Business relatedness and performance: a study of managerial perceptions

Understanding of business relatedness and performance effects is the foundation of any diversification decision, but we have limited knowledge of how managers consider relatedness. This study identified relatedness classes and performance effects using perceptual survey data from top industrial executives. Four classes with significant variable differences were found: high, technology, customer, and low relatedness. Technology relatedness had a strong positive performance effect and high relatedness had a negative effect. The findings confirm that perceptions are multidimensional, but may include five key factors rather than the previously identified attribute categories of product–markets, resources, and value chains. Contributions to diversification literature are discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-term interest rates,risk premia and unconventional monetary policy

We study two kinds of unconventional monetary policies: announcements about the future path of the short-term rate and long-term nominal interest rates as operating instruments of monetary policy. We do so in a model where the risk premium on long-term debt is, in part, endogenously determined. We find that both policies are consistent with unique equilibria, that, at the zero lower bound, announcements about the future path of the short-term rate can lower long-term interest rates through their impact both on expectations and on the risk premium and that long-term interest rate rules perform as well as, and at times better than, conventional Taylor rules. With simulations, we show that long-term interest rate rules generate sensible dynamics both when in operation and when expected to be applied.     

汇率不确定性与企业跨境并购

本文立足外部不确定性视角,提出汇率不确定性对企业重要涉外经济行为(跨境并购)影响的实物期权与风险对冲效应。本文以2000～2019年A股上市公司宣告的跨境并购为研究对象,分析发现人民币兑美元名义汇率不确定性显著降低了企业跨境并购的可能性,实物期权效应占主导;人民币名义有效汇率不确定性与企业跨境并购决策正相关,风险对冲效应占主导。横截面检验发现,人民币兑美元名义汇率不确定性对跨境并购的抑制作用在汇率交易风险和折算风险更高以及存在融资约束的企业中更为明显;有效汇率反映一国贸易条件,行业竞争激烈与汇率经济风险更高的企业,在人民币名义有效汇率不确定性加剧时更有可能进行跨境并购。最后,汇率不确定下的企业跨境并购取得了较好的财务绩效(汇率风险约束使企业并购行为更审慎高效),降低了有效汇率风险敞口。本文区分了双边汇率与有效汇率的差异,拓展了汇率波动的经济后果与跨境并购影响因素的研究范畴,为“双循环”下我国推进高质量对外开放与汇率市场化改革、有效引导国际资本流动以及企业在不确定环境下提升并购效率,提供了理论依据。     

Asset price,risk transfer and economic activities: Firm-level evidence from China

The paper investigates the extent of the impact from changes in asset price and risk on corporate investment behaviors as well as the real economy. The results support the unidirectional causality effects from asset price fluctuations on the macro-level. By applying quarterly data of Chinese listed companies, we further find the existence of balance sheet effect on the firm-level, which suggests that the changes in asset prices and risk affect the net asset value, and consequently influence corporate investment decisions. More importantly, the balance sheet effect appears to be much more significant after the implementation of new fair value accounting standards in 2007. The impact on the real economy from asset price risk is found to be more prominent as well.     

基于跳跃-扩散KMV模型的上市公司信用风险评估

本文在传统KMV模型基础上进行改进,引入风险资产价格的跳跃因素,构建跳跃-扩散KMV模型。分别从行业属性、公司属性和公司规模三个角度,对我国126家上市公司的跳跃风险进行估计,并对其信用风险进行度量。在此基础上,以测算的违约距离为被解释变量,以经济周期、跳跃风险及反映企业自身经营情况的财务指标为解释变量,利用固定效应模型实证检验企业信用风险的影响因素。结果表明,使用跳跃-扩散KMV模型度量上市公司信用风险的效果较好,测量结果与我国实际情况较吻合;同时企业的信用风险与其自身的偿债能力和跳跃风险呈显著正相关,而与其盈利能力、成长能力、营运能力及宏观经济状况呈显著负相关。     

Evaluating portfolio Value-at-Risk using semi-parametric GARCH models

In this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for evaluating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio with arbitrary weights. We specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. Examining the within-sample VaRs of a set of given portfolios shows that the semi-parametric model performs uniformly well, while parametric models in several cases have unacceptable failure rates. Interestingly, distributional assumptions appear to have a much larger impact on the performance of the VaR estimates than the particular parametric specification chosen for the GARCH equations.     

Time varying country risk: an assessment of alternative modelling techniques

Three different techniques for the estimation of a time-varying beta are investigated: a bivariate GARCH model, the Schwert and Seguin approach, and the Kalman filter method. These approaches are applied to a set of monthly Morgan Stanley country index data over the period 1970 to 1995 and their relative performances compared. In-sample forecast tests of the performance of each of these methods for generating conditional beta suggest that the GARCH-based estimates of risk generate the lowest forecast error although these are not necessarily significantly less than those generated by the other techniques considered.     

Determinants of smallholder farmers' perceptions of risk in the Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia

This paper reports findings from a study of 178 farm households from two contrasting areas in the Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia. It examines risk perceptions of smallholder farmers under varying contexts. The study utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis. It was hypothesized that human capital and household characteristics and orientation, access to resources, infrastructure, information and environmental factors influence perceptions of risks in different ways. Data reduction for independent variables was done by factor analysis (principal component extraction method). Factor analyses identified factors influencing smallholder farmers' perceptions of sources of risks. Logistic regression analyses were used to study the relationships of identified principal components to perceived frequencies of occurrences and consequences of various sources of risks. Logistic regression analyses revealed that asset endowments, locational settings and livelihood diversification strategies pursued determine smallholders' perceived risks. Key findings from the informal survey point out differentiation in perceptions of causes and sources of risks by different actors.     

Experts' Views on Societal Risk Attention1

The search for a process by which agencies, whether at the national or the local level, might either rank or prioritize disparate risks has been on the minds if not the agenda of policy makers for some decades at least. In the absence of an agreed methodology, risk management practitioners in government, industry, and other walks of life have, through necessity, developed their own. Inspection reveals, however, that many of these are grounded in particular ideologies which may be associated with discrete professional world views or systems of working. It is apparent, however, that even subtle differences in methodologies can generate radically different rankings and, ultimately, actions. Thus, while the ranking of risks as a means of setting goals and prioritizing actions is a crucial activity, the process by which it is conducted may have an overwhelming influence upon the outcome, which in turn might bear little resemblance to the aspirations of stakeholders. It is suggested that more attention needs to be devoted to the assumptions and values inherent in ranking procedures, even those previously regarded as 'objective,' and to the ways in which these, together with artefacts of the ranking procedure itself, may affect outcomes. In the longer term, a shift towards a more holistic prioritization process is seen as highly desirable. Failure to achieve this could mean that neither local nor societal goals are properly accommodated.