The effects of oil price shocks on expenditure category CPI

In this study, we apply a two-block structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model proposed by Kilian and Park (2009) in order to investigate the dynamic effects of changes in oil price on the expenditure category consumer price index (CPI) in the United States and Japan. Our results confirm that each expenditure category price index responded very differently to the same structural shock, and that whether changes in oil price function as a positive stimulus or a negative shock for the individual expenditure category prices also depends on the kind of underlying shock that drives the changes in oil price. Finally, our results also reveal that the manner in which changes in oil price affect each expenditure category price differs between the United States and Japan and these detailed-level differences may lead to aggregate-level differences in the price response of both countries to changes in oil price.     

The cyclicality of bank regulation in a general economic framework

This article utilizes a representative agent model to address how the regulation policies for banks should respond to the general economic condition. With the consideration of a self-fulfilling deposit insurance facility with sufficient bank reserve to meet the expected need of liquidity shock, our model suggests a counter-cyclical capital adequacy requirement in a competitive loan market. The exception might occur when the moral hazard problem becomes very unwieldy and the representative individual is rather risk averse. With regard to the closure policy, we find that it is closely related to the individual’s degree of risk aversion. A counter-cyclical closure policy is recommended when the individual is highly risk averse. Otherwise, a pro-cyclical closure policy is preferred.     

Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions in China: An Industry Panel Study, 1991–2005

Employing a panel database, this article investigates empirically the behaviour, at an industry level, of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the People's Republic of China for the period 1991–2005. The study reports that many of the cross-border M&As over the past decades in China have been driven by broad fundamental factors, such as industry size and profitability. Moreover, technological intensity is significantly associated with the level of acquisition activity, indicating the tendency that intangible resources and intellectual capability favour more acquisition into China. It is found that deregulation, as a specific industry shock, affects acquisition activities significantly. The findings, it is concluded, have important managerial and policy implications.     

基于产出冲击的国际储备需求的跨期均衡分析——真实经济的视角

与现有研究相比,文章从真实经济的角度构造了一个简单的基于代表行为人的跨期均衡模型,探讨基于产出冲击和消费平滑的主动性储备需求的决定。研究表明:主动性储备需求与产出冲击发生的概率、产出冲击大小、代表行为人的相对风险厌恶系数以及代表行为人的主观贴现率呈正向关系,与经济增长速度呈反向关系,而与储备资产的相对价格呈现出非线性的关系。通过数值模拟发现,我国主动性储备约占2007年GDP的6%(相当于我国2007年底国际储备的12%),说明我国近年来增加的国际储备存在较大的被动持有部分,目前的国际储备持有额已经从一定程度上脱离了实体经济的基本需求。因此,除紧缩的货币政策外,我国政府还需要进一步运用汇率政策、贸易政策以及其他干预政策直接降低被动国际储备额。     

股权分置改革对股票市场吸收冲击能力的影响分析

根据经济学理论,股权分置改革最主要的意义在于解决影响中国股市发展的委托一代理问题。从改革后市场的反应看,2005年开始的股权分置改革较为成功地解决了这一问题。如此,改革后市场的运作应该比之前更加规范和理性,消化冲击能力更强。然而运用GARCH模型对此进行分析,得到的实证结果与提出的观点却相反。最后,对此现象进行了分析。     

全球价值链与发展中国家产业集群外生风险

本文从全球价值链(GVC)的视角研究发展中国家产业集群的外生风险问题,分别从价值链的治理机制、产品附加值的分布及发展中国家产业集群在GVC中的分工地位等方面构建产业集群的风险分析框架,对GVC分工可能给发展中国家产业集群带来的风险因素及其防范措施进行了探索,以期为发展中国家产业集群的可持续发展提供借鉴。     

Expatriate adjustment from the inside out: an autoethnographic account

This paper identifies some of the dynamics of expatriate adjustment using an autoethnographic account of situations experienced by the first author during her first year of work at a financial services company in Hong Kong. Success in this cross-cultural assignment is dependent on the expatriate's ability to adjust to and master the new culture. Our theoretical analysis of the autoethnographic account suggests that culture shock may be a discontinuous process. Further, the analysis suggests that cultural acceptance can play a critical role in expatriate adjustment.     

总需求和总供给冲击对我国失业和产出动态关系的影响分析

在我国的失业产出关系中,短期内,总供给冲击是产出波动的主要来源,总需求冲击则是失业波动的主要来源,总需求冲击和总供给冲击共同破坏了产出失业之间反向变化关系,但是总需求冲击的破坏作用更多一些。在长期,总需求冲击对产出没有影响,总供给冲击对产出有显著的正的影响,总需求冲击在长期对失业没有影响,但总供给冲击在长期会对失业产生不利影响,即正的供给冲击的累积影响所带来的产出增加在长期使我国的失业率上升。     

The gloom of the COVID-19 shock in the hospitality industry: A study of consumer risk perception and adaptive belief in the dark cloud of a pandemic

As the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads globally, the hospitality industry is at the heart of implementing social distancing, a measure demonstrated to be effective in flattening the epidemic curve. Informed by the perceived risk theory, this research examines how the customer’s perception of the shock of the coronavirus pandemic impacts on their beliefs, and how their beliefs could influence their anticipated emotions (negative and positive) which could affect their future desire towards visiting restaurants. Structural equation modelling was used to understand the research constructs’ associations. This study provides two key suggestions: (i) that the hospitality industry is built on trust from their customers by supporting and resourcing consumers’ self-protection behaviour and adoptive belief, and (ii) that the economic influence and the continuous uncertainty and transformation of the restaurant business need the enhancement of localisation strategies, practices and performance.     

Foreign output shock in small open economies: A welfare evaluation of monetary policy regimes

We examine the impact of negative foreign output shocks, which entail negative demand side effects by lowering exports and positive supply side effects by lowering oil prices, on the welfare of non-oil producing, small open economies under five exchange rate and monetary policy regimes. We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with parameter values calibrated for Hong Kong, Israel, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. We find that welfare levels among the five policy regimes depend on the economy's share of oil imports in world oil consumption. Hong Kong, Singapore and Israel, which have smaller shares, maximize welfare under the Taylor rule, which targets both CPI inflation and real output. South Korea, with higher shares, and Taiwan, with more rigid prices, maximize welfare under real output targeting. CPI inflation targeting, nominal output growth targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes generate lower welfare. However, optimal monetary policy, which generates the highest welfare, gives greater weight on real output than CPI inflation.