东亚外商直接投资、技术进步与经济均衡增长

本文利用结构关联方法,实证分析1985~2004年东亚吸引外资是否会带来技术进步,并以此推动经济均衡增长。东亚经济均衡增长经历了三次路径转移,技术进步决定经济均衡增长路径的动态调整,但技术进步的作用具有时滞性。东亚需要增强吸收和转换技术的能力。     

对东非地区油气资源形势的认识与思考

东非地区油气资源丰富,潜力巨大但整体勘探程度低。近年来,该地区不断有重大油气发现,勘探活动增加,东非国家也加快了油气对外合作的步伐,制定外资鼓励政策,加快基础设施建设。我国应加强对东非地区油气地质综合研究力度,完善油气投资评价标准和风险管控机制,投资领域兼顾上下游一体化发展,采取多种合作形式,加大对东非地区的油气投资合作力度,将该地区建成我国新的重要境外油气合作区和进口来源地。     

The Middle-Eastern marriage pattern? Malthusian dynamics in nineteenth-century Egypt

Malthus predicted that fertility rises with income and that people regulate fertility via regulating marriage. However, evidence on the Malthusian equilibrium has been mostly confined to Europe and East Asia. We employ Egypt's population censuses of 1848 and 1868 to provide the first evidence on the preindustrial Malthusian dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa. At the aggregate level, we document rural Egyptian women having a high fertility rate that is close to the Western European level, combined with low age at marriage and low celibacy rate, that are closer to the East Asian levels. This resulted in a uniquely high fertility regime that was probably offset by the high child mortality. Next, we provide individual-level evidence on the positive correlation between fertility and income (occupation). We find that the higher fertility of rural white-collar men is attributed to their marriage behaviour, and not to marital fertility. Specifically, white-collar men's higher polygyny explains 45 per cent of their fertility advantage, whereas their higher marriage rate and lower wife's age at marriage explains 55 per cent. Therefore, polygyny was an additional factor that led to a steeper income–fertility curve than in Western Europe by enabling the rural middle class to out-breed the poor.     

Thinking through the meteoric rise of Middle-East carriers from Singapore Airlines' vantage point

The rise of Middle East carriers in the past decade has been nothing less than meteoric. Based on the notion of generic strategy, we analysed the potential for competitors of the leading Middle East carriers to respond in terms of market scope and product characteristics, using Singapore Airlines as a reference. We found that it was generally difficult for Singapore Airlines to compete in terms of market scope, and thus it should concentrate on offering different degrees of differentiation in its products. While the latest small, long-haul aircraft could help increase Singapore Airlines' market scope, this impact would be marginal at best. We compared the product offerings and prices for the Business and Economy cabins, and noted the intensive competitive pressures the leading Middle East carriers exerted on Singapore Airlines. Improving specific product qualities such as guaranteeing a horizontally flat bed in Business and the overall quality in Economy helps competitors command higher prices, while other niches are still possible.     

Employment centers and travel behavior: exploring the work commute of Mumbai’s rapidly motorizing middle class

In the Greater Mumbai Region (GMR), jobs and housing are agglomerating in nodes in the periphery of Mumbai City. However, current transportation investments focus on strengthening connections within Mumbai City, while these outlying nodes have received less attention. As housing and jobs move out, given limited travel choices, the need for mobility nudges many middle class Indian households into owning private vehicles. Using household travel survey data from the GMR, this paper develops an understanding of how worker’s trips are different for those who commute to the city versus the exurbs. Socio-economic and transportation indicators for middle class workers going to the city versus the exurbs show that these populations are quite similar demographically. However, those traveling to the exurbs, on average, tend to be at a socio-economic disadvantage with respect to income, education and out-of-pocket travel burdens. Those traveling to exurban work locations have shorter travel times and trip distances, and make much higher use of walking, biking, rickshaws, and motorized two-wheelers compared to commuters to Mumbai City. Across the GMR, car users travel longer and farther compared to motorized two-wheeler users. On average, traveling by a private vehicle is faster than bus or rickshaw travel revealing advantages of private vehicle use. These mode choices in the middle class have resulted in rapid motorization and negative externalities such as traffic congestion and emissions. Evidence of large increases in motorized two-wheelers and cars in India suggests that these modes will likely keep growing, unless competing efficient travel options are supplied.     

“中等收入陷阱”的国际背景、成因举证与中国对策

中国已步入上中等收入国家行列,但困扰众多发展中国家的中等收入陷阱问题也逐渐凸显。通过深入分析世界各国发展进程中形成中等收入陷阱的普遍现象与中国当前出现的一些特殊表象,探究各国不同的发展类型与体制特征,借鉴各国应对中等收入陷阱的经验教训,可以得出明确的结论:唯有深化体制改革和制度创新,改善制度供求关系和供给质量,加快推进经济发展方式的转变,才能顺利跨越中等收入陷阱,成功地跨入高收入国家的行列。     

东亚股票市场的一体化及其趋势——基于股指趋同性的分析

伴随着国际资金的频繁流动,东亚金融市场成为国际证券投资的主要地区。东亚各国和地区为了使其股票市场健康稳定发展,采取了一系列措施增强其区域内股票市场的一体化程度。本文通过Johansen协整,方差分解等方法,分析了当前东亚股票市场的股票指数与两大国际股票市场(美国和日本)股票指数的趋同性,以此为基础讨论东亚股票市场的全球一体化程度与区域一体化程度。本文研究发现,东亚股票市场的一体化程度不高,但其全球化程度高于其区域化程度。     

东亚货币合作的现状分析及中国的战略选择

经济全球化和区域经济一体化的世界经济趋势对东亚货币合作提出了迫切要求,东亚国家在金融领域暴露出的金融体系脆弱性要求加强东亚货币合作。鉴于亚洲地区政治经化的复杂性和差异性,整个亚洲的金融合作条件远未成熟,但东亚地区的经济往来密切,具备了一定的基础。本文对东亚货币合作的现状和未来可能的路径和前景进行分析,并对中国的参与提出建议。     

Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia

As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within the region are displaying an ever-greater complexity: Though inter-industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra-industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT), is growing in importance.In this paper, we set out to measure and examine vertical intra-industry trade patterns in the East Asian region and compare these with the results of previous studies focusing on the EU, to which such analyses so far have been confined. Based on the supposition that VIIT is closely related to offshore production by multinational enterprises, we then develop a model to capture the main determinants of VIIT that explicitly includes the role of FDI. The model is tested empirically using data from the electrical machinery industry. The findings support our hypothesis, showing that FDI plays a significant role in the rapid increase in VIIT in East Asia seen in recent years. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 468–506.     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.