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91.
Jonathan A. Batten Karren Lee‐Hwei Khaw Martin R. Young 《Journal of economic surveys》2014,28(5):775-803
Convertible bonds are an important segment of the corporate bond market, with worldwide outstandings approaching US$235 billion. Simple pricing models value a convertible bond as being equivalent to a straight bond with an embedded option that enables the bond holder to convert to a specific amount of common stock. The straight bond is subject to both interest rate and credit risk, whereas the option to convert is dependent on the underlying stock price, which exposes the convertible bond holder to equity risk. The complexity of these features means that convertible bonds tend to be treated casually in major derivatives and corporate finance textbooks. This paper presents a survey of the theoretical and empirical aspects of convertible bond pricing. The limitations of these studies are highlighted to identify those areas of research that may improve the valuation process and facilitate the application of these securities for corporate financing. 相似文献
92.
影响我国学生英语写作水平的一个主要原因是学生不能得体正确地运用语篇衔接手段,这主要源于英汉在语篇衔接手段方面的差异.本文探讨了英语写作中常用的语篇衔接手段,并提出了运用语篇分析法培养学生有效运用语篇衔接手段的能力,从而提高学生的写作水平. 相似文献
93.
We construct a DSGE-VAR model for competing head to head with the long history of published forecasts of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We also construct a Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior for forecast comparison. The DSGE-VAR model combines a structural DSGE model with a statistical VAR model based on the in-sample fit over the majority of New Zealand’s inflation-targeting period. We evaluate the real-time out-of-sample forecasting performance of the DSGE-VAR model, and show that the forecasts from the DSGE-VAR are competitive with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published, judgmentally-adjusted forecasts. The Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior also provides a competitive forecasting performance, and generally, with a few exceptions, out-performs both the DSGE-VAR and the Reserve Bank’s own forecasts. 相似文献
94.
由于电网的复杂性和多变性,导致电网故障中存在信息不确定性问题,这就需要依靠贝叶斯网络和DS证据理论的自动生成方法。文章主要描述了这两种方法的原理,讨论了贝叶斯网络和DS证据理论在电网故障模型领域应用的可能方式和情况,并运用一些实例证明了这种方法的可靠性。 相似文献
95.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2014,30(4):981-995
This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets and Wouters (2012), estimated on euro area data. It investigates the extent to which the inclusion of forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. We consider two approaches for conditioning on such information. Under the “noise” approach, the mean professional forecasts are assumed to be noisy indicators of the rational expectations forecasts implied by the DSGE model. Under the “news” approach, it is assumed that the forecasts reveal the presence of expected future structural shocks in line with those estimated in the past. The forecasts of the DSGE model are compared with those from a Bayesian VAR model, an AR(1) model, a sample mean and a random walk. 相似文献
96.
This paper studies an alternative quasi likelihood approach under possible model misspecification. We derive a filtered likelihood from a given quasi likelihood (QL), called a limited information quasi likelihood (LI-QL), that contains relevant but limited information on the data generation process. Our LI-QL approach, in one hand, extends robustness of the QL approach to inference problems for which the existing approach does not apply. Our study in this paper, on the other hand, builds a bridge between the classical and Bayesian approaches for statistical inference under possible model misspecification. We can establish a large sample correspondence between the classical QL approach and our LI-QL based Bayesian approach. An interesting finding is that the asymptotic distribution of an LI-QL based posterior and that of the corresponding quasi maximum likelihood estimator share the same “sandwich”-type second moment. Based on the LI-QL we can develop inference methods that are useful for practical applications under possible model misspecification. In particular, we can develop the Bayesian counterparts of classical QL methods that carry all the nice features of the latter studied in White (1982). In addition, we can develop a Bayesian method for analyzing model specification based on an LI-QL. 相似文献
97.
We examine the impact of natural disasters on GDP per capita by applying the synthetic control approach and using a within-country perspective. Our analysis encompasses two large-scale earthquakes that occurred in two different Italian regions in 1976 and 1980. We show that the short-term effects are negligible in both regions, though they become negative if we simulate the GDP that would have been observed in absence of financial aid. In the long-term, our findings indicate a positive effect in one case and a negative effect in the other, largely reflecting divergent patterns of the TFP. Consistent with these findings, we offer further evidence suggesting that a quake and related financial aid might either increase technical efficiency via a disruptive creation mechanism or reduce it by stimulating corruption, distorting the markets and deteriorating social capital. Finally, we show that the bad outcome is more likely to occur in regions with lower pre-quake institutional quality. As a result, our evidence suggests that unanticipated local shocks are likely to change long run growth rates, exacerbating territorial disparities. 相似文献
98.
We develop models for examining possible predictors of growth of China's foreign exchange reserves that embrace Chinese and global trade, financial and risk (uncertainty) factors. Specifically, by comparing with other alternative models, we show that the dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS) models outperform not only linear models (such as random walk, recursive OLS-AR(1) models, recursive OLS with all predictive variables models) but also the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model for examining possible predictors of growth of those reserves. The DMS is the best overall across all forecast horizons. While some predictors matter more than others over the forecast horizons, there are few that stand the test of time. The US–China interest rate differential has a superior predictive power among the 13 predictors considered, followed by the nominal effective exchange rate and the interest rate spread for most of the forecast horizons. The relative predictive prowess of the oil and copper prices alternates, depending on the commodity cycles. Policy implications are also provided. 相似文献
99.
汤勇 《北京市经济管理干部学院学报》2011,26(4):65-66,70
本文通过对中德汽车专业职业教育培训特点的比较,提出建立新型职业技术教育培训模式的具体建议。 相似文献
100.
Gunter Maris 《Statistica Neerlandica》2005,59(1):70-81
We show that for the purpose of testing a classical null hypothesis the posterior predictive check of Rubin (1984) may be inadequate. This inadequacy is caused by the estimation of the nuisance parameters under the null hypothesis. We show that this problem can be solved if the parameters are estimated under the encompassing model. 相似文献