Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.     

泡沫经济破灭前后日本银企信用风险管理制度及其功效分析

战后,日本金融体系效仿欧美国家建立起一系列信用风险管理制度。同时,根据市场主导型金融市场的特点,逐步建立起具有自身特点的信用风险管理制度。日本银企信用风险管理制度包括商业银行的内部控制制度、银行风险防御及挽救制度、商业银行外部监管制度。通过对日本银企信用风险管理制度的功效进行剖析,可以看出这一制度存在局限性并与日本的泡沫经济、金融危机、金融效率存在内在关系。     

农村信用社风险及其防范

农村信用社作为农村合作金融的主体,是我国农村金融的主力军和联系农民的金融纽带。本文对我国农村信用社金融风险的表现及成因进行了分析,提出建立适应农村信用社发展的对策建议。     

互助担保基金的创新模式——ESMGF模式、运作机制

中小企业的不断发展,使其对资金的需求也越来越大,仅凭自身积累已远远不能解决问题。然而,由于中小企业自身及金融系统等多方面的原因,融资难的问题日益显现,成为阻碍中小企业发展的主要因素。为解决上述问题,设计了一种以产业集群为单位,由地方政府、协作银行、集群中小企业三方共同出资,共同承担风险,联合再担保机构的互助担保基金创新模式——嵌入再担保的互助担保基金(Embedded Se-curity Mutual Guaranteed Fund,ESMGF)。     

Consumer acceptability and perceptions of maize meal in Giyani,South Africa

This study examined the acceptability and perceptions of traditionally prepared maize meal porridge, cooked from commercial roller-mill white maize meal and hammer-mill white and yellow maize meal (with and without fibre), among female Tsonga consumers in Giyani in Limpopo Province, South Africa. The study used sensory evaluation tests, followed by focus group discussions to gather supportive information about consumer attitudes, perceptions and practices regarding the consumption of maize meal porridge prepared from these maize meal types. Giyani consumers preferred commercial roller-mill white sifted fortified and white super-fortified maize meal, but, contrary to popular belief, were also willing to accept hammer-mill yellow maize meal, mainly for its nutritional value.     

基于超高频数据的日内风险价值度量研究

随着金融市场的快速发展,传统的以日为单位的风险价值（VaR）已无法满足金融风险管理的需求,计算持有期小于1天的日内风险价值（Intraday VaR）显得愈加重要。文中对日内风险价值测度的方法进行了梳理、细化和改进,对测度中细节给予更加充分的考虑,最后结合我国股市特点对日内风险价值测度进行了实证研究。     

Genetically modified organisms and the age of (Un) reason? A critical examination of the rhetoric in the GMO public policy debates in Ghana

Using narrative policy analysis we examined the adversarial rhetoric of claims-makers in their bid to undermine alternative and conflicting accounts of GMOs as environmental and human health risk and to forestall any challenges to the scientific authority of the technological deterministic account of the GMO policy debates in Ghana. The study shows that the GMO discourse was built with the rhetorical frames of smallholder farmer vulnerability and entitlement used in the account it contradicts, thereby legitimating its own appeal for responsive remedies. Civil society claims attacked GMOs as discriminatory and as an environmental and human health risk. Government and scientists engaged in unsympathetic counter rhetorical strategies in hopes of debunking or neutralizing the claim made by civil society. In other words, Government and scientists were denying the claim that GMO was discriminatory and posed significant human health risk, as well as the call to action to do something about GMOs. Civil society adapted the counter rhetoric of insincerity, claiming that scientists had some kind of “hidden agenda” behind their claim, such as eagerness to just earn money from their patents on GMOs. It is imperative that communication on GMOs includes the underlying assumptions, the uncertainties and the probabilities associated with both best and worst case scenarios. This is a necessary condition to minimise misinformation on GMOs but may be insufficient to completely erase conspiracy theories from the minds of the public especially when scientists and government are perceived to be biased towards multinational corporations that are ostensibly preoccupied with making profits.     

Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.     

Public perceptions of future threats to humanity and different societal responses: A cross-national study

There is growing scientific evidence that humanity faces a number of threats that jeopardize its future. Public perceptions of these threats, both their risks and reactions to them, are important in determining how humanity confronts and addresses the threats. This study investigated the perceived probability of threats to humanity and different responses to them (nihilism, fundamentalism and activism), in four Western nations: the US, UK, Canada and Australia. Overall, a majority (54%) rated the risk of our way of life ending within the next 100 years at 50% or greater, and a quarter (24%) rated the risk of humans being wiped out at 50% or greater. The responses were relatively uniform across countries, age groups, gender and education level, although statistically significant differences exist.Almost 80% agreed “we need to transform our worldview and way of life if we are to create a better future for the world” (activism). About a half agreed that “the world’s future looks grim so we have to focus on looking after ourselves and those we love” (nihilism), and over a third that “we are facing a final conflict between good and evil in the world” (fundamentalism). The findings offer insight into the willingness of humanity to respond to the challenges identified by scientists and warrant increased consideration in scientific and political debate.