Size and value effects in high-tech industries: The role of R&D investment

We use monthly US stock data over 55 years from 1962 to 2017 to show that the R&D intensity at firms adds another important dimension to the size and value effects in describing stock returns, especially for small high-tech firms. A trading strategy that double sorts on R&D intensity and size or book-to-market ratio outperforms a simple small-minus-big (SMB) or high-minus-low (HML) strategy in producing higher and more significant portfolio returns. The most profitable schemes involve triple sorts by size, BM, and R&D intensity: the payoffs of buying high-BM/R&D-Active portfolio and selling low-BM/R&D-Inactive portfolio in the small-size/high-tech group and that of buying high-tech/high-BM and selling low-tech/low-BM in the small-size/R&D-active group generate a return of more than 2% on a monthly basis. Our results are robust to alternative classification method of assigning stocks in portfolios.     

中国商业银行汇率风险管理的对策建议——美国、香港等地汇率风险管理经验的启示

2005年7月21日起，人民币开始实行有管理的浮动汇率制度。中国商业银行将面对什么样的汇率风险，如何进行汇率风险管理成为当前的一个重要问题。本文分析了中国商业银行面临的汇率风险、商业银行汇率风险管理现状，在借鉴外资银行实践经验的基础上，提出提高国内商业银行汇率风险管理水平的政策。     

Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors

This paper presents a dynamic portfolio credit model following the regulatory framework, using macroeconomic and latent risk factors to predict the aggregate loan portfolio loss in a banking system. The latent risk factors have three levels: global across the entire banking system, parent-sectoral for the intermediate loan sectors and sector-specific for the individual loan sectors. The aggregate credit loss distribution of the banking system over a risk horizon is generated by Monte Carlo simulation, and a quantile estimator is used to produce the aggregate risk measure and economic capital. The risk contributions of the individual sectors and risk factors are measured by combining the Hoeffding decomposition with the Euler capital allocation rule. For the U.S. banking system, we find that the real GDP growth rate, the global and sector-wide frailty risk factors and their spillovers significantly affect loan defaults, and the impacts of the frailty factors are not only economy-wide but also sector-specific. We also find that the frailty risk factors make more significant risk contributions to the aggregate portfolio risk than the macroeconomic factors, while the macroeconomic factors help to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk forecasts.     

新巴塞尔资本协议下操作风险资本计算方法剖析

为了使监管资本对操作风险具有更高的敏感性,对商业银行资本金进行精确计量并使之与银行潜在经济风险相匹配是新巴塞尔资本协议的主旨。本文对新协议中关于操作风险资本金计算的理论依据和计算方法进行了剖析,有助于建立我国商业银行内部风险管理模型。近年来我国商业银行业也开始了关于操作风险的量化和管理,2004年中国工商银行首次出台了操作风险管理框架,这标志着我国商业银行操作风险管理进入实质阶段。     

Scaledt分布、杠杆效应和上证综指的VaR风险

与正态分布相比,上证指数收益率的经验分布具有尖峰厚尾特征,但用Scaled t-分布比正态分布可以更好地拟合上证指数收益率的经验分布。本文以Scaled t-分布假设下的GJR模型为基础,测量了上证指数收益率波动性的杠杆效应,即信息对波动性的不对称影响：并根据GJR模型应用Monte Carlo模拟方法,测定上证指数日收益率和持有期收益率的风险价值（VaR）。根据GJR模型提供的结果,上证指数30天、60天和90天持有期收益率的风险值分别为12．1％、17．8％、22．0％。用GJR模型比均值-方差模型和历史模拟方法计算的5％显著性水平VaR值更接近实际收益率。     

国有商业银行经营风险及内控机制

经营风险问题一直困扰着商业银行的经营者和管理者。尤其是国有商业银行,经营风险激增给其带来了巨大的经济损失,导致经营陷入困境以及银行信誉受到严重影响。这反映出作为预跨和控制商业银行的内控机制存在着严重的问题或缺陷。为此,本文从商业银行的经营风险与内控机制的关系入手,探讨通过建立和完善内控机制来预防和减少经营风险损失。     

竞争性战略联盟中合作绩效的影响因素分析

提出了风险、信任、合作模式和联盟绩效之间的概念模型,采用方差分析的方法,对概念模型包含的各种假设做实证分析。研究结果表明:我国的竞争对手之间的合作是非理性的,信任不是建立在合作绩效的基础上,合作中往往不考虑风险对绩效的影响,只重视股权合作的方式。     

劳动力老龄化及其认知对农业生产性服务外包采纳行为的影响

目的 根据冀鲁豫粮食主产区的实地调研数据,基于认知行为理论的基本内容,研究老龄化背景下农户的服务外包采纳行为是否受到其对耕地的生计保障、情感寄托和财产享益功能认知的影响。方法 文章运用Ordered probit模型、二元Probit模型以及中介效应模型分析其影响机制。结果 （1）农业劳动力老龄化对服务外包采纳行为呈显著负向影响,已有大多研究结论的正向影响实际上是农户主观耕地功能认知 “遮掩效应”的表现;（2）60岁以上农户的服务外包采纳行为受到其对耕地生计保障和财产享益功能认知的中介作用影响;（3）65岁以上农户的服务外包采纳行为受到其对耕地财产享益功能认知的中介作用影响。结论 为有效提升老龄化背景下粮食主产区生产性服务外包采纳率,首先,政府部门应该增强服务外包可达性、信息服务及资金支持范围。其次,吸引年轻劳动力回流农业,改善人力资本结构。最后,加大对农村经济的扶持力度,引导和鼓励农村老龄农户发展特色农业、绿色农业等高附加值农业产业,为老龄农户提供更多培训机会,降低老龄农户对耕地生计保障和财产享益功能的认知水平。     

Buyer perceptions of supply disruption risk: A behavioral view and empirical assessment

As supply chains become more complex, firms face increasing risks of supply disruptions. The process through which buyers make decisions in the face of these risks, however, has not been explored. Despite research highlighting the importance of behavioral approaches to risk, there is limited research that applies these views of risk in the supply chain literature. This paper addresses this gap by drawing on behavioral risk theory to investigate the causal relationships amongst situation, representations of risk, and decision-making within the purchasing domain. We operationalize and explore the relationship between three representations of supply disruption risk: magnitude of supply disruption, probability of supply disruption, and overall supply disruption risk. Additionally, we draw on exchange theories to identify product and market factors that impact buyers’ perceptions of the probability and magnitude of supply disruption. Finally, we look at how representations of risk affect the decision to seek alternative sources of supply. We test our model using data collected from 223 purchasing managers and buyers of direct materials. Our results show that both the probability and the magnitude of supply disruption are important to buyers’ overall perceptions of supply disruption risk. We also find that product and market situational factors impact perceptions of risk, but they are best understood through their impact on perceptions of probability and magnitude. Finally, we find that decisions are based on assessments of overall risk. These findings provide insight into the decision-making process and show that all three representations of risk are necessary for fully understanding risky decision-making with respect to supply disruptions.     

Risk aversion,public disclosure,and partially informed outsiders

In this paper, we examine the impact of public disclosure and partially informed outsiders on a risk-averse insider’s trading behavior, market efficiency, and market depth. In our model, under disclosure requirements, except for the final auction, market depth is the same at every auction. When informed outsiders are risk-neutral, in contrast to the case of a risk-averse insider with no informed outsiders, the insider is more concerned about the uncertainty about future price risk. When the number of informed outsiders increases, market liquidity improves, and the insider increases the variance of her random component to conceal her trading strategy. However, since the insider is relatively more risk-averse, she pays less attention to doing this on her own. Besides, the order flow provided by informed outsiders and randomly added by the insider injects additional liquidity into the market. When informed outsiders are risk-averse, compared to risk-neutral informed outsiders, an insider is most concerned about trading risks brought by informed outsiders at the beginning of trading. Furthermore, whether the trader is an insider or informed outsider, the more risk-averse trader has lower expected profits. Moreover, outsiders’ greater risk aversion leads to a smaller market depth.