Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices

This article analyzes the modelling of risk premia in CO₂ allowances spot and futures prices, valid for compliance under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Similarly to electricity markets, a salient characteristic of CO₂ allowances is that the theory of storage does not hold, as CO₂ allowances only exist on the balance sheets of companies regulated by the scheme. The main result features positive time-varying risk premia in CO₂ spot and futures prices, which are strictly higher for post-2012 contracts (€6–9/ton of CO₂) than for Phase II contracts (€0–6/ton of CO₂). Contrary to Benth et al.'s (2008) for electricity markets, a positive relationship between risk premia and time-to-maturity is found in the EU ETS. As for relative differences between CO₂ futures and spot prices, CO₂ futures traded between + 1% (December 2008 contract) and + 33% (December 2014 contract) above spot prices during February 2008–April 2009. Contrary to Bessembinder and Lemmon (2002) for the electricity market, a positive relationship between risk premia and the variance/skewness of CO₂ spot prices is found. The futures-spot bias to the EU ETS explains around 1–6% of the variance of CO₂ futures premia.     

国家信用风险的传导与影响研究——以欧元区债务危机为例

本文以欧元区债务危机为例研究国家信用风险的传导效应,首先,基于“欧猪五国”相对德国的十年期国债利差数据,分析债务危机在欧元区境内风险传导效应;其次,运用GVAR模型分析世界主要经济体对欧元区冲击的反应,重点分析欧元区GDP冲击对欧元区自身以及贸易关系密切的英国、美国和中国的影响。结果表明:希腊和爱尔兰对各国家信用风险产生的累积影响最为显著,西班牙和意大利较弱;欧元区经济萎缩造成的需求冲击对英国、美国和中国均有显著影响。     

Are more risk averse agents more optimistic? Insights from a rational expectations model

We analyse a model of partially revealing, rational expectations equilibrium with diverse information, endogenous beliefs formation and uncertain distribution of risk aversion. More risk averse agents are then more optimistic. Such a positive correlation is important for collective decision analysis.     

企业并购的财务风险评价研究

首先对企业并购中存在的对目标企业定价、并购融资、并购价值支付及在并购后对于目标企业的财务整合风险等财务风险进行了概述,在此基础上提出了企业并购决策中财务风险评价指标体系,然后构建了企业并购中财务风险评价的二级模糊综合评价模型。最后对运用一案例对财务风险评价模型进行了实证研究,验证了模型的可行性。     

Asset price,risk transfer and economic activities: Firm-level evidence from China

The paper investigates the extent of the impact from changes in asset price and risk on corporate investment behaviors as well as the real economy. The results support the unidirectional causality effects from asset price fluctuations on the macro-level. By applying quarterly data of Chinese listed companies, we further find the existence of balance sheet effect on the firm-level, which suggests that the changes in asset prices and risk affect the net asset value, and consequently influence corporate investment decisions. More importantly, the balance sheet effect appears to be much more significant after the implementation of new fair value accounting standards in 2007. The impact on the real economy from asset price risk is found to be more prominent as well.     

Optimal hedge ratios and alternative hedging strategies in the presence of cointegrated time-varying risks

This paper utilizes the inter-temporal relationship between the FTSE-100 stock index and its futures price level between 1992 and 1999 to examine the characteristics of several minimum variance hedge ratios and the performances of several alternative hedging strategies for dynamic portfolio management in the presence of cointegrated time-varying risks. Earlier studies neglected the importance of cointegration between the two variables which resulted in biased estimates. These studies, in general, also assume that the hedging period is the same as the estimation time interval. This paper also looks at several key issues when the holding period is longer than the estimation period, such as the construction of optimal minimum variance hedge ratios, and the trade-off between transaction costs and risk reduction.     

我国商业银行外部信用风险测度分析

银行作为债权人将资金放贷给企业,企业无法按时偿还本金,由此带来的风险称为信用风险。本文选择了44家配对上市公司,采用KMV模型对上市公司的信用风险进行度量,实证结果显示,KMV模型对于度量上市公司信用状况具有一定的适用性,但如果将KMV模型与PFM模型相结合,KMV模型使用的范围更加广泛。针对外部信用风险产生的原因,本文还给出了减小外部信用风险的建议。     

Ethnic homophily perceptions as an emergent IHRM challenge: evidence from firms operating in Sri Lanka during the ethnic conflict

Ethnic conflict is a defining characteristic of the post-Cold War era and is prevalent particularly in emerging economies, areas of increasing interest to multinational enterprises. Yet little is known about the international human resource management challenges arising from such societal context. Utilizing social identity theory, we propose that ethnic homophily perceptions in the workplace – an employee's assessment that colleagues prefer working with ethnically similar others – is a reflection of the societal context and can be detrimental to the organization if not managed appropriately. We investigate whether contact theory offers insights to manage such perceptions. Drawing on a sample of 550 managers in Sri Lanka during a period of protracted ethnic conflict, we found that employee sensitivity to ethnic conflict in the societal context is positively related to ethnic homophily perceptions in the workplace, and that both ethnic diversity in workgroups and quality of work relationships serve to reduce perceptions of ethnic homophily.     

改革开放以来金融风险的本质特征及防控启示——兼论中国共产党领导下的防控金融风险探索与实践

改革开放以来,立足于"新兴+转轨"的基本经济特征,中国的金融风险既表现出转轨经济条件下特有的风险特征,又表现出新兴市场经济的典型风险特征。中国防范化解金融风险始终与自身经济增长、金融发展之间进行统筹兼顾,先后经历了社会主义市场经济培育探索、快速成长、加速开放以及高质量发展四个阶段。历史地看,各个阶段的防控实践留下重要启示：（1）坚守底线、理性务实的风险思维是防控金融风险的重要法宝;（2）维护中央金融集权主导与地方适当分权的辩证统一;（3）尊重实体经济以及金融业的客观发展规律,严防脱实向虚;（4）金融监管体系须在平衡金融创新与金融风险之间与时俱进;（5）坚持中国共产党的全面领导,不断推进马克思主义的中国化时代化,是实现上述四点的根本政治保障。     

基于贝叶斯网络的我国商业银行声誉风险度量研究

根据我国商业银行声誉风险分布情况,构建商业银行声誉风险评价体系。运用贝叶斯网络模型,考量国有商业银行2007~2012年间的485组声誉损失数据,得出声誉风险的超极限矩阵。实证表明,企业感召力缺乏、产品和服务缺陷、银行风险控制不足等成为中国商业银行声誉风险的主要因素,银行应有针对性地对其进行有效规避和分散。