Past Experiences,Personality Traits,and Risk Aversion: Evidence from Individual Risk Attitudes during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Individuals’ risk attitudes play an important role in economic decision making and policy evaluation, particularly in the midst of unprecedented uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We adopt a multiple-price-list elicitation method with real money incentives to measure precisely individuals’ risk attitudes at different stake levels and the extent to which they are affected by personal and social shocks following the COVID-19 outbreak in China. We find that subjects who had previously experienced negative personal shocks are more risk-averse at medium and large stakes but more risk loving at very small stakes. For our sample, COVID-19 has no significant impact on risk attitudes, as it is more likely to be regarded as a social shock. The result indicates that the impact of COVID-19 on individual risk attitudes is not as influential as expected, unless the individual’s personal life is affected directly.     

Oil price shocks,geopolitical risks,and green bond market dynamics

This research explores the causal relation among oil price, geopolitical risks, and green bond index in the United States from December 2013 to January 2019. Unlike the conventional linear model specification used in earlier works, we evaluate causal relations based on Granger-causality in quantile analysis. Our empirical results reveal unidirectional Granger-causality from geopolitical risk to oil price at the extreme quantiles. We also observe a significant bi-directional causality from oil price to green bond index for the lower quantiles. Findings also reveal causality from geopolitical risk to green bond index in the lower quantiles of the distribution. Therefore, knowledge of these causal relationships can help policy makers to evaluate and implement effective policies to prevent sudden and substantial oil price shocks and geopolitical risk.     

Cross-region risk spillover between the stock and stock index futures markets under exogenous shocks

By integrating the stock and futures markets of mainland China and Hong Kong into the same financial system, we explore the cross-region risk spillovers between the stock market and stock index futures market under the impact of exogenous events. We find evidence of significant risk spillovers between the two stock markets, and confirm that exogenous shocks, including the adjustments of regulatory policies of mainland China and 2019 Hong Kong Protest, can significantly affect the volatility spillover across assets and markets. Our findings can potentially help regulators and investors understand the cross-region risk conduction and assess portfolio risk after exogenous event.     

The effects of market structure characteristics on competitive reaction intensity: A longitudinal analysis

This study explores the effects of market structure characteristics and exogenous market interventions on competitive reaction intensity over time. It is found that moderate growth rate and moderate concentration induce greater competitive reactions. The effect of the exogenous intervention in the industry studied appears to have a dampening impact on competitive responses. Our research inquiry addresses some issues raised on competition, in general, by Weitz (1985) and specifically on competitive responses by Robinson (1988) and Gatignon, Anderson, and Helsen (1989). The authors express their appreciation to Lee Cooper, Imran Currim, Hubert Gatignon, Avijit Ghosh, Jagmohan Singh Raju and Bill Robinson for their helpful comments and to Mark Parry for his computer programming assistance. The authors gratefully acknowledge research support from the College of Business Administration, University of Georgia, and Graduate School of Management, Rutgers University.     

Income Uncertainty and Wealth Accumulation: How Precautionary are Taiwanese Households?*

To assess how recent job loss impacts wealth accumulation of Taiwanese households, the present study investigates the empirical relevance of the precautionary saving motive to explain measures of wealth during the past 2 decades. This study demonstrates that households facing increased transitory shock accumulate increased amounts of financial and housing wealth, whereas permanent shocks cause households to accumulate housing wealth only. Empirical results suggest an important policy implication: households in Taiwan will save less when social insurance policies are effective in reducing future transitory and permanent shocks to household income.     

The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy

This paper analyses interactions between the real exchange rate and business cycles in a small open economy like Norway. Using a structural vector autoregression model, the role of different shocks are analysed, to investigate to what extent the real exchange rate is absorbing shocks, or a source of shocks itself. The results are ambiguous. Output and the real exchange rate are mainly explained by separate shocks, so that relinquishing exchange rate independence should come at little cost. However, the importance of nominal shocks in the business cycle emphasises that stabilisation is possible. Hence, remaining monetary independence may be attractive.     

信贷内生扩张能力、投资外生收益冲击与价格波动——我国投资与通胀关系的一个新的解释视角

本文从一个新的视角--信贷内生扩张能力和投资外生收益冲击,对我国近些年来的投资与通胀的关系进行了解释.具体分析过程是先建立一个信贷内生扩张约束条件下的厂商长期投资动态最优化模型,并给出一个有关投资外生收益对价格影响的命题.在此基础上,我们以中国为对象,对命题成立的三个条件进行了实证检验,并对其中两个关键条件成立的背后动因进行了分析,且给出了长期增长与政策含义.     

Do supply shocks in the audit partner labor market affect auditor choice? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

We examine whether supply shocks in the audit partner labor market induce clients to switch audit partners. We argue that audit partners in their early careers (i.e., junior partners) charge low audit fees to attract clients, which induces client firms to switch from senior partners to junior partners when there are more junior partners available. Utilizing the Big4 localization policy, we find that Big4 clients are more likely to replace senior auditors with junior auditors to cut costs after the policy. Furthermore, the results are mainly driven by clients who are charged high fees. Our empirical evidence enriches the understanding of auditor choice determinants and informs the ongoing debates surrounding new regulations for Big4 firms in China.     

“营改增”的减税效应——基于DSGE模型的分析

在新凯恩斯的分析框架下,根据中国经济的实际发展情况,构建了包括家庭、中间品厂商、最终品厂商、中央银行以及财政部门在内的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型,评估了“营改增”的减税效应。对“营改增”减税效应的评估从两个维度进行：首先,把流转税领域税负减轻作为一个外生冲击,分析了社会总产出、消费水平、政府支出、劳动水平、工资水平、投资和资本存量等宏观经济变量的变动趋势;其次,构建了“营改增”前后两个不同的政策环境,并模拟了投资下降的经济下行冲击,对比分析了减税前后总产出对外生冲击的反应程度。研究发现：“营改增”虽然降低了政府部门的税收收入,但其减税效应能促进产出和消费的增加,激发整个经济的增长潜力;目前的改革力度在应对经济下行压力时尚没有发挥出预期的效果。