货币政策冲击影响利率的国际差异分析

分析美国、日本、英国、中国、巴西、墨西哥、委内瑞拉、印度、菲律宾和南非10个国家国内货币政策冲击和外国货币政策冲击对本国利率的影响,结果表明：本国货币政策冲击对本国利率的影响,一些国家是先正后负,而有的是先负后正,有的则是一直都是正向或者负向的影响;3个发达国家的货币政策冲击对7个发展中国家利率的影响,也与本国货币政策冲击的影响类似,不能找到10个国家共有的特性。     

Cross-region risk spillover between the stock and stock index futures markets under exogenous shocks

By integrating the stock and futures markets of mainland China and Hong Kong into the same financial system, we explore the cross-region risk spillovers between the stock market and stock index futures market under the impact of exogenous events. We find evidence of significant risk spillovers between the two stock markets, and confirm that exogenous shocks, including the adjustments of regulatory policies of mainland China and 2019 Hong Kong Protest, can significantly affect the volatility spillover across assets and markets. Our findings can potentially help regulators and investors understand the cross-region risk conduction and assess portfolio risk after exogenous event.     

战略性新兴产业基地发展模式研究——以资源型城市为例

资源型城市经济增长过度依赖于自然资源,但随着国际竞争格局的急剧变化、生产要素成本迅速上涨和资源环境约束不断加大,粗放型发展模式已经难以为继,必须快速转变经济发展方式.培育战略性新兴产业基地是资源型城市实现成功转型的基础.不同的战略性新兴产业基地发展模式,其适用条件存在着巨大差异,通过对资源型城市特征及其对战略性新兴产业基地发展模式要求的剖析,指出资源型城市应着力发展内生型战略性新兴产业基地,并基于资源型城市实际情况,提出了实现路径与政策建议.     

Reference Dependent Preference and Labor Supply: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the daily labor supply decisions of Hangzhou cabdrivers. We find that Hangzhou cabdrivers’ wage elasticity is significantly positive, their working decisions are largely affected by shift time, and crude proxy variables for income; hours targets can hardly explain their working behavior. Nevertheless, Hangzhou cabdrivers are still affected by reference dependent preference. Using new empirical strategies, we show that cabdrivers are more likely to continue working when wage rates are unexpectedly low and more likely to quit when wage rates are unexpectedly high.     

Oil price shocks,geopolitical risks,and green bond market dynamics

This research explores the causal relation among oil price, geopolitical risks, and green bond index in the United States from December 2013 to January 2019. Unlike the conventional linear model specification used in earlier works, we evaluate causal relations based on Granger-causality in quantile analysis. Our empirical results reveal unidirectional Granger-causality from geopolitical risk to oil price at the extreme quantiles. We also observe a significant bi-directional causality from oil price to green bond index for the lower quantiles. Findings also reveal causality from geopolitical risk to green bond index in the lower quantiles of the distribution. Therefore, knowledge of these causal relationships can help policy makers to evaluate and implement effective policies to prevent sudden and substantial oil price shocks and geopolitical risk.     

Estimating Consumption Responses to Income Shocks of Different Persistence Using Self‐Reported Income Measures

Models of intertemporal consumption choice posit that consumption reacts more strongly to income shocks with persistent effects than to shocks with temporary effects. This prediction is tested using data from the Estonian Household Budget Surveys for 2002–07. Questions in the survey make it possible to distinguish between two income components of different persistence, using the individual households’ subjective income classification. Estimations confirm that households distinguish income components of different persistence and react to these differently; the consumption response to income shocks with persistent effects is significantly higher than the response to shocks with only temporary effects. Further analysis reveals, however, that consumption also reacts to lagged shocks to temporary income even when the households are not liquidity constrained, suggesting that their behavior is not fully consistent with the standard forward‐looking unconstrained consumption models.     

中国通货膨胀的成因与影响因素分析

本文运用VAR模型,实证研究了中国通货膨胀的内外部影响因素。实证结果表明:中国通货膨胀既有内部调整的原因,也有外部冲击的原因,并且有明显的时间特征。国际原油价格和国际食品价格等外部冲击是短期内我国通货膨胀的主要影响因素,而在中长期,内部调整因素是通货膨胀的主要决定因素。同时,本文提出了控制通货膨胀的相关建议。     

扩招给高校师生关系带来的冲击及对策

扩招带来了师资不足,使师生之间距离远、交流少,师生关系趋于淡漠,但学生渴望交流,渴望真知,所以 应采取措施改善师生关系,以形成健康、和谐的师生关系。     

SARS的经济学思考

本文以“非典”疫情对中国经济社会的影响为背景,从经济学的角度进行了深入思考,提出疫情对中国经济的冲击性质上属于短期的需求冲击,不会改变中国经济高速增长的总趋势,同时建议对财政政策进行调整;对农村抗击“非典”的特殊方式进行了经济学分析;对市场经济和政府职能进行了重新审视,提出构筑共同利益制度;在论述危机原理的基础上,提出了强化政府危机管理的一系列建议;探讨了公共物品短缺带来的新矛盾和抗击“非典”对公共物品提供方式的启示。     

中国利率期限结构变动的影响因素分析

为应对全球性的经济衰退,我国在调整经济结构的同时辅以宽松的货币政策稳定经济,仅2009年上半年信贷投放量就高达7．37万亿元人民币,房地产和股票价格大幅攀升,通胀预期日趋明显。在此情形下,评估当前货币政策对于市场利率的短期和长期的效果极为重要。本文通过研究发现,货币冲击能够降低不同期限的基准利率,且利率的期限越短,受货币冲击的影响越显著：预期通胀对于不同期限的影响冲击为正,且利率期限越长,利率受预期通胀的影响越大。