MULTIPLE-PRIZE CONTESTS – THE OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF PRIZES

Abstract.  Multiple-prize contests are important in various fields of economics ranging from rent seeking over labour economics, patent and R&D races to tendering for (governmental) projects. Hence it is crucial to understand the incentive effects of multiple prizes on effort investment. This survey attempts to outline, compare and evaluate the results from the literature. While a first prize always results in a positive incentive to invest effort, second and later prizes lead to ambiguous effects. Depending on the objective function, the characteristics of the individuals and the type of contest a different prize allocation is optimal.     

Proper scoring rules for general decision models

If a decision maker whose behavior conforms to the max-min expected utility model is faced with a scoring rule for a subjective expected utility decision maker, she will always announce a probability belonging to her set of priors; moreover, for any prior in the set, there is a scoring rule inducing the agent to announce that prior. We also show that on the domain of Choquet expected utility preferences with risk neutral lottery evaluation and totally monotone capacities, proper scoring rules do not exist. This implies the non-existence of proper scoring rules for any larger class of preferences (CEU with convex capacities, multiple priors).     

Online Price Search: Impact of Price Comparison Sites on Offline Price Evaluations

Consumers increasingly rely on Internet price comparison sites (PCS) to gain knowledge about the market. The prices generated by a PCS search can act as contextual reference prices and influence the attractiveness of prices encountered later as consumers shop offline at local stores. This paper demonstrates that both PCS retailer ratings and the shape of the PCS price distribution influence the impact of PCS search results on later price evaluations. A favorable PCS retailer rating increases the perceived validity of the price associated with that retailer, enhancing the impact of that PCS price on offline price evaluations (Study 1). The shape of the PCS price distribution can also influence later price evaluations, however this effect depends on the information provided by the PCS retailer ratings. When PCS retailer ratings are similar, implying similar validity for the associated prices, low PCS prices and those appearing more frequently in the PCS price distribution have more impact (Studies 2 and 3). When PCS retailer ratings are variable (some high and some low), the PCS price distribution effect occurs only when the PCS retailer ratings provide congruent information about price validity — that is, the most frequent price is offered by retailers with more favorable ratings. Study 3 shows that price validity inferences do mediate this result. Finally, we depart from the offline shopping context to show that when consumers choose a retailer directly from the PCS search results, the effect of PCS retailer ratings is stronger for high-priced retailers and for consumers who rely less on the retailer price as a heuristic to infer retailer service level. Based on our findings we offer insights for online and offline retailers when considering strategic responses, such as price matching guarantees.     

The minimum approval mechanism implements the efficient public good allocation theoretically and experimentally

We propose the minimum approval mechanism (MAM) for a standard linear public good environment with two players. Players simultaneously and privately choose their contributions to the public good in the first stage. In the second stage, they simultaneously decide whether to approve the otherʼs choice. Both contribute what they choose in the first stage if both players approve; otherwise, both contribute the minimum of the two choices in the first stage. The MAM implements the Pareto-efficient allocation in multiple solution concepts including backward elimination of weakly dominated strategies (BEWDS), limit logit agent quantal response equilibrium, subgame perfect minimax regret equilibrium, level-k thinking, and diagonalization heuristics. Moreover, the MAM is unique under plausible conditions. Overall, contributions in the MAM experiment averaged 94.9%. Quantifying subjectsʼ responses to the questionnaire reveal heterogeneous reasoning processes and highlight the importance of developing mechanisms that implement the desired social choice outcome in multiple solution concepts.     

Institutional distance among country influences and environmental performance standardization in multinational enterprises

This research compares and contrasts the findings in Aguilera-Caracuel et al. (2013) with the outcomes of applying fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) — a methodological strategy that gathers quantitative and qualitative information to explain complexity at the case level and generality across cases. Using the same sample of 128 multinational enterprises (MNEs) with headquarters and subsidiaries based in the USA, Canada, France, and Spain, we identify a set of relevant configurations of causes and conditions to explain environmental performance standardization. By avoiding separate treatments for each variable, which is typical in multiple regression analysis (MRA), we overcome prior limitations and propose a new way of understanding this phenomenon. In summary, our results significantly reinforce and complement the previous results.     

Are Multiple Directorships Beneficial in East Asia?

We posit that the benefits and costs of multiple directorships are conditional on firm characteristics. We find firm valuation is positively associated with multiple directorships in (i) firms with high advising needs and (ii) firms with high external financing needs. These beneficial effects of multiple directorships are generally stronger in countries with weak shareholder rights and in firms that are widely held. However, when controlling shareholder hold high voting‐rights to cash‐flow rights, multiple directorships reduce firm valuation, especially in countries with weak shareholder rights and in closely held firms. As multiple directorships increases, cash holdings (capital expenditures) contribute less to shareholder value. The negative association between value of cash (capital expenditure) and busy boards is mitigated in firms with (i) high advising needs, (ii) high external financing needs and (iii) less entrenched ownership structures.     

Tourist market segmentation with linear and non-linear techniques

The need for in-depth knowledge of tourist market segments and the need to overcome the limitations of using linear techniques to analyse non-linear relationships requires a re-assessment of generally used approaches such as cluster analysis and multiple linear regression. The objectives of the research are (1) to consider the use of self-organising (SOM) neural networks for segmenting tourist markets and (2) to analyse the predictive ability of backpropagation (BP) neural networks for classifying tourists from follow-up surveys by using the output provided by a SOM neural network. The findings of the SOM neural network modelling indicate three natural clusters. In addition, the predictive ability of the BP neural network model appears to be superior to that of MLR static filter and logistic regression models. The BP neural network model developed for this application appears suitable for deployment (i.e. classification of tourists from follow-up surveys).     

Finite supermodular design with interdependent valuations

This paper studies supermodular mechanism design in environments with arbitrary (finite) type spaces and interdependent valuations. In these environments, the designer may have to use Bayesian equilibrium as a solution concept, because ex-post implementation may not be possible. We propose direct (Bayesian) mechanisms that are robust to certain forms of bounded rationality while controlling for equilibrium multiplicity. In quasi-linear environments with informational and allocative externalities, we show that any Bayesian mechanism that implements a social choice function can be converted into a supermodular mechanism that also implements the original decision rule. The proposed supermodular mechanism can be chosen in a way that minimizes the size of the equilibrium set, and we provide two sets of sufficient conditions to this effect. This is followed by conditions for supermodular implementation in unique equilibrium.     

Using observational analysis of multiple sclerosis relapse to design outcomes-based contracts for disease-modifying drugs: a feasibility assessment

Abstract

Objective:

To assess predictors and costs of multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse, a potential outcome measure in payer-manufacturer risk-sharing agreements for disease-modifying drugs (DMDs).

Methods:

A retrospective cohort analysis of medical/pharmacy claims was used. Study patients had ≥1 DMD (interferon beta, glatiramer, natalizumab) claim, without DMD claims in a 6-month pre-period before DMD initiation; were aged 18–64 years and continuously enrolled from the pre-period through a 24-month post-period; and had ≥2 MS medical claims during the 30-month study period. Post-period relapse cohorts included: (1) severe (hospitalization with MS diagnosis); (2) moderate (outpatient services including intravenous methylprednisolone); and (3) none. Poisson regression modeled severe relapse frequency, logistic regression modeled ≥1 severe relapse, and generalized linear modeling predicted healthcare costs. Tested predictors included demographics, insurance type, index DMD, pre-period health status, and DMD medication possession ratio (MPR).

Results:

Severe relapse was experienced by 14.5% and moderate relapse by 13.8% of 2291 patients. In logistic regression, severe relapse was predicted by plan type; age (odds ratio [OR]?=?1.018, 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?1.005–1.031); pre-period Charlson Comorbidity Index (OR?=?1.307, 95% CI?=?1.166–1.464); pre-period proxy measure indicating impaired activities of daily living (OR?=?1.470, 95% CI?=?1.134–1.905); pre-period MS hospitalization (OR?=?2.174, 95% CI?=?1.537–3.074); and DMD non-adherence (MPR OR?=?0.101, 95% CI?=?0.068–0.151). Poisson regression results were similar. Predicted mean [standard deviation] all-cause healthcare expenditures were tripled for patients with severe compared with moderate relapse ($48,173 [$8665] and $13,334 [$1929], respectively).

Limitations:

Commercially insured patients from a single payer; use may have been inconsistent with approved indications; proxy relapse measure may have misclassified patients.

Conclusions:

Severe MS relapses requiring hospitalization, although affecting less than 15% of patients initiating DMD treatment, are associated with high medical costs. The only actionable predictor of severe relapse identified in observational analysis was MPR, raising questions about the feasibility of using observational data to guide outcomes-based contracting.