我国企业年金税惠政策的成本和收益精算评估

企业年金个人所得税递延政策于2014年1月1日开始实施,政策调整必然会带来相应的成本和收益。基于我国特殊的人口结构状况,本文通过建立精算模型进行模拟,具体分析税惠政策的实施在未来50年内的成本和收益,并运用成本收益比和覆盖率两个变量进行评价。模拟结果发现：若税惠政策能够促进企业年金发展,使得覆盖率增加,成本收益比会逐渐在16%~17%的水平保持稳定。本文进一步研究了延迟退休政策和死亡率变化对税惠成本和收益的影响。     

中国企业的出口市场选择：事实与解释

本文基于2000~2006年中国海关数据库企业 出口市场对的贸易数据,采用条件Logit模型考察中国企业出口市场选择的空间模式。结果表明,中国企业的出口市场选择受企业以往出口经验的影响,存在明显的路径依赖。企业倾向于选择与老出口市场地理邻近或文化相似的出口市场建立新贸易关系,尤其是与前者。其中,外资企业和加工贸易企业的出口市场选择更加依赖于新老出口市场间的各种相似性关系。这提醒我们,企业应充分利用自身的出口经验,尤其是成功的出口经验在相似出口市场间的溢出效应以加强新市场开拓的针对性和有效性,形成结构合理的贸易网络以稳定出口。     

中国股票市场发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

以金融发展理论为基础,从理论上论述了股票市场发展与经济增长的关系;并将此理论应用于中国股票市场,对中国股票市场发展与中国经济增长的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,我国股票市场发展与经济增长不存在显著的相关性。     

大规模定制下基于交互式遗传算法的谈判模型研究

越来越多的企业已经认识到大规模定制是一种竞争策略,可以给企业带来竞争优势。随着大规模定制程度的提高,企业间对信息交互的及时性、有效性的要求也越来越高,企业迫切需要一种快速高效的谈判解决方案来适应大规模定制的需要。运用交互式遗传算法理论来建立谈判模型,以适应大规模定制的需要。     

货币错配:一种新的测度模型

国际上测度货币错配的指标体系经历过几次演变,但均存在重大缺陷。本文提出一种新的测度模型:综合货币错配绝对量指标(ACMAQ),基本解决了这些缺陷,提高了准确性与合理性。运用ACMAQ测算表明,中国目前面临着巨大的净外币资产型的货币错配,已经带来了巨大损失。从国际比较来看,无论是绝对量还是相对量,均在国际上名列前茅。从部门的交叉数据看,主要集中在公共部门与银行部门。     

Data driven rank test for the change point problem

Data driven test procedure for detection of change is introduced and its properties are studied. The new solution is max-type statistic related to data-driven rank tests for two-sample subproblems. Simulations show that the new test possesses high and stable power. The test is consistent at essentially any alternative. Asymptotic null distribution of the test is derived. The work of the first two authors has been partially supported by the grants GAČR 201/06/0186 and MSM 02160839.     

限价商品住房管理模式思考

近年来,随着我国房地产市场的持续升温,各地的房价涨幅居高不下,已经对城市中低收入居民的基本住房需求造成很大影响.为了缓解供需矛盾,稳定住房价格,中央提出了"双限双竞"的宏观调控措施,各地也纷纷依据精神推出了限价商品住房供应政策.文章主要从限价商品住房管理中存在的主要问题入手,结合国内几个城市的相关政策经验及存在问题,提出对限价商品住房管理模式的几点思考.     

论城市房屋拆迁中物权流转模型的构建及保护对策——兼评《国有土地上房屋征收与拆迁补偿条例》

拆迁问题引发的社会矛盾愈演愈烈,制度设计的缺陷难辞其咎.论文在抽离拆迁行为的基础上,构建公益性房屋拆迁模型与商业性房屋拆迁模型,并以物权的变动为线索,剖析现行拆迁制度,旨在对拆迁立法的完善提出更有针对性的建议,以规范相关物权的归属与保护;并对<国有土地上房屋征收与拆迁补偿条例>(征求意见稿)进行评析.     

Contemporary Extensions of the Rasch Model

This paper will introduce, discuss and illustrate two contemporary extensions of theRasch model: the one parameter logistic model (Verhelst and Glas, 1995) and theMultidimensional Rasch model (Hoijtink et al., 1999). Using data with respect tothe measurement of schizotypy (Vollema and Hoijtink, 2000) the most importantfeatures of both models will be illustrated. For the one parameter logistic modelthese include: a (discrete) discrimination parameter for each item; a test for itembias; and, estimation of the location of a person on the (latent) trait that is beingmeasured. For the multidimensional Rasch model these include: specification ofthe model; and, model selection. All analyses presented in this paper can be executedusing either OPLM (Verhelst et al., 1995), TESTFACT (Wilson et al.,1984) or ConQuest (Wu et al., 1998). At the end of the paper some features ofmodels and software that have not been discussed will be summarized.     

Exploring the development trend of internet finance in China: Perspective from club convergence

We first employ β-conditional convergence and log t regression tests based on nonlinear time-varying factor model and club clustering algorithm to analyze the convergence characteristics of the development level of Internet finance in 335 prefecture-level cities in China. The result of log t regression test illustrates that there is no convergence as a whole in the development level of China's Internet finance. However, seven convergence clubs and a divergent group have been formed, and the development level and growth rate of Internet finance among these convergence clubs have shown obvious differences. Moreover, we also employ the Ordered Probit to explore the formation mechanism of the convergence clubs. The results reveal that the regions with a higher level of economic development, traditional financial development, economic openness and Internet development are more inclined to converge in a club with a higher Internet finance development level. Alternatively, the regions that are interfered with more by the government or that have a lower degree of marketization, tend to converge in a club with a lower level. Finally, according to the conclusions, we propose corresponding policy recommendations for promoting the regional coordinated development of China's Internet finance.