究

基于合规成本理论,围绕新《环境保护法》（以下简称“新法”）的出台,采用沪深两市A股重污染行业上市公司的相关数据,运用事件研究法和多元截面回归实证考察了“史上最严环保法”的股价冲击及其影响因素。实证发现：（1）“新法”颁布和实施均造成了显著的股价冲击;（2）“新法”颁布事件窗口,上市公司的盈利能力加剧了股价冲击,上市公司外部的环境执法力度缓解了股价冲击;（3）“新法”实施事件窗口,盈利能力缓解了股价冲击,环境执法力度与股价冲击没有显著的相关关系。研究表明,“新法”颁布表现出政策冲击效应,而“新法”实施表现出信息发现效应。研究结论有助于理解投资者的行为特征、决策的过程及影响机制。     

Risk‐Coping Measures against Health Shocks during the Process of Penetration of Health Insurance in Vietnam

Does the recent introduction of public health insurance influence households' risk‐coping measures in developing countries? This study investigates risk‐coping measures for health shocks using a Living Standard Measurement Survey in Vietnam where universal health coverage is aimed to be achieved. The estimated results suggest that precautionary savings are the main form of assets in poor households. Health insurance seems to be used by people in poor health, which indicates that the problem of adverse selection exits. Importantly, get well gifts in the form of money play a significant role in helping households cope with health shocks. A traditional informal insurance system still exists in close Vietnamese communities.     

Optimal adaptation strategies to face shocks on groundwater resources

We consider an exogenous and reversible shock to a groundwater resource, namely a decrease in the recharge rate of the aquifer. We compare optimal extraction paths and the social costs of optimal adaptation in two cases: under certainty, i.e. when the date of occurrence of the shock is known, and under uncertainty, when the date of occurrence of the shock is a random variable. We show that an increase in uncertainty leads to a decrease in precautionary behavior in the short run and to an increase in precautionary behavior in the long run. We apply our model to the particular case of the Western la Mancha aquifer in Spain. We show that, in this context, it is advantageous for the water agency to acquire information on the date of the shock, especially for high-intensity and intermediate-risk events.     

If you,tourist, behave irrationally,I’ll find you!

When departures from rational behavior can potentially be expected, modeling should allow for their identification and their quantification. In this regard, prices in tourism might have effects that may not be as apparent as economic theory predicts. This article incorporates the sticker shock formulation into the mixed logit model without imposing consistency with consumer theory to accommodate any possible positive or negative price effects. By allowing the parameters of “price” and “sticker shock term” to take any value – negative or positive – we detect abnormal behaviors in the tourist demand: not only is the negative relationship between price and demand inverted for some people but also some tourists might be willing to accept higher-than-expected prices. The “non-well-behaved” groups' shares are estimated.     

Diversification and performance: evidence from East Asian firms

We examine the impact of diversification on performance for firms operating in different institutional environments during a relatively stable period and during a major economy‐wide shock. We locate our study in six Asian countries at different levels of institutional development. Results indicate that diversification negatively impacts performance in more developed institutional environments while improving performance only in the least developed environments. Even in the least developed institutional environments, diversification offers limited benefits when an economy‐wide shock strikes. Though successful diversifiers are sometimes affiliated with business groups, diversification is associated with poorer performance for both affiliated firms and independent firms. In sum, we find that the outcomes of diversification are influenced by institutional environments, economic stability and affiliation with business groups. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are property rights enough?Re‐evaluating a big‐bang claim1

We investigate the claim made by proponents of the big‐bang strategy that the establishment of property rights in an economy in transition creates its own demand for the enforcement of laws to protect those rights. Our model contains a government engaging in activities to accomplish objectives that depend on public support for the enforcement of the rule of law and agents who interpret the level of activities of the government as indications of the government's intent to enforce the rule of law. Agents, using the level of government activities as an input to their decisions, choose whether to support the government's objectives. We establish conditions under which the level of activities chosen by the government maximizes its benefits, and simultaneously induces the constituency to support enforcement of the rule of law. These conditions provide a basis for the argument for the implementation of the big‐bang policy. When these conditions do not hold, however, we show that the level of activities that maximizes the government's benefits may have only a minor impact on support for the enforcement of the rule of law. Two characteristics play an important role in these conditions: the initial level of crime and the types of activities the government chooses to undertake. We present examples showing that the initial level of crime has the more dramatic effect on subsequent support for the rule of law.