The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

浅谈山地建厂总图设计中的几个问题

文章结合山地建厂设计工作实例，就总平面布置、竖向设计、土石方工程、物料运输、防洪、安全防护等问题进行分析，并提出了相应的技术方法。     

构建基于逻辑模型的财政支出绩效评价体系——以农业财政支出为例

现有评价指标较少对财政支出的整个过程进行评价,难以全面反映财政支出的真实绩效。将逻辑模型引入指标设计中,从“投入—产出—中短期结果—长期结果”四个层面构建财政支出绩效评价指标体系,可更好地体现绩效评价的经济、效率和效果原则。     

从竞争战略角度评估城市商业银行价值

由于商业银行是一个经营货币的服务型企业,其盈利模式、资产负债结构与生产型企业及非银行金融企业有很大不同,而且银行的行业性质非常特殊。因此,从战略角度评估银行价值是非常必要的。     

新疆城镇居民国内潜在出游力的地区差异分析

本文在分析潜在出游力的影响因素基础上,用主成份分析法简化影响因素的结构,得出了收入水平、交通通讯水平与消费水平是影响各地区城镇居民潜在出游力的基本因素。并通过综合评价法来描述新疆各地州市城镇居民潜在出游力的差异状况,从而为旅游企业开展客源市场提供可靠依据。     

A model to evaluate the effectiveness of enterprise training programmes

This paper describes a model developed to measure customer satisfaction with enterprise training programmes. Based on developments in customer satisfaction and quality measurement, it is proposed as an alternative to the training evaluation model developed by Kirkpatrick (1959). A single indicator, a Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI), quantifies the level of satisfaction with each training programme. The model also measures the individual parameters that contribute to the CSI, as well as their relative importance. It facilitates a benchmarking process regarding these parameters and between training programmes. The development process of the model is described, as is its use in practice.     

浅谈水利建筑工程的现场管理

建筑施工现场管理离不开过程、质量、安全的管理。制订高标准的目标，采取切实可行的管理措施，其目的是有效地完成施工项目的合同承包目标，使企业取得相应的经济效益。     

浅论电力工程施工安全管理工作的方法

电力工程施工安全管理关系到电力施工企业的生存发展，必须给予高度的重视。文章分析了施工现场安全管理的重要性，并就目前电力工程施工现场的安全管理现状，结合实际工程,提出了加强电力工程施工安全管理工作的几点建议。     

日本独立行政法人制度与企业制度比较研究

本文就日本的独立行政法人制度与企业制度,从运行机制、资金来源与管理、人事制度以及评价机制等几个方面进行了探讨。     

中原经济区城乡协调发展评价

统筹协调的城乡发展格局是中原经济区发展战略的内在要求。本文在分析城乡协调发展内涵的基础上,构建了城乡协调发展评价指标体系,并利用相关省份2012年统计年鉴数据对中原经济区各地市城乡协调发展水平进行评价和空间格局分析。结果显示:(1)中原经济区城乡协调发展空间上呈现明显的"块状"分布格局,北方城乡协调水平总体好于南方;(2)不同因子对地级市层次城乡协调发展影响程度与各地级市之间按各主因子的差异程度不具备一致性;(3)县域经济发展是推动城乡系统向高水平城乡协调关系演进的重要动力。