组织人力资源管理部门设置实证研究——基于北京市的非随机抽样调查

组织人力资源管理部门的重要性虽然日益得到认可,但是否独立设置人力资源管理部门却缺乏实证性研究。通过对调查问卷的分析,发现近80%的组织独立设置了人力资源管理部门。再通过进一步的计量分析,发现一个组织是否独立设置人力资源管理部门与其人员规模和从事人力资源管理工作人数具有顺序效应,并进而构建了人力资源管理部门设置的二值Logistic回归模型     

Export Intensity and Plant Characteristics: What Can We Learn from Quantile Regression?

Using quantile regression and a rich cross section data set for German manufacturing plants this paper documents that the impact of plant characteristics on export activities varies along the conditional size distribution of the export/sales ratio. For example, firm size is statistically significant at a conventional level for the 0.25 quantile only; branch plant status matters at the upper tail of the conditional distribution of the export/sales ratio only; the craft shop dummy is only significant for the very top quantile; and patents do not matter at the very lower end of the conditional distribution of export over sales. This has implications both for understanding what makes a successful exporter, and for the design of policy measures with a focus on supporting exporters. JEL no. F10, D21, L60     

保险业增长预测中数量经济模型的应用研究

科学合理地预测保险业的发展状况，对于明确保险业未来的总体发展目标和战略重点。促进保险业持续健康发展，具有十分重大的意义。本文以内蒙古自治区保险业为例，通过对2006年-2010年内蒙古自治区保费收入的增长预测，提出了综合运用多元线性回归模型和霍尔特指数平滑法进行保险增长预测的预测方法。与传统预测方法相比，它能更好地保证保险增长预测的精确度。     

Respondent direct experience and contingent willingness to pay for new commodities: a switching endogenous interval regression analysis

Most environmental economists argue that direct experience with the good being valuated, or with similar goods, is a precondition for providing valid willingness to pay (WTP) responses to contingent valuation questions. Two questions are posed in this article. The first is whether previous use experience of a resource (Séné nature reserve) similar to that being valuated (future nature reserves) and located in the same geographical area (Gulf of Morbihan) impacts on WTP. The second is whether accounting for the endogeneity of direct experience matters in the estimation of WTP. We find that respondents who have not experienced the Séné nature reserve provide value estimates that are statistically comparable to that of respondents who have experienced it. Our assumption is that respondents have acquired sufficient and adequate experience of future nature reserves from the questionnaire that experience obtained by experiencing the Séné nature reserve was not necessary for making a valid value formulation. Hence, aggregation of WTP estimates to obtain a total valuation of the future nature reserves is reasonable over the full target population. In addition, our results show that direct experience is endogenously determined; but controlling for the endogeneity has a marginal effect on WTP estimates.     

Geography of Italian student mobility: A network analysis approach

Understanding the phenomenon of intra- and international student mobility has become increasingly relevant to the organization of tertiary education systems. Using microdata information provided by the Italian National Student Archive on the cohorts of students enrolled at university in the academic years 2011–12 and 2014–15, we consider a network analysis approach to investigate the incoming and outgoing student flows between territories and universities. More specifically, the paper aims to shed light on the dynamics of Italian student mobility networks at both the bachelor's and master's degree levels by considering attractiveness indicators combined with network centrality measures, clustering techniques for network data and explanatory models. We analyze the partition of the global network structure by means of blockmodeling analysis and we explain the determinants of the differences among universities in attracting students adopting a quantile regression analysis.     

城乡收入差距影响因素的非参数逐点回归解析

文章利用1987-2008年我国的相关统计数据构建了非参数面板数据模型,采用非参数逐点回归估计方法,估计了我国的教育投入、教育产出、城市化水平、经济开放度、产业结构和政府经济行为等变量对城乡收入差距的影响,刻画了各影响因素关于自变量系数的动态演进趋势。研究表明:各影响因素关于自变量系数的逐点估计结果共有四种类型:"倒U型"、"U型"、"上升型"和"下降型";各影响因素对缩小城乡收入差距都有积极的作用,但在不同时期所起的作用不同。     

经济新常态下金融包容与产业结构转型——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

在经济新常态背景下,产业结构面临重大调整,金融包容的融入,使中小企业或个人能够获得价格合理、方便快捷的金融资源,扶持创业创新发展,形成新的增长动力。本文基于1995～2012年中国31个省市的相关数据,运用面板数据模型和分位数回归方法,深入探讨金融包容对产业结构转型的影响。结果表明,金融包容与产业结构转型具有显著的正向关系,并且在不同分位点上金融包容水平对产业结构转型表现出较强的解释力,随着产业结构向高级化发展,金融包容在产业结构转型升级中的作用逐步凸显。经济增长、教育发展、财政支出规模和城市化水平均对产业结构转型具有促进作用,而过多的物质资本投入不利于产业结构转型。     

Distributional assumptions and a test of the dual labor market hypothesis

Recent application of the switching regression model to allocate workers into the primary and secondary labor markets is considered to be the best solution to the classification problem of the empirical testing of the dual labor market theory. In such models, normality of the error terms is assumed. This paper adopts the switching regression model to test the dual labor market theory by assuming different distributions of the error terms. The test results strongly support the dual labor market theory regardless of the assumption one makes about the error terms. However, the results indicate that different distribution can lead to different percentage distributions of workers in the two segments. In particular, the normal distribution generates more workers in the primary segment than the non-normal distributions. Therefore, care must be taken not to generalize the type of industries or occupations that fall under the primary and secondary segments. First version received: October 2000/Final version received: March 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  I would like to thank Kevin Lang, Robert Marshall, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. I am grateful for comments received from the session participants of the Western Economic Association International Conference, San Francisco, CA, June 28–July 2, 1996, and the Midwest Economic Association Conference, Kansas City, 1997. I thank George Bonney, the Chief Statistician of Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia for his comments. Any remaining errors are my responsibility. I gratefully acknowledge financial support from Penn State Research and Development Grant, 1995.     

安徽省主要城市工业用电效率及影响因素分析--基于DEA及Tobit两阶段模型

随着节约型社会的构建,安徽省不断加大对能源使用效率的监督和管理力度,为了明确安徽省近年来工业用电效率及其影响因素,采用数据包络及托宾回归模型对2004-2011年安徽省17个主要城市工业用电效率进行评价和分析。研究结果表明：（1）自2004年以来,安徽省主要城市工业用电效率一直处在上升阶段,但是与最优水平仍存在一定差距,同时还发现工业增加值与用电效率之间并不存在显著关系;（2）工业经济发达城市唯有依靠技术效率来提升用电效率,工业经济欠发达城市则需通过规模经济来实现用电效率的改善。（3）对外开放水平、节电意识、科技水平以及政府支出对工业用电效率有正向影响。