我国谷子种植户持续种植意愿的影响因素研究

文章通过对3个省(自治区)、5个市,268户谷子种植户的问卷调查,采用logit模型,使用逐步回归分析的方法,对影响谷子种植户持续种植谷子意愿的因素进行了分析。从户主个人基本情况、农户家庭情况、农户农业生产情况、谷子生产情况等4个方面共选择13项调查内容作为解释变量,以第2年是否持续种植谷子作为被解释变量,逐步回归分析结果表明:种植户种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重、种植户家庭耕地面积、谷子种植补贴通过了显著性检验。种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重与谷子持续种植呈显著负相关,比重越高持续种植意愿越低。谷子产量受自然因素影响大,农户从减小风险的角度出发,收入对种植业越依赖谷子的种植意愿越弱。家庭耕地面积与谷子持续种植呈显著正相关,家庭耕地面积越大,谷子被选择种植的机会也就越大,规模效应越明显,持续种植意愿越强。补贴对持续种植意愿呈显著正相关关系,种植补贴意味着更多的收益,积极性就越高。依据分析结果提出了要进一步提升对种植谷子的重视,加大科研投入力度,做好科技成果的转化与推广工作;要加大谷子种植补贴的力度、范围及内容,在良种、农膜、资金等方面对种植户给予支持与补贴,调动农户谷子种植的积极性;推进土地流转,在农户种植规模扩大过程中提高土地规模效益的政策建议。     

Which consumers are willing to pay for smart car healthcare services? A discrete choice experiment approach

The technology adoption lifecycle model categorizes consumer groups in the new concept products and services market, based on different characteristics and needs, into innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards, in order of adopting new products and services. This study aims to estimate heterogeneous consumer preferences and willingness to pay for a new concept convergence service, the smart car healthcare service, using a choice experiment questionnaire and a hierarchical Bayesian mixed logit. We found that consumers were willing to pay an additional 3000 to 6000 KRW/month (2.65–5.29 USD/month) for a service that measured both physical movement and vital signs compared to either the former or the latter. It was also found that they were willing to pay about 3000 KRW/month (2.65 USD/month) more for a service that provides health condition predictions compared to one that provides only the current health condition. In addition, customers who were young, innovative, and favored the utility of healthcare services showed a lower sensitivity to service fees than those who were not. Thus, they were found to have a greater willingness to pay for advanced smart car healthcare services.     

Investigating cost non-attendance as a driver of inflated welfare estimates in mixed-logit models

Choice models are used by applied economists for many purposes, such as non-market valuation or estimating willingness to pay for novel food and product attributes. Mixed-logit models allow researchers to account for preference heterogeneity and complex decision-making processes when modelling choices. In mixed-logit models, parameters of monetary attributes such as prices typically are assumed to follow a negative lognormal random distribution to ensure that the marginal utility of a price increase is strictly negative. However, this practice can cause means and standard deviations of welfare estimates to ‘explode’ to unfeasibly large levels, as the model assumes there are some marginal utilities of cost approaching zero. This paper examines whether cost non-attendance, which occurs when respondents ignore costs in stated-preference studies, could be a cause of inflated welfare estimates when a lognormal cost parameter is used. A two-class equality-constrained latent-class model is proposed, in which the cost parameter is fixed at zero for a cost non-attender class and is specified as a random lognormal parameter for cost attenders. This proposed model produces mean welfare estimates that are 17 times lower than a mixed-logit model with a lognormal cost parameter, and 10% lower than a model with a non-random cost parameter. These results suggest that cost non-attendance can result in inflated welfare estimates when employing a lognormal cost parameter, and that accounting for cost non-attendance could be a simple, parsimonious solution to this problem.     

Who gets injured at home? Evidence from older people in France

The study analyses unintentional home and leisure injuries (HLIs) for the French senior population using data from the 2012 wave of the French health, health care and insurance survey. The results of our logit models reveal that health status, age, and risky attitudes are the main characteristics associated with HLIs for older people. When the severity of injuries is taken into consideration, the highest exposure to HLIs concerns the oldest seniors, aged 85 years old or older, with deteriorated health. This result is confirmed in the case of severe indoor HLIs, whereas for severe outdoor injuries, the most vulnerable individuals seem to be younger seniors, that is, 75–79 years old. Moreover, our findings suggest that HLIs, and mainly severe home HLIs, generate a short-term influence on a person's health.     

基于面板数据的我国制造业上市公司财务危机预警研究

以制造业上市公司为研究对象,基于Panel logit模型理论,考虑财务比率在时间序列上的趋势性和历史数据对结果的影响,构建了财务危机预警模型,分析了上市公司陷入财务危机的影响因素。实证结果表明:偿债因子、盈利因子、营运因子、资本运用因子和资本结构因子均与上市公司陷入财务危机负相关。     

The use of multinomial choice analysis in international business research

Many strategic decisions made by firms involve a choice among several discrete alternatives. International Business (IB) scholars are often interested in modelling the factors that potentially influence these (multinomial) choices: these factors might include not only characteristics of the firms making the choices but also attributes of the alternative choices. This paper provides a succinct and intuitive introduction to the possible applications of multinomial choice models in IB research. We briefly outline the theory behind discrete choice modelling, and then explain how multinomial choice models may be estimated (including how the datasets need to be formatted) and how the significance of the coefficient estimates as well as the diagnostic statistics may be tested and interpreted.     

实验经济学视角下中国家财险需求不足的实证研究

基于心理学注意衰减模型与内驱力降低理论，使用实验经济学处理效应检验和logit回归方法，探究中国家财险需求不足的问题。结果表明：潜在客户家财险决策以接受相关外部刺激为前提，第一阶段先感知家庭财产风险，第二阶段再评估家财险需求；绝大部分潜在客户难以接受到家财险相关外部刺激是导致保险需求不足的重要原因。鉴于此，可从转变财产险公司营销方式与经营理念、充分履行房地产与物业管理公司自身服务义务、有效发挥政府社会管理职能这三方面着手，将潜在需求逐步转化为家财险保单。     

Public support for economic transition

This paper focuses on the Czech economic transition and aims to identify the determinants of unusually high and long-lasting public support for market reforms. The study is based on a unique combination of statistical analysis of survey data and oral history (interviews with reformers, managers etc.), which has enabled us to depict the views of the general public as well as of many people involved in decision-making processes on both macro and micro levels. These findings allow us to propose recommendations on how to gain and maintain public support for economic reforms. Above all, reformers must utilize the period of euphoria and communicate the individual steps of reform with the public.