Measuring Knowledge Development and Developing Official Statistics for the Information Age

Measuring knowledge development is a new statistical activity that warrants urgent attention in the light of the current Internet explosion. The Internet creates virtual networks by connecting information nodes, knowledge nexus, people and institutions. The Internet has resulted in an unprecedented proliferation of Information, Communication, Knowledge and Entertainment (ICKE), which has in turn brought about structural changes in all aspects of social, economic and political governance. For public policy formulators, including the statistical community, it is imperative that the knowledge development aspect of ICKE be measured. Being abstract, knowledge is difficult to quantify. However, the manifestations of attributes and variables of any knowledge development activity are measurable. The paper outlines a conceptual framework for achieving this. This proposed framework adopts a socio-technological approach, premised on contemporary information and knowledge development as an integral of the people and technology dimensions. To illustrate the workability of the proposed model, the paper identifies some parameters and variables in the current statistical system, and highlights some new data generated via the Internet Subscriber Study and ICT Exposition Visitor Study. All illustrations refer to Malaysian data. Finally, the paper outlines 'way forward' initiatives for establishing a full-fledged set of information and knowledge development indicators.     

A voted based random forests algorithm for smart grid distribution network faults prediction

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we focus on fault prediction in the smart distribution network. modified version of voted random forest algorithm (VRF) is proposed for enhancing the predicting accuracy of the faults. We change the decision process by redesigning the voting algorithm by introducing multiple SVM models for voting model training. Based on the trained models, a simple NSGA algorithm is applied to find the best voting model. Results showed that the new algorithm could improve the accuracy and recall rate of the fault prediction, especially for the recall rate of the negative samples.     

发电机组励磁参数测试及仿真

文章介绍了发电机组励磁参数测试原理,确定了测试步骤,并依托某电厂实体工程,对发电机组励磁参数进行了现场测试,根据AVR和PSS模型进行了仿真计算,将现场测试结果与仿真计算结果进行比较,表明模型具有较高的精度和稳定性。     

The Optimality of Single-group Designs for Certain Mixed Models

In this paper optimal designs for the estimation of the fixed effects (population parameters) in a certain class of mixed models are investigated. Two classes of designs are compared: the class of single-group designs, where all individuals are observed under the same approximate design, and the class of more-group designs with the same mean number of observations per individual as before, where each individual can be observed under a different approximate design. It is shown that any design that is Φ-optimal in the class of single-group designs is also Φ-optimal in the larger class of more-group designs. The considered optimality criteria only have to satisfy mild assumptions, which is eg the case for the D-criterion and all linear criteria.     

Seasonal exponential smoothing with damped trends : An application for production planning

This paper reviews a spreadsheet-based forecasting approach which a process industry manufacturer developed and implemented to link annual corporate forecasts with its manufacturing/distribution operations. First, we consider how this forecasting system supports overall production planning and why it must be compatible with corporate forecasts. We then review the results of substantial testing of variations on the Winters three-parameter exponential smoothing model on 28 actual product family time series. In particular, we evaluate whether the use of damping parameters improves forecast accuracy. The paper concludes that a Winters four-parameter model (i.e. the standard Winters three-parameter model augmented by a fourth parameter to damp the trend) provides the most accurate forecasts of the models evaluated. Our application confirms the fact that there are situations where the use of damped trend parameters in short-run exponential smoothing based forecasting models is beneficial.     

Asset price dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs and local network interactions

In this paper we investigate the effects of network topologies on asset price dynamics. We introduce network communications into a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. The agents may switch between several belief types according to their performance. The performance information is available to the agents only locally through their own experience and the experience of other agents directly connected to them. We model the communications with four commonly considered network topologies: a fully connected network, a regular lattice, a small world, and a random graph. The results show that the network topologies influence asset price dynamics in terms of the regions of stability, amplitudes of fluctuations and statistical properties.     

数控车床对刀操作方法与技巧

随着控制系统性能不断提高,机械结构不断完善,数控车床已成为一种高自动化、高柔性的加工设备,具有以下特点:加工精度高、质量稳定;加工效率高;适应范围广,灵活性好。在其操作过程中对刀操作又是极其关键的步骤,本文重点阐述了在对刀操作中的一些常用方法技巧。     

海洋环境监测高频地波雷达波形参数设计

本文分析了坚持和完善对外开放与“三个代表”的关系，以及如何按“三个代表”要求坚持和完善对外开放的原因和措施。     

Environmental diversity in recreational choice modelling

The accuracy of environmental valuation studies relies, to a great extent, on the suitability of the proxy measures used to capture individuals' preferences. While important advances have been achieved in the last years concerning the characterization of the physical background in which recreational choices are made, Travel Cost Method applications have failed to consider the heterogeneity of landscape and the spatial configuration of land use. This paper presents an empirical application to forest recreation in Mallorca (Spain), implementing a random parameter logit model to evaluate in terms of goodness-of-fit, model predictions and welfare measurements the effects of environmental diversity on the recreational site-choice process.     

Should Reference Alternatives in Pivot Design SC Surveys be Treated Differently?

Analysts are increasingly making use of pivot style Stated Choice (SC) data in the estimation of choice models. These datasets often contain a reference alternative whose attributes remain invariant across replications for the same respondent. This paper presents evidence to suggest that respondents react differently to the attributes of these reference alternatives and those of purely hypothetical alternatives. While some such evidence has been reported in the existing literature, this paper goes further and details a number of different departures from a common treatment of the two types of alternatives, relating both to the observed part of utility and the error term.